ORH_wxman

TT of 66 and 400 joules of sfc CAPE.

Are we thinking 48 hours of moderate to heavy snow still or maybe scale back to 40?

Look at the TTs.....LOL. Frequent and dangerous lightning to go with 6-10" per hour?

Yes....definitely a chance of a surprise there. I'd think they are in good shape to get at least an inch or two...but hopefully they exceed that.

That’s always been a threat for you on Cape Ann. Hopefully it pans out and someone gets a 6 spot or something. I love following those little meso-bombs when they happen. I’d prob keep expectations low there but hope for a surprise.

Yes....that is empirically true. A number of reasons....cryospheric maturation up north, SSTs much colder in Feb than Dec, etc.

There's some surface CAD in front of that system, so it's unlikely to be like the Xmas storm. I suppose there's always a chanc,e but that one was pretty unique in how unimpeded it was.

Lol...it's not nearly as bad as it was back in early January....but it's not like this really strong gradient ala Feb 2013. The fact we achieve deep layer easterly flow mitigates a lot of the "worry" over something really hideous anyway. That's a really impressive look. But it just is unlikely to be this more compact classic looking storm with a commahead/deformation over central or western New England while the dryslot is over the Cape....it won't be like that. It will probably have a deformation back over NY State while we are getting firehosed....that happened in March 2001 for example.

The short answer is weaker thermal gradients cause the geopotential heights to be further apart. Not a surprise in this setup though because we have the big omega-ish block up in Quebec/Ontario in front of the system. That said, the entire H5 low could trend stronger and more compact as we get closer...we're still 6 days out.

Yeah it's very broad...tighten it up and we'd have a really high end potentially historic storm rather than simply a "very good" storm that croaks us for 12-16 hours. Not that I wouldn't sign up for the latter right now if offered....

I don't see the moderate to heavy stuff lasting longer than that really anywhere including NNE.

The deformation stuff this run is back across central/upsate NY....this is a huge circulation....this is really about a 12-18 hour storm for SNE with a really powerful firehose coming off the atlantic. Then it would prob be another 18-24 hours of garbage off and on flakes/crapola. It's a really good storm....but my guess is it wouldn't match our true top dogs if we're trying to compare here. Get that H5 low to tighten up a little bit and then it might be.

cm....make sure you specfiy units.

This thing might go nuts in a frame or two...that's a lot of northern stream about to inject into the trough.

The trough def looks better on this run vs 00z...more robust.

Yeah I'm not sure how many big dog miller Bs are truly100% northern stream....maybe Jan '05? I think even 12/9/05 had a turd shooting up from the gulf of mexico. I'd have to go back and look at some earlier ones.

I would prob count '78 as northern stream....I mean, almost any miller B probably has some semblance of a remnant turd in the southern stream that meandered it's way from Las Vegas. They do help, but are generally minor players. OTOH, storms like Feb 2013 or January 2011 had more distinct southern stream entities engulfed that were major players.

My guess is everyone west of 495 is likely done with accumulations....decent chance anyone west of 128/95 is done. Euro is trying to give another inch or two of arctic fluff into eastern MA on Friday. We'll still have to follow that.

I mean, it's almost non-existent on the H5 charts...maybe technically there was a leftover entity that helped focus the cyclogenesis, but I don't think it was very significant in the scheme of the '78 storm. Feb '13 on the other hand had a major southern stream player that the northern stream phased with.

Euro likes eastern areas tonight and early tomorrow...it's most robust period is the south shore tomorrow morning though. Suggests another 1-2 inches there.

Pattern is getting to him

I really want to see what his weather station thinks the 7 day forecast is.

Feb '78 was basically all northern stream. Feb '13 had southern stream involvement.

I agree the -EPO signal is getting louder and louder. Euro weeklies were trying to hint at it the past couple runs, but not totally biting....however, as you hinted at in previous posts, that product probably can't really "see" the SSW consequences yet...or at least at the time they couldn't. Wouldn't be surprised if next run it shows a more robust signal for week 2 since the cross-guidance ensemble suites are all starting to show it at the end of their respective runs the last couple of days...and it's a pretty robust look too.

He uses those awful sideways maps from France or some random european country.