ORH_wxman

Gotta get out to Tahoe this week. One of those 100” weeks incoming.

GGEM making a run at 1/29 as well. Not quite enough but that’s interesting at least.

Totally different than other guidance and the 12z run up north. Amazing how it changes from run to run. Prob irrelevant north of the pike but for your area it matters a lot.

Actually scrapes SNE now. I was surprised to see how far north H5 was just looking now.

GFS was marginally better for 1/26 too even if it was still a crap result....it’s getting that shortwave pretty far north off to our west now. That’s a trend we want to see.

There’s a decent band in NY with a lot of PVA to the west so it’s a little more interesting than the previous runs imho.

Keep forgetting 18z stops at 90h but that looks pretty decent for at least CT trying to extrapolate. Might be ok for pike too.

18z Euro coming in more amped. We’ll see if this is good for CT at least.

18z GFS was a mild improvement. Def still need to watch this in CT especially.

12z EPS:

3 of the seasons since 2016 have been La Ninas too which favor SE ridge anyway. Though I will point out how convenient it was for the first half of this January the Hadley cell high gradient was nowhere to be found when we needed it.

This is kind of a loaded question? When do you define "since climate change?" Because ORH had like 3 consecutive 40"+ Februarys from 2013-2015....also 2 Januarys of 45"+ (2011 and 2015). Did CC start in 2016? Or maybe it's just 5 years doesn't mean a whole lot. 11 out of 15 Jan/Feb combos from 1979 to 1993 failed to produce a single 20" month (meaning both January and February were below 20" in the same winter). Since 2000-2001, only 5 winters out of 20 have been able to match that same feat where both Jan/Feb each were below 20" in the same winter. We've had two in a row...this year would be 3. We've been spoiled rotten for a couple decades and now we're eating a little regression pie.

Yeah this is part of my "evidence-based argument" that I have seen lacking. I've seen a few theories like "when we get a cold pattern in October, we often see regime shifts every 4-6 weeks which line up for a poor early winter"....well, some of these patterns weren't even that cold, more like cold shots in an otherwise normal/mild October (both 2020 and 2011 qualify). But even if that wasn't the case, 2020 just blew that argument to pieces with a good December pattern for snow including our largest region-wide snowstorm since 2018 or maybe even 2015. But you can test the regime change theory anyway....it would say that cold Octobers should correlate significantly to shitty winters. But they don't.

Sure, but two problems: 1. It's a sample of like 4-5 occurrences between 2000 and 2020. 2. What part of climate change would make October snowfall more likely to produce a poor winter? I'm open to the concept, but I haven't seen a good evidence-based argument yet. Until I do, I'm not going to adopt it as a logical theory.

I didn't worry. There's no evidence to support it matters. The October snow myth is like a gambling junkie convincing himself that because the roulette table went 4 reds in a row, the 5th has to be a red too. It's based on recency bias....people are scarred from 2011 and 2009, but don't look at 2002 or 2000.

Almost time for warm bum-bum posts.

Pretty similar to 00z....12z yesterday was zonked crazy and that's what we want to get back to.

Oh that was Jan 3rd and 4th....you kept saying New Years Day. 4-8" wasn't forecasted ever in that one though. We were hoping it might turn into that type of storm a couple days out, but it never got better.

Also, that first week of February is pretty interesting to me still. You have more of an east based -NAO and some ridging out west. 2/1 looks kind of cutter-ish, but after that one looks more favorable....2/1 is still pretty close to the west-based blocking breaking down though, so it could end up flatter too.

Which storm are you referring to?

Man, that is some sweet fronto band over S tier of NY....congrats BGM again. Just need to maintain that slightly longer to the east.

Ray advocating for hoping for a 4" crusty SWFE in February.....never thought I'd see the day.

Sure, nobody argued they weren't? But your chances are way higher with downstream blocking than without which is why I'd never choose the non-block scenario unless it was prefaced with a 2015 PNA ridge....which isn't happening anyway during a February mod La Nina.

Downstream blocking slows down the flow which is what you want for a bigger event. I'd definitely roll the dice with that rather than hope we get well-timed highs in a SE ridge fast-flow pattern.

Ha, if a garbage pattern would produce 4 SWFEs....that's an important assumption.