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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    I’d be shocked if we went through a large chunk of Feb with an El Niño N PAC pattern but stranger things have happened. My guess is we revert back to RNA/-EPO pattern as we go into February. That can still be ok but you risk SE ridge getting too stout which happens frequently in Niña Februarys.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Almost get a classic El Nino N PAC there late in the ensembles with an Aleutian low and +PNA ridge.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Coldest temps I’ve ever seen modeled here. Granted it’s total clown range but that is crazy historic cold.
  4. ORH_wxman
    You were Arnold in Commando a few years ago and now you’re the dude from Indiana Jones and the last Crusade who drinks from the wrong cup.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Ok these are the cold events that @dendrite and I like to track. Cold worth tracking. Pure clown range fantasy but it’s so anomalous its worth posting…. Not sure I’ve seen -30C at 925 over such a large area. This would be almost perfect too if the timing happened this way because you wouldn’t get the cheap midnight high. Real push arrives between 00z-06z and its so strong that we get like a Xmas 1980 type daytime with highs near -10F even over interior SNE.
  6. ORH_wxman
    EPS actually looked slightly better vs 00z…that isn’t saying much though. But it gets 1-2” to south shore area and Cape.
  7. ORH_wxman
    The irony in the 1/18 disaster….model guidance today got a lot more interesting for next week and weekend. Some legit hits showing up. Ensembles have always liked this period so let’s see if they bag a win.
  8. ORH_wxman
    @CoastalWx
  9. ORH_wxman
    Lots of “interest” these days but can never bring home the bacon. Whether it’s the models or FSG, same idea.
  10. ORH_wxman
    NAM looks totally different and starts it predawn. Most of the euro stuff is afternoon/early evening. Most other guidance is closer to euro on evolution of Saturday stuff.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Hopefully they can get another 6”+ event like last year.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Yeah could start at 33-35ish but 925 is like -2 or -3 so should easily wetbulb/latently cool down to 31-32. I’m a little skeptical of sfc warming from like 28 to 35 though over interior in a few hours….esp high terrain.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Yeah that’s the best chance of getting everything covered before the cold shot early next week. Esp for central and western areas. Eastern areas will have more trouble Saturday and they have a better chance of getting a few inches from the actual coastal.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Watch 00z trend hard back west again.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Euro actually has a nice slug of snow Saturday PM from Kevin up through ORH county. Could be a solid 2-3
  16. ORH_wxman
    OP euro looks like a clean whiff. Might be the furthest east now.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Yep. One of them is gonna crash and burn and it’s prob gonna be the AI guidance. But no guarantees. We wait and see.
  18. ORH_wxman
    In a synoptic threat 3-4 days out, it’s going to be extremely tough to defeat the Euro/GFS and their ensembles if they are in close agreement. I’d want to see the 12z euro improve at least…otherwise I’d be more inclined to punt the AIs. However, a 70/30 compromise in favor of the OP models will still produce some accumulating snow in eastern zones, but obviously not a big event.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Gonna be a couple threats next week…Friday looking like the most threatening, but perhaps a smaller one on Wednesday. Most are focused on the 1/18 failure, but next week may fly under the radar until then.
  20. ORH_wxman
    GEFS are pretty damned close to EPS now as well. A little better than the OP runs but not by a lot. Maybe an inch or two for eastern areas.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Wagons east on the Ukie. Whiff.
  22. ORH_wxman
    You could argue it never bought into the deep ULL traveling south of us for 1/15 when the other guidance was trying to show it. It turned out more correct. But that wasn’t nearly as high stakes imho than this one. This one is definitely more of a fundamental difference. I’m skeptical AI will score the coup but this is a good test.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Yeah that’s actually a tick worse than 06z. No difference to us, but at least 06z was getting outer Cape and islands into decent stuff.
  24. ORH_wxman
    This is actually the best test yet because we have definitive camps for the AI models on both GFS and Euro. Big difference in the same direction between OP runs and the skynet runs.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Pretty much on par with 06z on OP run. Skynet actually trended better.
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