ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Hopefully something like 12z NAM verifies. That was much better for a larger area and still cold enough for most SE areas to see snow.
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GFS looks a bit SE of 06z.
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RGEM tries to get a thin layer around 725mb above freezing, LOL. I was wondering why Ptype algorthms were showing like ORH mixing despite 850 temps of -7C and 925 temps colder than -3C. Even sfc was 30-31F. Trying to give a SWFE sounding despite H7 flow out of the SE.
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Lol what is the RGEM doing. So different aloft. Cuts off h5 and massively deepens it well Southwest.
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Yeah it does seem that way. Jan ‘15 and Jan ‘11 both did. Jan ‘05 did it on ‘roids and I got like 7” in 2 hours. Lol. If we can get trend the h5 low staying south and a little less elongated, that will increase the chances of some goodies at the end. But if all I get is a 12 hour ‘roided-up WCB, I cant complain.
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We get dryslotted after about 66 hours until the ML goods try and rotate back through at the very end of the run. I can’t complain about a dryslot though in this one if you are getting 12 hours of firehose-enhanced WCB.
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Yeah SNE is destroyed by the firehose that is enhancing the already-good WCB north of the bent back ML warm front...and it’s slow going through SNE. Like a solid 10-12 hours rather than the usual 4-7h thump. The ML goodies end up eventually stopping and pivoting up in CNE/NNE. They actually try to rotate back through SNE at the end of the run.
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Wow that’s an absolute annihilation on the NAM for a good chunk of SNE.
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NAM definitely east through 48h compared to 06z.
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Yeah they used to be decent for synoptic winter events when they consisted of RSM and ETA members. But now they are mostly convective models.
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Almost looks like a firehose north of a bent-back ML warm front. The fetch from the east on the north side of it is really impressive.
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You may struggle in the valley compared to further east or in the Berks. You should still get a solid storm though.
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EPS lost the cutter Hopefully it doesn’t come back.
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I like where I am too for getting absolutely firehosed for about 8-10 hours.
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Yeah that’s prob a good way to put it. If the ULL looked more like the RGEM it would be a longer duration event. But it’s a bit of an outlier in that regard. Most of the guidance elongates this thing aloft and keeps it moving steadily even if not super fast.
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Deformation on that 06z run is back over MSS and SLK. This is definitely more like a 12-15 hour storm in terms of the real accumulating stuff.
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Yeah we want the euro solution. This would be fine...it’s actually a pretty sweet look for about 8-10 hours...but prob like 8-12” in a big front end thump and then dryslotted with shredded snow showers for another 12-18 hours.
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Elongated h5 big time. Storm is mostly 12 hours for the goods.
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Funny you point that out because that is a lot how Mar 2013 looked too. Saw this QPF Max over coastal E MA. To be fair, this firehose doesn’t look as prolific as that one but it’s still impressive.
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It’s not a very rapidly deepening system when you look aloft. It’s strengthening but not bombing out. So that sort of limits the magnitude of the lift. However, I’ve noticed that models will sometimes under forecast QPF in favored areas on deep layer easterly flow so we'll have to see how it looks as we get closer.
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Wow nice looking euro run. Getting more peeps in on the goods.
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It’s also 3+ days out still for much of the region. It’s always easier increase as you get closer than back off from a public reaction standpoint.
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Euro was kind of east in the mid-Atlantic. Didn’t have the PA jack. More like SE NJ
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So close, yet so far...we’ll see if CHH can grab a couple though
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Maybe CHH to ACK can get clipped by some of the better stuff
