ORH_wxman

Looks like it’s better…now ORH/BDL OTOH….

Someone with an NWS tech background posted in here before and said if the ASOS thermometers are within 2F of calibration, it “passes”. I remember being astounded that it wasn’t an order of magnitude less than that.

The “ineedsnow” intensity correction formula for falling snow is to just move the decimal one place to the right on reported visibility (or implied visibility from reported snow intensity).

Solid 1-2F of separation. That’s so bad. The reason the graph is such a tell is that if differences in departures were due to random variance in weather conditions, you’d expect different stations to be warmer/colder outliers each time. But this is a consistent pattern which tells us the instrumentation is not correct.

That's the really hard part...you need to keep the trends going and not have it revert back even partially.

GFS prob gets a C-1" deal into a chunk of CT.

Not very interesting up here....it might suck the CT crew back into the 1/6-7 threat though.

That was the final big storm threat of the season near the equinox....I remember it well. ORH only needed like 3-4 inches to break their all time March monthly snowfall record and they couldn't even do it. It's amazing how much snow we got that month despite two large busts (at least in the interior)....the other one was the Mar 2nd storm which was supposed to be a rain to heavy wet snow scenario over interior. Didn't flip until way too late.

Graph of monthly departures since January 2021 for the 4 major first order BOX climo sites Legend: Blue = BOS Orange = ORH Purple = BDL Yellow = PVD Frankly, the last 2-3 years has been particularly embarrassing....absolute clown show from ORH and BDL slipped off the reservation too. PVD (we noted this a while ago too) started going cold as well in the other direction. You can see they fixed BOS sometime in late 2021...we had known they were too warm prior to that. All of these are going into the official database too to produce more normals once we get to 2030. @dendrite@CoastalWx

Almost looks like a neutral or even slightly negative PNA pattern developing beyond 1/15 to go with the -NAO.

Ptype issues.

Sygyzy storm…that was one of the few great ones in the 1980s. Jan 9187 was actually an epic month at ORH. Almost 50” of snow that month. That decade did have some good November and spring storms as well (April ‘82, 3/29/84, 4/28/87).

18z euro was a headfake. Glad I didn’t stay up and wait for 00z runs. Hopefully the stuff beyond 1/7 trends better in the coming days.

Feb 2013 had an Iceland block/ridge too. Just give us that one. Not asking too much.

The NAO configuration I like a lot more on that too. We talk about about different types of -NAOs but the version that backs up from Scandinavia through Iceland and Greenland tend to be extremely productive for us when we have western ridging. They don’t suffocate us as much.

Not biting yet despite the large move on 18z euro. Need to see a definitive move on 00z from most guidance. If we see that, then it gets interesting…esp south of pike.

We do get scraped by a 959mb low on 1/15. These runs aren’t afraid to put out absolute bombs. Just need to phase one properly for us.

ORH is still running too high anyways. Been that way since 2020. Crazy that it’s almost 5 years worth of data now. I meant to put together a spreadsheet but haven’t done it yet…but now that we have all the months through the end of 2024, I may line up all the monthly anomalies for first order SNE sites and then graph them. That would be the ultimate tell.

Yeah the 1/10 look has subtly improved today despite not getting an OP run tempest. Still could easily miss of course. Ensembles showed a bit more separation of the main shortwave and ambient lower heights near us and to our northeast. So hopefully we’re able to space something.

When the PV gets trapped in your back yard, EPO becomes less of a worry. Honestly looked like the ridge was rebuilding in the Bering near end of EPS anyway.

Yes but you have been ultra negative on many threats that crushed you in the past. That’s how someone becomes not credible. Saying the same thing regardless of outcome.

Only way for SNE to see decent snow from the 1/6-7 threat is for a partial phase with TPV. If we can phase one of the spokes of energy then maybe it had a shot but we haven’t really seen those solutions…a couple runs have come close but nothing that leaves you waiting on the edge of your seat for next model run.

Yeah credibility matters when you are talking about public discourse.

No reason to look at guidance for a day 10 threat at 7am.

How fast did Cleveland superbomb in 1978 deepen? I know it got down to about 955mb in Ohio