ORH_wxman

Time to fire up this thread before the 00z suite as we’re now close enough that it’s going to happen for at least part of this forum. Mitch in S VT as well as central greens over the monadnocks and at least northern Berkshires are locked in for significant snow. Also western Maine over to white mountains are looking very good for significant snows. Furthern north could get in on it too depending on trends and interior SNE from ORH to N CT elevations need to watch closely as well. This storm bombs out quickly to our southeast. You can see the deep layer easterly flow that will accompany this system:

Definitely can’t count them out. I’m a little more worried about slotting issues above 800mb down in CT outside of Litchfield county but even that said, they could still pick up a few inches. If we keep this just a tick SE then it’s game-on for bigger amounts there.

Yeah they are locked in. The biggest question mark in SNE right now is near ORH up to near hubbdave. Very high stakes there in that zone. I could honestly see that swath getting double digits or a sloppy inch. Both are totally plausible. I’m leaning more toward the lower end at the moment but it won’t take much to change that. I’d prob feel pretty good N or NW of FIT in Ashburnham or Winchendon/Gardner. Even hubbdave a little further south I’d be starting to feel more confident in at least advisory snow if not warning.

Yes it can...but I don't think I'd trade that much latitude for it. If it was much further west like in litchfield county then yeah. Hopefully this ticks one more bump SE though and it's a widespread hit for the interior. My gut says no, but we'll see.

18z Euro is getting a little more interesting

Only on the clown maps...I don't think I'd rather be there than ORH given the midlevel look.

I use it very little...like a small amount on a burger. The exception is when I make a sweet pulled pork, adding ketchup is part of the mix.

A couple of burly men in wife beaters drinking PBR by your firepit while it's ripping S+ on your cam.

Yeah this might be winter hill time. Paid off on 12/5 when I bolted too. I'm still a little skeptical though....like I'm still thinking maybe this is a couple inches of slop on winter hill...maybe a 6-burger at WaWa and then you have to go up to the buried bodies and Monadnock to find 12"+. But we'll see. There's been a subtle tickle toward the more interesting solutions today....we just need the foreigns to fully bite. They've nibbled a little with the RGEM being the most interested out of the foreign models. Ukie and Euro are pretty meh....Euro slightly better looking than the Ukie which was a furnace.

GFS is a sick solution for ORH. That is legit if it developed like that. Still not biting though...want to see more agreement from foreign guidance.

Yes...a little later capture on the low.

Yes a little further west would be better, but that is still a great spot on the east slopes. Problem is there isn't much of anything further west unless he bunks in Mitch's garage.

Looks like a great spot in an easterly flow event.

Agreed. They are in a great spot. They are a jackpot contender in this...pretty much anywhere from Kmart south to N Berkshires back northeast over the Monads and then up into W ME/Phin's area are all potential 20-burgers in this. You wouldn't forecast that much, but it is a legit threat in those locations. But their floor is probably solid warning criteria (like 8-10" minimum)

They get hit on pretty much every solution. They are as locked in as you can be...at least for an April 15-16th threat.

Need another 50 miles or so imho before it gets super interesting. Right now you’d prob forecast an inch or two of slop for anyone outside of N ORH county/Berks/SVT/S NH at elevation.

Euro looks pretty similar to 00z, maybe a hair colder...which was a little SE of 06z. So it ticked back SE some, but not a lot. That's pretty interesting for ORH county though...esp N ORH county into the S NH and S VT/Berks.

Euro looks like it's coming in a bit SE of 06z. We'll see what happens next couple frames.

That's my gut feeling too, but can't rule out that they are correct yet. A compromise probably isn't good enough for most of us either...except maybe ORH northward at elevation. Hubbdave's area.

Ukie actually looks a bit N of the 00z run...that would probably only get Monadnocks and S VT and maybe N berkshires into decent snow for anyone south of NNE.

I'll put a bit of salt on corn on the cob, but other than that, the only time I'll use it is when prepping/seasoning food before or during cooking.

Yeah it's going to slot quickly in CT except maybe Litchfield county unless we can tick this a little SE like the NAM. GFS would prob be good enough too, but it's a close call in his 'hood on the GFS with the slot...hits MA a lot harder. We're probably all going to be sobered up anyway in a little over an hour when the Euro comes in.

A little worse than 00z run...kind of weird because RGEM got a bit better.Usually they move in the same direction. It is still a a pretty snowy looking solution for N ORH county and Berkshires though.

Yeah I don't see why not. It's not like this is isothermal from 700mb downward. As long as you're getting decent omega in the SGZ, then it would snow down to the valley floor in the CCB. The key is getting the solutions with a good CCB over you (and much of the rest of SNE) to verify.

There would have to be a pretty big shift on model guidance for you to avoid getting at least a foot IMHO. There's a legit chance you get 2+ feet.