ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Light snow falling here. Kind of a short term bust on temps....most guidance had it into the mid 30s by now, but we're 29F.
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And then there's the RPM which rips the storm up through ginxy's BY and into E MA.
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Yeah there probably would be a lot of 6 and 7" amounts with a stripe of like 9-12 for whoever gets into the weenie front band (and it definitely looks like there would be one on that setup)
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SNE crushed.
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Dryslot's wife spiked his coffee this morning
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Little bit of phasing with northern stream at 33h right now...don't think they'll stay connected, but that helps pump heights up downstream.
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Yeah they are almost the inverse-NOGAPS rule from years ago....you'd look at the NOGAPS back then and if it was pretty far NW, you knew that was kind of a red flag.
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Looks to me like the 12z NAM is coming back north this run through 24 hours.
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Not really....'nor is the RPM at this time range.
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SREFs look like the RPM.
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06z euro looked about the same as 00z. Was hoping for another bump NW there but it is still getting 1-2” across a lot of SNE with more over far SE areas.
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06z GFS tickled NW. interesting set of trends in the last 12 hours. Some models going SE and others coming NW. Threat definitely still alive but need to narrow these goalposts.
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Yep. Slightly less amped through 54h.
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EPS a tick SE as well though there’s definitely still plenty of spread NW. We’re onto 00z.
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Could be convection too. Convection is at a minimum around 12z and closer to maximum (or a little below maximum) at 00z. But that doesn’t explain all of it either. Esp in winter when there is less of it overall.
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Yeah slight step back, still scraped the cape that run. OBviously need to reverse that trend at 00z. I actually thought really early on it looked better with the western trough axis a little west, but the southern vort ended up weaker and the northern stream pressed slightly more to offset that later on.
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Euro coming in less amped this run. 12z was a scraper, so this might whiff.
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GFS is gonna be west. Not like NAM but may hit SE areas pretty good this run.
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ICON coming in a bit more amped again, though maybe not quite to the level of 06z run.
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Moist Absolute Unstable Layer to be exact for the acronym letters.
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RGEM is still mostly a whiff....clips the Cape and south coast.
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Nice dryslot for eastern areas
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NAM did pretty darn well actually with this past system. It was a bit too cold right on the coast if we're talking details, but it was surprisingly good with the synoptics.
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The SGZ issuper deep on the soundings.
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It's more like over your fanny to ORH this run if we roughly pin it on top of the 600mb WF.
