ORH_wxman

Probably a question of semantics....if we have a similar autumn, to say, 1971....but we end up like 0.3F warmer or something....I would classify it as correct to say "we've had autumns like this before".....if the record is smashed by like 2 degrees, then that would be a more dubious statement. FWIW, only BOS out of the first-order stations in SNE is currently having their warmest autumn on record...and their temps are running a bit "questionable".

Yeah the shortwave gets pinched off from the northern stream which allows the cold to moderate faster. But this is still 7 days out. I recall models doing something similar with 11/15/18 too in the medium range.

It’s a little warm but close enough to keep an eye on

You got the years correct but that is 4 seasons in a row. ORH has never previously even done 3 in a row and of course as I become a young snow weenie, that’s what I get greeted with.

You are thinking of 11/19/86 I think. But there were events on both 11/11/86 and 11/11-12/87...butt he fast moving nature of the storm with intense rates pre-dawn matches the 11/19/86 storm. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1986/us1119.php#picture

Yeah but that is an El Niño pacific there which makes me skeptical. There’s a huge Aleutian low where normally in La Niña we see a high/ridge there. The key in La Niña is to get the ridge poleward so it’s shooting up into AK/Bering Strait.

The temps will be plenty good for snow making for at least 5-7 days early November. But it does look like it gets pretty mild for a time mid-month. But at least for the ski areas, man made snow will be pretty durable as long as no torching 55-60F cutters come along with that mid-month pattern.

Yeah there's been a dearth of good snow events historically in the first week of November here. We've had more impressive stuff in late October. We did have a pretty good one though in 2012...Nov 6-7, 2012.

Yeah when I saw that trough orientation and the shortwave digging around the base of it, I was thinking "It would have been nice to see another couple 12 hour panels just for kicks" But while that exact solution is unlikely, you can see how the blockiness back in central Canada is going to aid in getting some exotic-looking evolutionns. When you have such an extreme meridional flow like that, you can have shortwave round that corner with superb efficiency. It doesn't take much room to get it to pop a big one. Typically, we'd grumble the ridge/trough axis are too far east, but not in that case.

It's a pretty deep trough with some blocking upstream in Canada which will help shortwaves rotating around it dig. Definitely something we need to keep an eye on. Regardless, the first week of November looks solidly below normal. Then it looks like a bit of a torchy pattern mid-month and then we'll see if that late-month snap back to colder materializes.

Depends what you are talking about....any flakes at all? That's probably got a half-decent chance. Something like advisory snows or better? That's not very likely for the non-mountain areas being 7 days out....but it's worth keeping an eye on because of the ensembles support for something.

Both EPS and GEFS have something to keep an eye on for 11/4-11/5.

Pretty cool inversion this morning. Up on the hill here no frost...just dew and about 36-37...got to the bottom and everything was frosted. Heavy frost down there.

That’s like the weenies in the mid-Atlantic getting storms on 12/5 between 2002-2007 so if you were super young growing up during that period you thought it should always snow in early December there. I think 4 of those years had at least advisory snows? (2002, 2003, 2005, 2007...the latter two being weak events that didn’t produce much up here in New England)

I actually went up to Killington the day after that storm and route 2 was totally pasted with snow from Leominster on westward. Down in ORH we had a few hours of sleet in the middle of that storm which kept the snow from staying pasted to all the branches. But once I got north of about Sterling it changed.

We had an exceptionally good run of Decembers in the 2000s....been a little bleaker since then, though the last two years have featured pretty big storms in December. They just got ruined by Grinch storms, lol.

Yeah and this could change a lot still....the models almost certainly haven't figured out the orientation of the large ULL and embedded shortwaves yet...so even the first one could end up colder too (or warmer). But I do think there is likely to be a legit winter threat out of that whole trough/ULL somewhere on this forum between 11/3 and 11/7. Then it looks like we moderate for a while mid-month (which has been showing up on ensembles for a while now)....and then perhaps go colder again late month if the weeklies are correct....both the CFS and the Euro weeklies show a N PAC change by late month which produces much colder pattern.

I'm more interested in the system behind it...11/6ish. The 11/4 system is prob not going to be cold enough outside the higher elevations of NNE.

Euro ensembles show the possibility of the 11/5-6 system. It won't really matter though until we're another 3+ days closer.

Nice Scooter....that's some man damage there.

This map is crazy. You can see where the winds mixed down. It hasn’t been bad over the interior...though around here we’ve been gusting pretty good since around 3am.

Is MQE not reporting? I see no obs there.

21z rap has like 70 knots at 950mb (not 925mb) on the south shore. Some areas there are gonna get absolutely smoked. Basically 1000 feet off the deck. Pine hills right on the shore there in PYM are prob ground zero. But some of the exposed spots up toward BOS (like Braintree/Weymouth/Marshfield axis) could get hit very hard as well.

I haven't read super recent literature on this, but a decade-plus ago it was undersampling of shortwave energy and underestimating latent heat release in the warm sector which provides a feedback to amplifying the trough. I suspect the data sampling issues aren't as bad as they used to be, but the latent heat problems would still persist to an extent given how most of our guidance obeys hydrostatic balance.

Old EE rule in effect....take 'em up on the coast.