ORH_wxman

The light inversion def might be a problem to the NW of the track getting some better winds. NAM actually probably has the best winds starting in the MVY area and then slowly working NW (while also weakening) through SE MA and adjacent RI because the inversion mixes out there.

Looks like the center might just barely go east of BID. It’s gonna be close

I think EWB over to UUU and maybe Kingston RI need to watch for a period of big winds....that’s likely the prime spot with landfall looking likely in RI somewhere.

I might get some decent winds here. We’re kind of exposed to south winds on this hill and the track up through RI and then NE CT could put the best stretch of winds up through Narragansett bay and into interior E MA.

They still have some decent spread which shows the uncertainty even at 24-36h.

Yeah the eastward shift is definitely real from yesterday. It’s not a huge shift but it probably makes a landfall in RI more likely than SW CT/W LI. SE CT has always been in a pretty prime spot for landfall odds and I don’t think that has changed much. It’s extremely hard to actually know how a hurricane is going to behave on the scale a few 10s of miles...I’ve found that going by experience can be more useful than trying to dissect whether a piece of NWP guidance with its 8 trillion equations is going to be correct. In past experience, it’s very very common to see eastward leaks on guidance for New England TCs in the final 36 hours, which is why I was leery of the westward trends continuing a few runs ago. That doesn’t mean it will keep happening from here on out but hedging slightly east is not a bad way to go.

Yeah there was like a 1-2 hour period that it ripped pretty good down there. The sun actually came out for a time which probably helped destabilize the low levels a bit and then shortly after that we got some pretty big gusts. Usually it’s hard to get much better than 40-50 knots at ground level in my own experience (which admittedly doesn’t include a “real” tropical hurricane)

There will be a risk...good low level shear. But with the wind field kind of meh, it is probably mostly like weak EF0 spin-ups. We don’t have like 100-120 knots just off the deck to tap into like we might in a stronger system. Still gotta watch though. Even weak ones will be damaging...esp with recent rains.

Irene’s strongest winds might have been down on the cape. I had my highest personal measured there with the handheld. I think Phil and I got 63 knots at West Dennis beach.

Gem was basically the same as 00z. Maybe just a hair east. BID/WST/GON zone is where I’m zoning in in LF. If I was making a 2 sigma confidence interval though I’d prob go HVN/BDR to like Buzzards bay.

This is true. Our grid sucks where I am currently.....but CT seems on another scale up though. We saw the massive contrast in both Irene and the Oct 2011 storms too...like towns right next to each other on the border...the MA side would only have scattered outages and the CT side would be like 90-100% out.

Yeah I’m leaning BID right now into WST or GON.

NHC will have to shift track east I think unless we see a big shift back on the 12z run.

You can see the 925 windfield tries to expand at He last second while its weakening.

Looks like the 06z euro tickled a little east. It’s actually pretty similar position as 00z at 12z Sunday morning just off the south fork of LI but the 06z run brings it more due north into ginxy’s hood rather than sharply NW into northwestern CT by 18z Sunday like the 00z run did.

Landfall as a weak cat 1 might be a tall task. Strong cat 1 by the time it comes ashore seems very unlikely. We’d prob need very rapid intensification today up to like cat 2 if we wanted to entertain a landfall as a high end cat 1. The storm is going to weaken between peak intensity and landfall.

Yeah the wind threat is decreasing on this unless it really gets going fast.

The model spread seems like it has increased overnight. Definitely an east trend but you still have guidance over central/western LI but now instead of BID being near the eastern envelope, some other eastward guidance is near UUU.

Yeah they have viewers in E CT and RI....even if SE MA is unlikely to get hit hard, those other areas definitely could. Can't really rule our areas near EWB getting it good yet either....if this tickles east then they are back in the game.

It's like a really weak version of Carol.

It's weird to see such a uniform wind pattern like that for a New England TC....so used to seeing the expanding windfield and the best winds well east of the center.

slowing to crawl near BID.

Yeah this will def be east of 12z...won't come back enough to match the earlier run. Prob like RI landfall this run....

18z NAM looks east so far through 36....it's also a bit slower too, so it might try and slingshot back west late.

Ginxy's fence ripped apart by flying dog logs?