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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Retro that trough offshore of the PAC NW for 1/25....pops that little rockies ridge.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Block definitely seem to start breaking down around 1/25-1/26 which could perhaps lend to something larger....NAO doesn't totally go positive in the days following that, there is still a lot of weakness up in the Davis Strait, but the actual mega block is gone by then.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Heh, you are right about that...when you look at the loop of 11/18 the day before, you can see SNE is kind of straddling the 0C 850 isothemr with little gradient on the sfc plot....so yeah prob that upper 40s to near 50F type calm day that conceals what is merely 18 hours away to the west. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1986/us1118.php
  4. ORH_wxman
    SYZYGY is when you have celestial bodies lining up....most common is Sun/earth/moon but other planets can be included in that. It makes the tides pretty extreme.
  5. ORH_wxman
    EPS showing the miller B potential on Jan 21-22....they are liking Jan 25-26 too.
  6. ORH_wxman
    There's been a slight warming trend from yesterday....but I think S VT and maybe N Berks are in a good spot. Would be fun to be at Beast for this event to see if they can grab 8-10" of paste.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Not to nitpick, but I think the storm you are referring to was 1987. It was 1/2/87. That storm matches your description of both being during SYZGZY and also a 1-2 foot paste bomb back in the 495 belt. I do think you have also mentioned a "little critter" from earlier that winter on several occasions. November 19, 1986 had a fast moving clipper-esque system that redeveloped off NJ and blasted us with 6-10" when the forecast was for only an inch or two.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Lets just do a repeat of Jan '05....we get the 2-4" clipper appetizer 2 days before the next clipper detonates into a nuke that forever lives in James Nichols' lore.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Legit arctic antecedent airmass ahead of it too....there's plenty of baroclinicity to work with. There's good potential on that one if it can dig.
  10. ORH_wxman
    I think he's assuming no phase....like the 00z run...it's close enough to be an annoying piece of shit and pumping the SE ridge to put the northern stream into the meat grinder.....while the 12z run being further west with it gives a more relaxed gradient in the east for the northern stream to dig in.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it gives the northern stream more room to dig with less SE ridge pumped up ahead of it.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Here is the 00z vs 12z Euro on just the northern stream difference
  13. ORH_wxman
    I wouldn't sell 1/22 yet...that could easily turn into a pure northern stream system. Euro is trying for the Miller B this run as it is.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I'm def watching that one. I know it's not THAT exciting since no models actually show it going to town right now, but it's really close. Wouldn't take much for a little blow up into a decent little event.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Turning it into solely a northern stream deal isn't the worst alternative....those are a lot easier to trend significantly at a shorter lead time since they are usually coming from some horrible data-sparse region.
  16. ORH_wxman
  17. ORH_wxman
    Yeah the 1/20 clipper
  18. ORH_wxman
    It's def a great upslope pattern coming up...you have the obvious signal behind the current storm system, but then the shortwave that passes through early next week is going to set off another round of upslope just as the first round is dying down....sort of reinvigorates it. Then behind that, you have the clipper shortwave for middle of next week....at the very least, if you don't get a few inches of synoptic snow, the upslope machine is going to wring out any of the moister associated with it.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Heh...that's kind of what happened in the 1/26-27/15 blizzard. Thing was cooked and in Bermuda at 72h lead.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Agreed....I'll bet his net gain is 6"+....he will have probably close to a foot or more on the ground afterward.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Absolutely....we want that thing to throw everything it has at us and dare it to move the block. You'll get a truckload of moisture running into a brick wall.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Also looks like it didn't want to phase the southwest energy into the system like yesterday's run. Yep....it's not uncommon at all in that type of pattern. You are obsessing over a "larger" threat a week out and then you get ambushed inside of 4 days by a sniper hiding in the flow.
  23. ORH_wxman
    I wouldn't totally sleep on the 1/20 clipper either...smart bet is that it is no big deal, but some of the runs are pretty close to popping that a bit on the scenarios where vortmax tracks under us. You can get solid advisory type snows on that type of setup.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Injection lows can cause positive busts. I recall one on 2/18/14 down here. Forecast was advisory 3-5 stuff with maybe marginal warning in S NH. Widespread warning snows happened in N CT through a lot of MA. So for those who are in the cross hairs of where that little firehouse of precip runs into resistance, it can produce.
  25. ORH_wxman
    The Saturday low is kind of a classic injection low setup. Those can be really nice if you stay snow. Up by Phin could really rake it in for a few hours on that setup.
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