ORH_wxman

Yeah that was a pretty thumpy run on the front end.

Yeah that’s what it looks like. Midlevels are so torched that FROPA spikes you to near 40F and you get 50s in SE MA.

Take the watches/warnings down if the trend doesn’t stop at 00z. I’ve been pretty confident this would start going back SE at some point but that PV lobe is providing like zero resistance which is weird. You’d think at some point it would. I mean, as recently as 12z runs today, we saw a notable increase in the high presence up north...maybe something weird happened in the 18z runs that was kind of fake. If it’s real, we will see it again at 00z. Its also kind of amazing to remember that the GGEM utterly de-pantsed the GFS/Ukie/Euro all from about 4-4.5 days out. It was all alone for like 2 cycles on showing the partial phase.

You to dryslot has been a nightmare. Can’t catch a break there.

2008 broke Kevin a bit on icing events. I think he’d even admit it a little. That one stung...he was certain he’d get the big icing in that one and then when he was marginal ice and cold rain at 32.2F, he saw the ORH pics and died a little inside. Hes been trying to make up for it ever since, but you really can’t fully recover from that. It’s like missing out on free tickets to the Atlanta/Patriots SB as a Pats fan or game 7 2003 ALCS tickets as a Yankees fan because you had an in-laws dinner party to attend to and couldn’t get out of it. Sure, you try and make up for it later on but you truly just have to accept you whiffed a once in a generation type event.

I think even the interior would jump above freezing for brief time on the FROPA behind the system. But yeah, most of the precip damage occurs below freezing.

I’m tossing those types of runs until the evidence is very clear that’s what will happen. Seen this so many times where they try and track storms up Ginxy’s fanny only to see them go over the Cape or Islands once we’re almost on top of verification. Still gotta watch the mesolow potential too out ahead of it. Tomorrow’s junk could play a role.

18z NAM back to more of a furnace like the 06z run.

Yeah the hemispheric pattern is changing but it’s still pretty cold here through D10...we’ll see what happens beyond that but I wouldn’t be surprised if there are a couple legit threats in the Feb 22-26 time range.

Looks like less QPF than VDay 2007...that was a massive QPF bomb. I think I had like 8-9 inches of 6 or 7 to 1 snow/sleet combo. I also think midlevels are likely to be a little warmer so more ZR than that one. We’ll see though. Can’t rule out a late SE trend aloft.

Yes. I agree anecdotally with dendrite’s NAM rule...when it’s ripping in warm layers around 750mb, usually best to take it seriously. When it has the max warm layer much lower around 850, then we toss if other models are colder. And yes on the surface. Model guidance is overwhelmingly too aggressive in these situations in warming up the lowest levels. Maybe if a track from ginxy to Scooter actually verifies, then I might push the warmth further inland, but otherwise, bring ‘em down.

It actually has light crap off and on starting predawn tomorrow morning and then the steady stuff moves in early Tuesday predawn.

Euro is pretty cold too for 2/18. At the moment that one looks a bit similar to Tuesday except the PV which was originally supposed to settle in ahead of Tuesday, actually settles in after Tuesday and we have an arctic antecedent airmass which would be better for starting as snow.

Yeah it’s definitely been running colder aloft along with the Ukie. Suggests a lot of sleet N of pike...esp near MA/NH border. Prob starts as a burst of snow even. My gut tells me to go with the warmer models aloft though.

Secondary may tickle east on some of these runs like the RGEM. Not sure I’m totally buying a low over scooters head. Something like NAM makes more sense.

Yeah and that matches with my old radial anecdotes....I always noticed around a quarter inch radial is when you’d start seeing the scattered power outages and then at around 1/3 or 3/8ths is when it would start to seem to “ramp up”.

Yeah the new criteria using flat ice makes the warnings a lot easier to verify...and makes the warning a lot less menacing than it used to be. It’s still a pretty good icing event, but the old ice storm warning was like “whoa, this is pretty serious”.

Yeah, I was mentioning this earlier (I think yesterday) about the QPF aspect. I’d normally want to see at least 2” of qpf for major ice storm concerns unless it’s like 1.25-1.50 protracted out over like 36-48 hours from mostly light intensity stuff.

Yes the trend is def warmer in the midlevels.

Toss those sfc temps.

VDay 1962 was more impressive imho

Surface. It can torch aloft as long the flow is Southwest up there.

Pretty hard to warm the interior when it’s not mostly in-situ CAD. This is pretty classic pressure pattern to keep them well below freezing.

I think there’s multiple more chances in February. I mentioned earlier that 2/22 is starting to gain some traction. I agree with Scott that March looks warm and it makes sense but that could change too. Guidance has been pretty bad in the extended range. Lot of LR forecasters got humbled this year.

This isn’t a pure in-situ CAD event like we often see with a retreating high into Nova Scotia. It’s going to be really hard to dislodge cold in the interior. The only way will be if the primary trends west and stronger and you get a secondary trying track over like SE CT to RI to SE MA.