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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    I will say that the EPS continues to get snowier and snowier in the LR. They never got too bullish about the 1/15-1/20 period but they been really liking the period after that. So for us masochists who like tracking these things, that would be your beacon of hope.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Yeah we’re in bad shape for areas that can’t make it up with a couple of decent warning events. The funny part is the pattern still looks totally serviceable with plenty of cold around and nearby in S Canada but if we’re not getting any of these shortwaves to play ball, it’s all meaningless. Can’t buy an event to actually verify.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Maybe we can grab a below zero low or two with bare ground with the post MLK pattern.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Well you got your wish with the troll thread. Congrats.
  5. ORH_wxman
    all joking aside, that’s a problem with these more recent runs starting with the 18z Euro. The H5 trough isn’t deepening as further south as earlier runs.
  6. ORH_wxman
    She gone…maybe.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Clown range NAM doesn’t look bad.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Not the exact same setup but seeing some of these paltry depictions despite a deep closed ULL to our south reminds me a bit of the model fumbling prior to 2/15/15. The 18z euro is not included in that because that was so much further north than any other recent runs.
  9. ORH_wxman
    With this storm, if you don’t like a model solution, just wait 6 hours.
  10. ORH_wxman
    We’ll see what the EPS looks like this run. There was a ton of spread on the 12z eps so this type of solution is within the envelope.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Actually brings a pseudo-CCB into Maine that run. That’s how far north it was.
  12. ORH_wxman
    GEFS is able to swing that shortwave negative to our south which is what really helps juice that QPF up….prob a lot of members with a full blown CCB into eastern SNE …and not just swing negative, but allow it to gain some latitude while it does
  13. ORH_wxman
    Prob a warning event for SE areas that run. Not totally surprising as the 12z GEFS were kind of bullish.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Shit or get off the pot time though for having a AN snow season for anyone who averages over about 45”. If we can score even a couple 4-8” type events, that would go a long way to keeping us in the game. EPS is showing PNA trying to spoke again late month so maybe another window for a coastal there. GEFS more lukewarm on that but it does have a pretty cold look with slight SE ridging.
  15. ORH_wxman
    That was the snowiest EPS run for New England in a while. Definitely some chances throughout those two weeks.
  16. ORH_wxman
    EPS has a decent number of members that are warning snow for a chunk of SNE. Lot of spread of course.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Yep. You get a prolonged overrunning and then you take advantage of a bit of conveyor that gets going as the low goes south of us.
  18. ORH_wxman
    That was a pretty nice euro run. Lot of chances.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Just keep deepening it and good things happen.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Man, this is something that is usually eye-opening.
  21. ORH_wxman
    It was a pretty huge hit over interior New England.
  22. ORH_wxman
    GEFS looks pretty threatening for SE areas and cape.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Yeah NH is basically just Canada and CT is fake NYC.
  24. ORH_wxman
    One good thing is that i do like how potent the energy is. Guidance will often dampen/weaken it too quickly. Hopefully a similar scenario here.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Ensembles have an interesting western ridge spike near the end of their run around 1/25. A few of the OP runs have been showing a bigger system around then too. I’d also still keep an eye on potential SWFE type system around 1/18-19
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