Tblizz whining his way to 6-8”?
The thing to watch is to see if perhaps the shortwave doesn’t decay quite as quick as model guidance shows...and we end up with some huge bands getting into the southeast half of SNE like the NAM showed. I think the odds are definitely against that but it can’t be ruled out. There’s going to be some pretty potent bands that are tantalizingly close and it not impossible they inch a little further NW.
I haven’t really seen any notable trend on the HRRR other than the 09z run was really paltry, 10z came back to look kind of like most models and 11z didn’t move much from 10z though it looked a little better inland. I’ve been waiting to see if it makes a move....same with RAP. RAP looks a lot better than HRRR but haven’t seen it move much in the last few hours. One of them will be wrong.