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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Yeah the tick colder on 18z euro makes the difference between all guidance pretty small now save for the very paltry 3k NAM but hard to take that seriously yet. Maybe inside of 36h start giving it any weight at all.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I'd want to see more guidance spitting out 0.40-0.50" of snow QPF before going anything above 4". Maybe that happens at 00z, but it's entirely possible it's mainly a 0.2-0.35" type event on the snow front.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Not an appreciable difference in 18z GFS. PRetty consistent with other guidance for most of us. On the margins there might be changes. Maybe a touch weaker with the initial thump down in S CT if we're nitpicking, but still a pretty cold run with the sfc reflection tracking from near Delmarva to ACK.
  4. ORH_wxman
    I'd take the over on 1" and there's a chance it could be 4-5" if things break right...not a large quibble though. I think i'd go 2-4 and prob 3-5 if we can eliminate some of the weirdo solutions by 00z like the 3k NAM giving us 4 hours of SN- that amounts to 1-2"...or some of those zonked Euro solutions which give us 2-3" but dangerously close to giving us 1".
  5. ORH_wxman
    Just for moonshine....
  6. ORH_wxman
    At least for the pike region, the models are pretty consistent about advisory snows....including the Euro. Down in CT, it's basically every model except the Euro. edit: I'll note that the EPS mean for Hartford is around 3" though, so it's a bit more bullish than the OP run...most noticeable difference is down in S CT where the EPS mean is 2-3" vs C-1 for the OP run.
  7. ORH_wxman
    EPS is pretty bullish on this threat. Mean is around 6” for BOS. A little less but still 4-5” across much of CT.
  8. ORH_wxman
    You need to maintain that leading vort…if it attenuates too much you lose those dynamics…aka, no bent back ML warm front…instead it’s just kind of a weak general isentropic glide with no defined area of enhanced vertical motion. I think it will produce enough for solid advisory snows but not more than that.
  9. ORH_wxman
    I think most of SNE (and even up into CNE) will spike pretty decently. We have 925mb temps of like +4 or +5 and you mix that down with FROPA. I don’t think it really matters in terms of melting much snow since it’s dry by that point with lower dews and at night so no aid from sun. But it may briefly melt any glaze that happens from during the day. If we end up with a more suppressed solution though then maybe it never gets that warm.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Warmest temps will likely be overnight Thursday into predawn Friday with FROPA. Could spike brief 40F and then temps drop during Friday morning.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Euro was pretty decent this event. Solid front ender. Low end warning criteria for many in SNE.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Euro was def a tick colder than the 06z run.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Weathermodels kept saying it was out to 144 like 10 min ago but none of the maps loaded anything.
  14. ORH_wxman
    06z EPS actually had a lot of redevelopers which kind of surprised me considering the OP run was a bit uglier. Those would both enhance dynamics a bit and prolong the snow before a flip to IP/ZR.
  15. ORH_wxman
    If your goal is double digits in an event, probably mostly disappointment (maybe something bigger happens late month or March)…but it could easily be a lot of 3-6” type events with some 6-10” inchers mixed in ala 2007-08/2008-09.
  16. ORH_wxman
    GFS coming in pretty cold. Decent thump in CT. Looks like advisory snows for most of SNE.
  17. ORH_wxman
    That might be a bit too pessimistic for N CT in both events. Weekend deal also looks a touch colder than Thursday.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Not sure I agree with “low level cold air will not hold for too long” when you’re getting a sfc low tracking south of SNE and over the cape.
  19. ORH_wxman
    It’s pretty good for most of CT too that run. NAM is still mostly useless at this range though so as usual, we wait for the varsity models.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Yep and H7 (while a little less defined) was just inland from south coast during the thump. If the ML warm front is more diffuse and weak, we’re gonna get those ugly lighter rates. But if we can keep those features more defined, then it’s a nice 4-5 hour thump.
  21. ORH_wxman
    You want to be where the ML warm front is…just north of it. The triple point low rides pretty close to it so we’re gonna want it over the Cape/SE MA I think. This run showed a bit more defined bent-back ML warm front than previous runs so I think that’s why it was spitting out better rates. That little vort running out ahead of the main shortwave stayed a bit stronger too which helps with the midlevels.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Nice thumping band for pike on that run.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Forget that. Let’s go this
  24. ORH_wxman
    It does. But it’s not vastly different than Thursday. A little colder on guidance.
  25. ORH_wxman
    0% chance you lose your pack this month where you are.
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