ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Yeah I wouldn’t even care about the dryslot on that if we actually got the front end. Reminds me of the Mar ‘17 front ender. I think I had 15” in about 8 hours on that.
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Nah that one tracked due north over eastern MA even just west of BOS.
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No Dec ‘92…that storm was stalled for like 30+ hours, lol.
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Go back a few frames. It gets pretty tucked under LI.
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The entire forum should be. Slightly less leery down in SW CT but the majority of us always hold our breath on them. But beggars can’t be choosers at this point. We’ll take any plowable snowstorm right now.
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That’s tucked but thankfully that block up north helps keep those 925s solid. Still tough for immediate coast at the height of it but just inland would slay.
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Much rather have those two models showing garbage than the GFS/Euro showing that. We’ll see if we get some more agreement at 00z.
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EPS ensembles. Still some work to do but a big improvement.
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I’ll only post that if the 1/10-1/15 period fails.
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Yeah I was mentioning the other day that this type of NAO is usually more favorable for our region. It still allows room to pin low heights in the 50/50 region but it’s not so overwhelming that it suppresses everything. That type of NAO is also less likely to link up with a SE ridge too because it’s coming from the wrong direction for that.
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Should provide a lot of chances going into the second half of January if that verifies. Ridge will be offshore so there’s going to be more cutter risk, however, the NAO will help with that and there’s a lot of cold available. Prob some SWFEs in that look too.
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Splitting the difference would prob be good. Euro doesn’t go nuclear until Maine on the OP run. GFS maxes out down near NYC.
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Still dragging its heels a bit but a lot better than previous runs
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Problem was we had no phasing with southern stream. Even partial ejection and phasing would’ve produced something but we always kept everything too sheared.
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I didn’t expect euro to play ball with southern steam. That’s a nice surprise.
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I think the 1/14-1/20 period will likely have a couple chances too. You’re relaxing the block a bit but it’s still there.
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I agree that I think it’s somewhat likely a larger storm occurs if you eject and phase that southern stream considering how meridional the northern steam is. Almost every single solution that phases it has been pretty huge going back a week when it was out at D14-15.
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Lack of cross-guidance support makes the 1/11 threat pretty low probability at the moment. GFS is the one model that wants to not bury so much energy southwest. Ukie and Canadian weren’t too far off. I fully expect the euro to bury this to Cabo because it loves doing that.
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In all honesty, move the whining to the other thread. Catching up this morning was utterly unreadable.
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Anytime you see BN temps in NYC/NJ and AN in NNE in January, that is not a rain threat here.
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Yeah it was a little delayed…more like 1/13 on the euro but that looked interesting with the ejecting energy from SW. Ended up being a DC/PHL system this run but wouldn’t take much to make it interesting here. Funny how the euro is burying the energy far more than other guidance….I don’t know the stats these days on it but I wonder if it continues to carry the longtime bias of burying energy in the southwest.
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It’s been toying with the idea of something larger for a few runs now. I’d want to see some cross-guidance appeal before taking it more seriously.
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Yeah I wouldn’t bitch at all if we got a 55” winter. Excessively going below climo becomes grating after just a couple seasons. We’ve all endured horrific seasons on here in the past. 2015-16, 2011-12 and 2006-07 (for a lot of SNE. Interior did make a decent comeback)….and for those of us who go back far enough, 2001-02….but we always rebounded with a good winter quickly if not the very next year.
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Well the very next year we crushed it with a ridiculous NAO block in late December 2010 and first half of January 2011. Granted, we spent most of that time with a -PNA (but not the flavor where we have a perpetual trough down into Baja Ca…more traditional -PNA instead).
