ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Guys go into the banter thread to complain about moderation. There’s probably nothing worse in a pattern thread than whining about which posts were deleted and which ones weren’t.
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They are ok....-PNA/-NAO through 3rd week of Feb and then it seems to transition to more gradient with lower heights in SE Canada by end of month.
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EPS still trying to get more ridging out west for early February....we'll see if that sticks because that would provide a chance for something bigger. Note the lower heights down in the gulf....less SE ridge and less meat grinder.
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EPS actually looked slightly north of 06z for 1/26
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Yep, we've had plenty of similar patterns that produce...I'm talking longwave patterns. Obviously the synoptics haven't worked out. But nobody cares unless it's snowing, lol. It's like trying to convince people in northern CT or interior MA that January 2006 was a putrid pattern....2 feet of snowfall, lol.
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We are due for the latter too. Anyways, I def wouldn't sell 1/26 yet. Not like the Euro went way south...it was a subtle change with the lobe in central Canada and those seem to flip around each run.
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Fatties
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The blocking is going to run the show. Whatever happens up there will determine how far north this one gets. You could see on this run that the western PV lobe in central Canada got elongated and stretched more which then linked up with the Nova Scotia low and made it tough to get downstream ridging.
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Meat grinder this run. It's a subtle change, but when you're on the edge, it means a lot in sensible wx.
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Euro looks like it's gonna be more suppressed this run for 1/26.
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ORH with the rare moderate snow obs these days KORH 211754Z 21008KT 1/2SM R11/3000V4500FT SN FZFG VV012 M05/M07 A2963 RMK AO2 SLP051 P0001 60001 T10501072 11039 21089 56029
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Way north....thats advisory into C NH.
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Historically a -PNA/-NAO pattern is actually pretty good for us. Though December seems to benefit the most from it....but Jan/Feb are also favorable. We're just enduring a Jan '69 at the moment...hopefully it turns.
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Yes....still squashed overall though
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We've heard them in the woods out back here. One time, they woke us up at about 2am...I think they were attacking something because it sounded spooky...a bunch of high pitched abbreviated yelps/howls and it sounded like something dying/groaning in between the yelps.
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This was the 00z run.
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18z eps was pretty decent looking...one more bump north would be ideal though...it’s good that primary is trying to rip up into Ohio...would like to get it tickling CLE eventually
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Yeah the upside of this is probably about what that storm was. Obviously everything would have to go right but that one had the sfc low almost into CLE before redeveloping. I’d be happy with a solid advisory event at this point just so we don’t have to go another two weeks with bare ground.
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18z gfs gets an inch or two into SNE now. Hopefully the 00z suite gets another bump north.
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Looks like ORH got a nice little burst to whiten things. Not seeing any real good "clusters" though....lack of more organized lift as mentioned upthread is what is keeping this from being a higher end WINDEX.
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3/01 wasn't pasty either until maybe you got onto the beaches....really only Dec '92 or April '97 was in terms of a HECS. I was more listing storms that had ptype issues on the coast that hammered inland. A HECS paste job is a rare unicorn.
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12/1-3/19, 3/7/18, and 2/13/14 were a few in the last 5-6 winters that were tough along the coast that were 12"+ inland.
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Nobody remembers the Jan 1969s or the 4 weeks of nothing after blizzard of '78 or the putrid stretch between the December 1992 storm and the next one in mid-Jan 1993.....those get forgotten easily when you cash in at some point. They only get remembered if the winter never recovers.
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Yeah you are probably in the least favorable spot in all of SNE for 1/26....further NE is bad in that setup. But trend it north another tick and it s a moot point.
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EPS really likes 1/31. Pretty luke warm on 1/29. For 1/26 they are a touch south of the OP run, but keeping us in the game.
