ORH_wxman

Yeah I'm thinking Logan airport gets in the 60-65 range....but maybe they can crack 70. It's a good storm motion for them and the inversion does weaken some as it moves west....esp on the coast.

12z Euro has 83 knots at 925mb over his fanny tonight....LOL

ORH will be a good gauge....they are further east and exposed on NE winds, so they are going to be on the higher end of anything in the interior.

Unless you have an accurate anemometer, we'll never know....if trees fall over when you get 35mph gusts, then that means they fall over from sub-wind advisory criteria.

Too far west there.

NAM even has BOS at 60 knots at 1000 feet tonight....that is insane. It's more like 70 knots on the south shore, lol.

Holy crap....12z NAM, lol. Scooter better board up the windows and bring everyone to the basement.

12z RAP is pretty insane for SE MA. Like 50 knots sustained at about 200 feet above the sfc....and 75 knots at 925.

“So who are you? You said you're headed back to New England and can help me?” ”Sure, I’m the 3 time world champion accordion player and I can give you a lift.”

He’s from Florida...maybe he’s pulling a DIT where if he can’t get snow, nobody can, lol.

Lol, 80-85 knots at 925 on the south shore.

November starts seasonably cool, but then perhaps a moderating period before another cold pattern sets in? Weeklies/ensembles show this pretty good today. You can see the cold delivery in the first week of the month but then it moderates into a milder pattern by late in the ensemble run: It's out in clown range, but hope the end of the weeklies are correct for late Nov/early Dec....that pattern would likely produce a lot of cold and snow threats.

If you had data for 2007-2008 there is a good chance that would be snowier than the other ones. That was a monster winter.

In the mod/stronger cases, it's usually hard to get a +PNA in a La Nina. We actually managed it for the first 2 months of last winter despite Nina being moderate....but then again, those SSTAs in the N PAC looked more like an El Nino. But even popping a +PNA for like 1 month during a La Nina can be pretty helpful....Jan 2011 and Jan 2009 are both +PNA months within a sea of otherwise -PNA pattern and they really gave the eastern US a sustained wintry period. Jan 2011's +PNA was well-timed too as it really popped big once the 1/12/11 storm reversed the big NAO block....so instead of a relaxation that comes with the NAO going more neutral/positive, we stayed cold and snowy with the +PNA ridge out west.

Yeah, I mean, if you have a -3 SD block in the Davis Strait, then that will definitely overwhelm typical Nina SE ridge climo for sure.

At least this year actually looks like a La Nina over the Pacific rather than just a thin strip of below normal SSTAs in the ENSO region....look at the difference between last year and this year I posted further above. Huge difference despite the La Nina actually being a little weaker this year....but in practice, it will probably act stronger and more typical than last year's did. That would be my guess anyway based off the look. That still doesn't tell us whether we'll get a lot of snow of course....you can have classic La Nina look still produce a total blowtorch ala 1999-2000 or 2011-2012 if a vortex sets up over AK/Bering Strait, but the other features will still be present like -PNA and SE ridge, etc, etc.

Once you are west of Winni into the monads, it might as well be the fooking Allagash. Same thing once you are north of Berlin. There isn't much between Ossipee and Dover/Rochester NH either, though it's not as bad as those western areas of the state.

Yeah the closest thing to a ski village there in NH is probably North Conway at the base of Cranmore. Lincoln at the base of Loon can maybe be included too....but they aren't quite up to the levels of VT ski villages.

Yep there's a bunch of places you can move up there where it's a total wasteland for amenities. Most VT ski towns are pretty well supplied with them though whether it's Kmart, Stowe, or even Ludlow. NH can be a bit more sparse even near the ski resorts, but the White Mts aren't bad near Phin because of proximity to Berlin and Conway.

Berlin is actually sneaky big for a town up there....I'd bet most don't know that it's twice the size of Bridgton, ME over the border to the east. Even Lancaster isn't that much smaller than Bridgton.

Nah, by like the 2nd week of November, I'm done with the warmth because you can start getting more legit snow events. Plus, I'm a skier too and I like seeing NNE get off to an early start with both snow making and natural snow. Once my final yard cleanup is done around Veteran's Day, I'm all-in. I'm still realistic though....I won't throw a tantrum if we don't get a snow event in November....they don't happen every year down here. Up there they pretty much happen every year. Esp 2nd half of November.

'08-09 was a weak La Nina (2nd year Nina)....it's actually not a bad analog for this season's background state. It's looking better and better too because of the PDO taking a nose-dive this summer and into autumn. You can also see the cool SST anomalies now extending from the ENSO regions to the west coast....that is something we have not seen since 2012 which had it lingering from the remnants of the 2010-2011, 2011-2012 Ninas. The 2016-2018 two year Nina didn't have it and neither did last year's Nina. This is a return to a more classic Nina SSTA pattern. Look at the difference between last year's Nina and this year's in the North Pacific from the west coast into the Gulf of Alaska. This is much more reminiscent of the Ninas from 2007-2008, 2008-2009 and the 2010-2012 episode.

Don't worry, I'll be gung-ho cheerleading for snow when the time comes, but I just have no use for shitty cold weather in October. Even 10 years ago I really didn't, though I used to root a little harder for the rare October snow event. That said, if I was up there, I'd probably root for it more since it's easier to snow in October up there than here.

Yeah bring it on after Veterans Day. Usually when I do my final yard cleanup. Once that is done I want the snow in here...but we have such a lagged climo in New England. Its amazing comparing to the some of intermountain west (esp further south like NV/UT/AZ) where November is colder than February in many spots.

I mean, all of our frigid autumns in the 1980s and early 1990s were the highlights of the cold season....winter would turn to shit just in time...lol. 2000 was a good one though. Lasted right into winter.