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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Not sold yet though. Hrrr still hideous. Rap still hideous.
  2. ORH_wxman
    12z NAM came in decently healthier for this afternoon.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Might be C-1” inside of 128. Even here could struggle for an inch but that depends on if we get some better enhancement in the evening for about 2-3 hours. Won’t surprise me though if we get skunked given the last few years.
  4. ORH_wxman
    NAM being so dry is starting to be a little bit of a red flag I don’t think I’d change anything though over interior. Still prob 1-3”. Maybe if GFS and Euro jump ship.
  5. ORH_wxman
    BL gets kind of marginal down there. Prob flakes but could be white rain for a while. If you had some decent omega punching into the snow growth region, then it would prob rip. But this is a pretty weak system.
  6. ORH_wxman
    He’s so close to water which may be an issue for a time until winds go more N or NW. Light snow and 33-34 might struggle.
  7. ORH_wxman
    That was a very cold run. Very few torches. 12/28 gets messy with ice/rain but not warm at all. That Atlantic blocking just dominates for 10 days.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Euro a couple runs in a row trying to show a little enhancement in E MA tomorrow evening…maybe someone can crack 3” if that happened. Prob in the 128 belt to maybe 495..esp N of pike. Then there’s still the OES sig as the IVT rotates S and veers the winds back N for a time which puts the Cape into a decent spot.
  9. ORH_wxman
    There are still a significant number of ensemble members on both GEFS and EPS that hammer southern New England. Lot of spread. Honestly, anything is kind of gravy from that system as 2 days ago it looked like a rainstorm except way up in far NNE.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it doesn’t happen too often but this is admittedly a weird setup. We want to see ensembles tighten before really getting a good handle. The mean still has decent precip up into NNE so there’s a lot to spread.
  11. ORH_wxman
    It actually eroded the northern edge but the heavy stuff bumped a little north…which makes sense. It’s basically tightening the gradient. Prob a sharp cutoff in this system.
  12. ORH_wxman
    GFS continues to be mostly a whiff for 12/26-27 but it’s been creeping back north.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Yeah…high outlier comes back to earth. Still think 1-3” away from immediate shore is the good play.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Just when you think we're getting some model convergence, the 18z RGEM drops a turd on our head. Looks like those paltry NAM runs from earlier.
  15. ORH_wxman
    There's def an OES sig on the Cape for later on Christmas Eve. Euro has been showing it and 18z NAM has it too.
  16. ORH_wxman
    GFS is the higher end outlier....NAM is more like joining the rest of model consensus.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Def a better run than the last several paltry runs....it has been the low outlier, so good to see some convergence.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Well Euro was far less than GFS in central and western areas. It was only a little less in eastern areas this run. I hope the GFS is correct since it’s a widespread 3-5” deal but I’m still fairly skeptical. I think 1-3” would still be my forecast right now.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Euro looks like it juiced up a little for eastern areas tomorrow. It also tries to clip E MA coast with the IVT Christmas Eve.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Usually a good idea to toss outliers. GFS is just much juicier than most other guidance. If Euro juices up a decent amount then I'd probably be more intrigued.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Canadian is even more interesting
  22. ORH_wxman
    That's a big piled up train wreck in the Atlantic....that's what is causing all these systems to trend colder in the medium range.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Not buying GFS at all.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Euro isn't that far off from the NAM solutions either...Euro is slightly juicier but not by a lot. I'd still be going 1-3" for most of SNE. I'd need more proof this system has the juice before putting a 2" floor on the forecast.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Yeah and GFS has been pretty juicy as well.
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