ORH_wxman

It could definitely still trend back west on the next couple cycles, but the problem is the closer you get to the event, the less likely the models are to be wrong and the moves typically get smaller. So if we’re trying to bring it west 100-150 miles in the final 36-48 hours, that’s a tough lift. If we only need maybe half that distance, it’s more realistic.

12z is pretty much bad trends across the board so far. Icon got a smidge better but that is almost meaningless because it’s the icon and it also was so far east at 06z, it couldn’t get any worse.

It was one of the western outliers so I’m not too concerned it ticked east a little at 06z. It would be more concerning if it did it again at 12z.

If ICON and RGEM go east, then the trend is prob real. But yeah, not putting a ton of stock into a NAM run…but still, if there was going to be a hard trend west, you’d think the NAM would be all over it.

At least this pattern looks better and it’s colder. A little more wiggle room than that February look last winter. Doesn’t guarantee anything of course.

Looks like horse shit. Hopefully it’s just being the NAM and one of its random clown solutions. But it’s never been bullish about this threat.

We need to “buy” ourselves about 3-5 hours for that vort to curl in before getting shoved E. Like you said, that 06z gfs at 66 hours was trying but then it just doesn’t have the time to really go to town before getting crunched east. The way we buy ourselves a little time is to really sharpen the trough so that lead vort energy gets shoved north into S Canada or near N NY border at 60h instead of slicing across VT/central NY acting like a brick wall.

Let’s keep that vortmax more consolidated and get double digits. Why not.

I did that storm on WWBB. That was my first winter posting. I had lurked previously…even back to ne.weather in the 2000-01 season.

06z OP euro moved a decent amount. It has advisory snows into SE MA now. Just need one more solid tick and a chunk of eastern zones would get in on high end advisory or low end warning stuff.

Def shifting more toward Berkshires NW CT and S VT/Sw NH. As that trough sharpens, it will cause Saturday to go NW but it alsO brings Sunday west.

Euro Skynet ticked west a bit

Nice shift on GFS. Still want Euro to jump W again.

Tight gradient that run.

Oh yeah. I’m not saying we’re not due for some biggies. I’m just saying I still can’t believe we lived through that. I used to dream about what it would’ve been like to be alive during the 1955-1972 period. I never thought we could match or beat it in our lifetimes.

You and Brett lived through the best 18 year period of snow in southeast MA on record. ‘01-‘18 is the GOAT. As someone who deeply studied MA snow climatology growing up and even after my college years, it still boggles my mind. Spending most of it on the forums was a privilege.

Depends on QPF imho. If 18z euro solution happens, you’re getting 2-3” of paste. But if it’s just light crap that’s around 0.10” over 5-6 hours, then it’s slushy C-1” crap.

“You chose poorly”

I think its definitely low probability for warning snows even for eastern areas, but there's truth in that nobody really has a great feel for this system. I think even the most seasoned mets are looking at the trough position and know it's quite good....but the shortwave interference is mucking it up...however, it's not always fatal to a storm when you have shortwave interference....esp if other factors are good enough to overcome it like a massive ridge out west and/or very strong vort energy near base trough. So we're all kind of waiting to see if the negative variable can be overcome by the positive ones.

I want to see warning snowfall back to ORH on most model guidance before I think I'm getting even advisory here. This storm is ripe for a big trend NW through tomorrow and then a nice rug-pull after that.

I think interior N and W of 495 will be mostly snow as 925 temps never get warmer than about -2C....hard to rain like that if you have anything steady falling....if it's really light it could be white rain or even plain rain maybe. Mesos are significantly colder in the BL so those would be snow even close to BOS.

While it was a scraper, 18z euro actually moved a decent amount NW. But that’s partly because the 12z run was a completely clean whiff even on the Cape.

Blizzard24. Kevin was really good friends with him. I think they talked in the phone sometimes.

The January formula for having a chance to save this winter: 1. Don’t get skunked Sunday (at least give a chunk of the region a few inches…doesn’t need to be massive) 2. Grab a warning event out of the SWFE pattern late next week/weekend 3. Grab a major event out of the El Niño +PNA pattern between 1/26-1/30.

Let’s get the euro something better than a Cape scraper. At least get some advisory stuff to E MA coast and we’ll have something to work with at 3 days out.