ORH_wxman

Yeah probably...but damn, some of those soundings are cold. Like 32F at the sfc and clearly like -2C or -3C not far off the deck. So high terrain would get obliterated that run. A lot of that would fall at 10 to 1 or greater. The shoulders would be more like 6 to 1 prob. That said, I doubt the GFS sokution actually evolves that way in reality.

Yeah it gets some decent snow in there, but you are a bit on the edge.

It has an omega crosshair sig over ORH county for like 9 hours....someone would get a foot-plus on that.

Wow, GFS def moved toward the NAM that run.

RGEM actually tickled a little SE. Pretty good look for ORH county on that run (along with the usual Monad/S VT/N Berks region)

Yeah the 850 low on the 3km is over like PVD now on the 12z run while at 06z it was over MVY.

NAM def did move a little bit...less stretched at H5 and a little NW. Another couple ticks like that and it will be in better agreement with the other guidance. Still destroys agood chunk of interior SNE verbatim, but there was a definite tick there.

NAM is definitely digging for oil on the upper low...it really stretches it SE and then slides it right under LI as it deepens whereas the other guidance is bringing it over CT or so...maybe the south coast. There has been a slight shift in the global guidance toward the NAM in the past 12 hours...we've seen the more elongated H5 look on those runs that the NAM first advertised. But that trend obviously has to continue to reach the grid-collapsing solution the NAM is spitting out for several cycles in a row. The other guidance is nibbling a bit rather than biting on the NAM solution. That "elongated" upper air look not only produces a colder profile, but it also prolongs the very heavy precip with that deep layer E flow and CCB....kind of a double whammy. If we lose that, then it's probably just a relatively forgettable system outside of the novelty of "last flakes of the season"....another 36 hours of spring misery in the vault that already holds hundreds in our lifetime. Exception would prob be the monadnocks into S VT and N Berkshires.

Yeah I think there's a great chance for most people to at least see flakes....the column gets pretty cold as the ULL meanders slowly east so at the very least, I think most will see some snow showers/flurries/pellets/graupel on Friday evening-night/early Saturday if they miss out on the heavy stuff Thursday night/Friday.

NAM is likely on crack....I'd prob lean C-3" over interior elevations with 6"+ confined to high spots of Berkshires/S VT and Monads. Then another max up in Phin's area to W ME.

Yeah we need another 50 miles or so on the Euro over the interior for anyone east of the Berkshires and Litchfield county for siggy snows...as is, prob some minor accums, but if we’re chasing a big one his late, then we need near-perfection (ala NAM)

00z 3k NAM was insane too. Too bad it doesn’t go out another 6-12 hours. It is completely destroying SNE at 60h. But as already mentioned, I’d want to see other guidance before really taking those types of solutions seriously.

NAM went nuts again. I’m skeptical but we’ll see if other guidance tries to come more SE with that evolution like the NAM is doing.

I give up all sweets for lent every year (and don’t cheat on sundays)...it’s really tough because I’m a sucker for ice cream and cookies, but I always lose 10-15 lbs like clockwork (and I’m not a stocky dude anyway for those who haven’t seen me). It definitely has me quite light on my feet by the end. It’s something I should probably do twice per year instead of once but we’ll see. Maybe as i move out of my 30s I’ll change it.

I think we had 34F in 2018 at Fenway iirc. I remember there being occasional light sleet pellets falling outside that day.

Yeah it tries to yank back the thermal boundary from the east and get a good CCB going over SNE rather than having it happen more over interior central New England and also later which is no good for snows outside of the highest terrain. It taps more moisture this way too coming out of the east with longer fetch and starting sooner.

That is only partway through the event. It’s still a NW CT jackpot that run but there’s a lot more snow that falls over E MA after that panel.

This is what the 18z NAM did.

Out of the 12z suite, NAM was further SE with the upper low....GFS is a little north and the Euro is west of the GFS. They aren't huge differences but they matter for exactly where the bigger snows might fall.

Agreed. This is close to popping something pretty significant for even lower areas, but it just can't quite get its act together this run. If that ULL stretches out a little further SE before pinwheeling back then I think you'd get a better thermal conveyor going....it obviously needs to be watched closely.

Most people have an absolutely terrible time calculating risk in identifiable quantities as it relates to their behavior. 1 in 1,000 roughly sounds the same to most people as 1 in 100,000 but they are vastly different in reality. People will slowly change their behavior back to normal as more people are vaxxed and deaths keep ticking down. I agree there isn't going to be this mass media campaign to get back to normal like there was for mitigating behaviors. It will happen more organically. This thread is mostly useless bickering about how people perceive risk and then inevitably some politics gets injected. There's no reason to continue those back and forth squabbles. We tried allowing people to post about vaccine availability in here but it has just devolved.

And buried bodies.

There's definitely been a subtle shift back south on the 12z guidance....minus the Ukie which just jumped solidly north. Though the ukie was the southenr outlier on the 00z runs. Now it's prob farthest north. We'll see what the Euro does....it's been steadily crawling north every run since about 06z yesterday.

GFS is a monadnock to berkshires obliterator. Prob gets a good chunk of W CT too.

It would probably be a historic storm if everything was south/southeast about 100 miles.