ORH_wxman

The guidance is going to verify too warm if they have that mesolow poking northeast into CC bay like the rgem does. If it’s a little less defined like the NAM then it’s prob going to transition to 33F rain further inland and ORH elevations will be the main area in SNE. Below are the rgem and NAM...you can clearly see the rgem points more NE while the NAM is more ENE. Euro was more northeast too which would end up colder. RGEM/Euro look means take ‘em down at the sfc

Euro looked pretty thumpy late week. Hopefully we trend that a little more. Also a potential threat 2/22...EPS has that. Looked Miller B-ish

This could be pretty icy over the interior. Gotta watch for the mesolow too. Some guidance is trying to poke a mesolow up to the northeast. Not all guidance (NAM doesn’t really have it but rgem and to lesser extent euro)....but if we pop that mesolow up into CC bay and northeastward, then it’s goodnight for warming above freezing at the sfc at least to like 128 and maybe even a little closer to coast.

Yeah maybe as high as 0.4-0.5 if it’s efficient. But this isn’t a major ice storm as modeled right now. Moves too fast and not enough QPF. Could be a decent nuisance type ice situation though. Around 3/8th radial starts getting annoying with some power outages.

I saw a couple threats that run. They just went wide right and one kind of redeveloped overhead. It wasn’t a particularly torchy run.

If you have excellent insulation under your roof then you can definitely have gutters up there. Sounds like your house is well insulated if you rarely get any snow melt on the roof. But an old house like mine that we haven’t re-insulated yet, it would never survive a winter up north with gutters....those gutters would be trashed after a winter or two.

He thinks skepticism of warning ice amounts is the same thing as saying no ice will happen. It will be a typical ice event if it happens...prob like a tenth to quarter inch...nuisance. A small stripe may see something more significant. Hard to say where yet, but my best WAG would be south of Kevin.

Toss the sfc temps on these tracks over ACK

Very likely sleet makes it north of the pike. The question is how much snow happens before that. 18z NAM was actually a furnace...lot of cold rain down there with ZR in interior MA. Tossing it though unless euro agrees.

Selling big ice for that large an area. Prob a narrow band of decent ice and my guess would be closer to the south coast. A bunch of that is sleet in reality.

Agreed. There would def be a thin band of decent ZR, but based on 850 and 700 temps, hard to get that much ZR as far north as it shows. I’d bet on a lot of sleet instead. But we’re probably not at the final solution either.

It also depends on the max warm layer temp. You usually want at least 3-4C for the warm layer for ZR. But even if that happens and the cold layer is more than -6C and like 500m deep, then it will be pellets anyway.

The globals def aren’t feeling this one. The mesos are a little more interested. Guess we’ll just keep an eye on the radar.

Yeah just avoid the ugly cutter and you’ll keep the pristine look to the pack. Even an Ottawa cutter won’t wipe it out at this point, but nobody wants a 20 inch glacier either after 1-2” of rain and a refreeze. That’s some impressive icicle action there. I was up on the roof here yesterday (and likely going back out there today) getting rid of the ice dams. One thing I hate about living where I do...I’m in that climate belt where it’s marginal to have traditional gutters. A little bit colder/snowier and you ditch the traditional gutters...you are well into that territory. Further south and you usually don’t have to worry because stuff melts frequently enough...but here is that annoying zone where every few winters, it turns into this weeks-long battle.

Yeah he’s prob pelting that run...and this may not be done tickling E.

It is definitely a pretty big difference between BOS and ORH for this point in the season. There have been some big differences in the past though. I think 2000-2001 had 102.1” at ORH and 45.9” at BOS. 1986-1987 was a similar spread. 2012-2013 was something like 108.9” and 63.4”. I think 2002-2003 had a very big spread too...about 117” in ORH vs 71” in BOS. ORH has had two big storms this season where BOS was pretty skunked. The 12/5 event gave ORH 9.6” while BOS maybe had an inch or less. Then Of course the 2/1-2/2 firehose out of the east gave ORH 16.5” while BOS had a little over an inch. That makes up most of the difference right there in those two storms.

It actually thumps the pike region now before a flip to sleet.

Euro is going to be SE of 06z by a tick

As long as we avoid true cutters it’s good there. But even up there would kind of suck if we got a cutter or two ripping through Ottawa.

Def toss the clown map. Way too far south with the snow. But definitely a lot colder than the 00z run.

Ukie got way colder. That looks like there could be a decent amount of snow in SNE.

The PV did not end up in Dallas.

06z was even warmer. All these are probably going to cool as we get closer.

I feel like this is coming back SE now at 12z. ICON and RGEM are notable ticks back SE. Still a frozen/freezing mess for much of SNE but the sleet/snow line is a lot closer now. As i said to scott earlier this AM, that is a tight fit to rip that vortmax around the PV lobe. It’s decaying on approach because of that squeeze...Tip actually made a good post about it earlier.

NAM looks pretty good for SE zones. Even up to here is like 2-3”. Scooter might be in a good spot tonight with a little Ocean enhancement.