ORH_wxman

GFS is a sick solution for ORH. That is legit if it developed like that. Still not biting though...want to see more agreement from foreign guidance.

Yes...a little later capture on the low.

Yes a little further west would be better, but that is still a great spot on the east slopes. Problem is there isn't much of anything further west unless he bunks in Mitch's garage.

Looks like a great spot in an easterly flow event.

Agreed. They are in a great spot. They are a jackpot contender in this...pretty much anywhere from Kmart south to N Berkshires back northeast over the Monads and then up into W ME/Phin's area are all potential 20-burgers in this. You wouldn't forecast that much, but it is a legit threat in those locations. But their floor is probably solid warning criteria (like 8-10" minimum)

They get hit on pretty much every solution. They are as locked in as you can be...at least for an April 15-16th threat.

Need another 50 miles or so imho before it gets super interesting. Right now you’d prob forecast an inch or two of slop for anyone outside of N ORH county/Berks/SVT/S NH at elevation.

Euro looks pretty similar to 00z, maybe a hair colder...which was a little SE of 06z. So it ticked back SE some, but not a lot. That's pretty interesting for ORH county though...esp N ORH county into the S NH and S VT/Berks.

Euro looks like it's coming in a bit SE of 06z. We'll see what happens next couple frames.

That's my gut feeling too, but can't rule out that they are correct yet. A compromise probably isn't good enough for most of us either...except maybe ORH northward at elevation. Hubbdave's area.

Ukie actually looks a bit N of the 00z run...that would probably only get Monadnocks and S VT and maybe N berkshires into decent snow for anyone south of NNE.

I'll put a bit of salt on corn on the cob, but other than that, the only time I'll use it is when prepping/seasoning food before or during cooking.

Yeah it's going to slot quickly in CT except maybe Litchfield county unless we can tick this a little SE like the NAM. GFS would prob be good enough too, but it's a close call in his 'hood on the GFS with the slot...hits MA a lot harder. We're probably all going to be sobered up anyway in a little over an hour when the Euro comes in.

A little worse than 00z run...kind of weird because RGEM got a bit better.Usually they move in the same direction. It is still a a pretty snowy looking solution for N ORH county and Berkshires though.

Yeah I don't see why not. It's not like this is isothermal from 700mb downward. As long as you're getting decent omega in the SGZ, then it would snow down to the valley floor in the CCB. The key is getting the solutions with a good CCB over you (and much of the rest of SNE) to verify.

There would have to be a pretty big shift on model guidance for you to avoid getting at least a foot IMHO. There's a legit chance you get 2+ feet.

Yeah probably...but damn, some of those soundings are cold. Like 32F at the sfc and clearly like -2C or -3C not far off the deck. So high terrain would get obliterated that run. A lot of that would fall at 10 to 1 or greater. The shoulders would be more like 6 to 1 prob. That said, I doubt the GFS sokution actually evolves that way in reality.

Yeah it gets some decent snow in there, but you are a bit on the edge.

It has an omega crosshair sig over ORH county for like 9 hours....someone would get a foot-plus on that.

Wow, GFS def moved toward the NAM that run.

RGEM actually tickled a little SE. Pretty good look for ORH county on that run (along with the usual Monad/S VT/N Berks region)

Yeah the 850 low on the 3km is over like PVD now on the 12z run while at 06z it was over MVY.

NAM def did move a little bit...less stretched at H5 and a little NW. Another couple ticks like that and it will be in better agreement with the other guidance. Still destroys agood chunk of interior SNE verbatim, but there was a definite tick there.

NAM is definitely digging for oil on the upper low...it really stretches it SE and then slides it right under LI as it deepens whereas the other guidance is bringing it over CT or so...maybe the south coast. There has been a slight shift in the global guidance toward the NAM in the past 12 hours...we've seen the more elongated H5 look on those runs that the NAM first advertised. But that trend obviously has to continue to reach the grid-collapsing solution the NAM is spitting out for several cycles in a row. The other guidance is nibbling a bit rather than biting on the NAM solution. That "elongated" upper air look not only produces a colder profile, but it also prolongs the very heavy precip with that deep layer E flow and CCB....kind of a double whammy. If we lose that, then it's probably just a relatively forgettable system outside of the novelty of "last flakes of the season"....another 36 hours of spring misery in the vault that already holds hundreds in our lifetime. Exception would prob be the monadnocks into S VT and N Berkshires.

Yeah I think there's a great chance for most people to at least see flakes....the column gets pretty cold as the ULL meanders slowly east so at the very least, I think most will see some snow showers/flurries/pellets/graupel on Friday evening-night/early Saturday if they miss out on the heavy stuff Thursday night/Friday.