ORH_wxman

Heavy snow here now. Even the street light up the hill 200 yards is getting pretty dim.

Excellent snow growth here now. Prob that initial fronto push.

Light snow has started in Holliston

If it was supposed to happen earlier and prevent accumulations, then it was wrong.

It’s a little sucker hole but gonna start soon in CEF

Nobody does

Looks like steady stuff just reaching DXR and far SW CT

With this pattern, it’s prob not far off from 50/50.

Hopefully you guys grab a couple down there. Maybe I can scrape a C-1”. Still not enthused but that was a decent jump by 18z euro.

Lol we’ve said this like half a dozen times since this morning and still falling for it.

Just as long as it’s not a larger partial phase you’d prob get a net gainer…but let’s keep that phasing idea off the table and get a true big dog. Still a long ways to go obviously on that threat.

18z euro looked a little thumpier down into CT this run…still not a big system but maybe advisory snows before a flip to IP/ZR and a quick dryslot. Keep an eye on that main vort…if that can trend just a shade east, prob would increase snowfall non-linearly.

Yeah this would obviously not be as extreme as that one…that was a much deeper phase. But same concept for sure. But given the southeast ridge, even a small partial phase too early could screw us. Hopefully the block does its job.

It’s basically a cutter but with CAD/redevelopment so we never warm sector.

You don’t want the PV partially phasing with the main shortwave until very late in the game. Those more amped runs are trying to rotate the PV or PV lobes just far enough west to do a little partial phase and send this thing up to BUF…and the colder/snowier solutions delay that process or just flat out keep it from occurring.

Most of the inflow is out of the south until late. You should still do well though…pretty big thump incoming for most Euro had south shore in one of the higher QPF zones.

The old ETA had some epic coups back in the day but it also had some horrific busts too. I remember the night before the Feb 2006 storm a random 06z ETA/NAM run was basically a complete whiff. It was like a 6 hour forecast too. I think it scraped us with 1-3” and maybe hit the Cape and far SE areas. It had a few other clown solutions that were just as bad along the way. But I think we forget them sometimes. The only modeling tool that I legit think was better back then for snowstorms was prob the SREFs.

Not sure the QPF is gonna be there unless we trend that vort back east just a bit. It’s like half an inch of QPF (or even less on some guidance). But if we trend the vort back east a bit more, then we end up with a larger/snowier thump. The orientation of the high and redeveloping low isn’t ideal for prolonged big icing. There will def be some ZR but then we dryslot pretty quickly.

Trends today have been kind of lame for Thursday. It’s a cold look (esp at sfc) but the vort wrapping up further west means we get this quick shot of WAA precip and dryslot. Hopefully we trend that back east just a touch. Next weekend is still all over the place.

Depends on ratios. They aren’t getting over an inch of QPF but someone could fluff bomb their way to a foot if they get 0.6”-ish and near 20 to 1. Im expecting only a little better than 10 to 1 in pike region…early on with the initial WAA burst we might get some decent snow growth but then I think it’s going to turn into baking powder. Maybe we go 12 to 1 average or so.

Then you have the Canadian which is almost too far south…still good hit though.

It starts as snow in the single digits N of the pike.

Very cold in low levels. That 900-925 layer is frigid at the beginning despite SE flow in that layer.

Looks like a lot of sleet after a few inches of snow and then a dryslot on GFS. Want that main vort a little further east or have a little more embedded in the flow to our south if we want a bit higher impact. Otherwise it’s kind of a quick shot of 0.50 QPF and done.

Your area might do a little sneaky catch up tomorrow during the morning and perhaps even into midday.