ORH_wxman

This is the type of system where you might see a big CT river shadow out in W MA and then another localized max on east slope of Berks if the ML stuff stays mostly to their east. That would leave them mostly dealing with the firehose which has more terrain influence.

Yes...the highest risk is marginal temp thumps....the model will often try and keep sfc temps at 34F or something and in reality it cools to 31-32F. I think in the Euro's case, it is not showing exceptionally heavy rates on the 6 hourly QPF....so this probably helps the model keep sfc temps in that 34-35F range for a chunk of interior SE MA rather than closer to 32F as it has pretty good BL flow out of the due east. My guess is in reality, that is going to be colder if they are getting mod to heavy snow....but if rates are kind of meh, like 0.07-0.08 per hour stuff in the bucket...then they could certainly struggle somewhat early on.

I'd bet a little east...on the east side of ORH hill spine.

I'm skeptical of like 35F in Foxborugh with 925 temps of -2C to -3C. I'd think that type of lapse rate is only going to happen right near the water.

E CT is prob a good spot for some deformation goodies even though they are west of the max QPF.

Yeah I love the N stream insert going on...it's gonna back in nicely i think

Shitstreak is stronger....though N stream is diving in better too, so this might be a late bloomer/left hook.

This is still one of the more hilarious terms that was created this season.

GGEM lost the cutter....buried the energy offshore of CA.

Wide right turn and then it comes almost due north to still hit many very good...but that trend is following what we saw on the 00z and 06z EPS.

GGEM is going to be SE of the 00z run.

It would be helpful if more northern stream energy injected...ala Euro.

Yeah you have at least 90 minutes until the Euro does.

Tickled SE of 06z.

If it's a radiational cooling night, he will be colder than you is what he is saying.

Yes...clearly 25-50 miles can make a big difference. L'm just not all of the sudden expecting to see a storm 400 miles SE or tracking over Scooter's fanny. I think the goalposts are relatively narrow for this time range.

The main shortwave is mostly onshore in CA, but still a little bit remains offshore. By 00z the entire thing will be onshore. I don't expect drastic changes though.

NAM would def be good for a lot of SNE...might be a little thin in NW MA extrapolating, but for most of the region, that is a nice look.

Yeah I think that is too longitude dependent. I'd tilt that whole thing to to the right at least enough to put the great lakes BN.

Nothing can top the grinch storm of 2020....I've onyl seen something like that maybe once or twice. The Jan 19-20, 1996 storm and maybe Jan 30-31, 2013.

For most of the country or just NE? Looks pretty cold in the northern tier to me. We could go either way here.

Still hoping the GFS suite has the right idea on the cutter....lot of CAD sig showing up there. Euro was pretty ugly though.

Yes, each passing cycle makes the OP runs more useful. Ensembles will still be more skilled but not by a lot. .

Both storms had a similar axis of heaviest snow....'15 might have been just a smidge west of Mar '18....the latter basically had the huge totals stop at Windham county up to ORH. But yeah, this one looks less prolific than either storm at the moment. Could still change, but that elongated upper low look definitely puts a cap on this....we need it to fatten up again.

No it's not....in terms of placement of best deform axis. (3/13/18)