ORH_wxman
-
Posts
90,902 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by ORH_wxman
-
Euro came in better at 06z again. Actually gets measurable snow for most of SNE now. Granted it’s mostly under an inch except maybe a little more around Luke’s ‘hood in SW CT, but I’d still watch this one because if that shortwave maintains just a little more curl (and it’s been trending that way), then a nice little surprise band of solid advisory is certainly plausible.
-
2/1 looks really good on the ensembles. Only 8 days away! In all seriousness, the failed 1/29 system phasing offshore with the PV lobe is actually causing the 2/1 system to come in more favorable on last night’s guidance.
-
Yeah there’s been some historic turds in January. I remember a couple of those (1992 and 1989) during a horrific 4 year stretch. We've been lucky not to have anything that bad recently though 2007 comes close.
-
Nah. ORH is at 3.6” and here are the top 10 least snowiest Trace 1955 0.8” 1980 0.9” 1911 1.1” 1913 1.8” 1969 2.0” 1962 2.5” 1967 2.7” 1992 2.8” 1989 3.8” 1934
-
Looked worse than 12z. 1/29 has so many problems with it. I’m not ready to say “ain’t happening James” just yet given it’s 5+ days out, but we’re almost there. Need to see this trend solidly tonight or tomorrow 12z imho.
-
It was better for 1/26 but it’s been so cruddy that it needs more improvement than that.
-
Big bump north on GFS. Need to get Euro on board.
-
-
18z JV models north again for 1/26. The icon is actually kind of hilarious. Gets advisory snows into powderfreak land. Warning snows for pike region.
-
EPS improved for 1/29. Not just over 06z but also over 00z (which has been a little better than 06z)
-
Not optimistic there or for Ginxy. Too far east. It’s possible that advisory snows happen that far northeast but we’d need to see something more like the Ukie or one of the JV models.
-
Your ceiling is higher than that. It’s a fine like between shredded flurries and perhaps a nice solid advisory band there.
-
1/29 does look better this run. Still a whiff but it improved a lot.
-
Watch it in CT. Esp Luke’s hood.
-
Euro coming in better for 1/26. Still needs work but that was a nice trend.
-
Gonna be hard to get that type of trend with this blocking in place. Best chance is to keep that PV lobe in central Canada close enough that it may try and inject a little energy into it or at least be far enough west that it bumps up the heights downstream in Quebec.
-
Actually had a decent little weenie band for the pike region.
-
Oh yeah for sure. Eastern areas are in the worst spot. For here I’m kind of hoping for something that extends from like ALB and goes ESE across my area....but the best chance for something bigger is def down in CT..esp SW CT.
-
It is kind of amazing just how close synoptically we are to two warning criteria storms within 3 days of each other. One of them potentially a KU.
-
Nope. Was more amped to the west at 108 but the vortex then trends in from the northeast to block it at the perfect time.
-
1/29 might be interesting on GGEM
-
I’d def still watch for a surprise on that system. You can see how it would work out...you keep a kink in that h5 shortwave as it crosses SNE longitude rather than becoming almost totally flat. When the little curl is maintained, those are the solutions that spit out 0.4 or 0.5 qpf.
-
1/29 has a way higher ceiling if it somehow get north but I also think it’s less likely to get you shovelable snow than 1/26 where you are. I actually think you have a realistic shot at a decent band down there with the first system. 1/29 seems like it needs more help.
-
GFS isn’t buying it. Lol. Ukie was decent for you last night though. In the end though, we all really know that the euro needs to show the trend.
-
Nice bump north for you on the JV models so far at 12z. ICON and RGEM. You aren’t done yet for 12/26. Now just need the varsity team to come on board here to believe the trend.
