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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Still not liking the EPS in the 11-15....need a little more ridge amplification in the PAC to press that cold down. It's not far away from being good...central and western Canada are frigid....this isn't like a 2011 or 2015 furnace across the entire continent where the source is gone and on the other side of the pole...it's lurking, but we don't want to get stuck on the wrong side of the gradient.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Another chance D10....pretty active pattern.
  3. ORH_wxman
    You'll want that high to hang on a little longer than shown....which it might. Way too far out for details. The thing could be hundreds of miles different by next week. But verbatim, that high sliding east starts to turn the BL into a problem inside 128/I-95.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Pretty classic SWFE on Euro. High end advisory to low end warning for much of MA and into NH/VT and S ME...N CT may be ok too on that run.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I'm hoping we see a trend more toward the -EPO look that the MJO composite phase 7 maps have as we move closer. It was especially strong on Ray's Nina composite. If that does happen, then we really just have to deal with the turd pattern for a week or less.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Oh nice...mine wasn't Nina-specific, but yeah, its the same idea. That's a very storng signal N of AK which would be good for us. That would shove the gradient south some compared to current guidance. If we can shove that gradient south about 1-2 degrees of latitude from current guidance, then we'd prob be in decent shape. The GEFS haven't been as bad in the LR as the EPS and the OP GFS. Feels like the OP GFS has been consistently ugly out in D11-15....but the GEFS are not.
  7. ORH_wxman
    You can prob fold up the tent in NYC for a while....unless something lucky happens. It's going to be a gradient pattern....further north the better. Even SNE may struggle in this, but we'll see as we get closer to mid-month.
  8. ORH_wxman
    MJO phase 6-7 for December is usually a decent look and it usually supports ridging in AK and not troughing. We'll see if that ridging trying to show up near EPO region mid-month becomes stronger as we get closer. Forecasts are for us to go from phase 6 to phase 7. Maybe scooter has some thoughts on the convection, but the two baseline December maps aren't bad....phase 7 does support some SE ridging but it's kind of weak.
  9. ORH_wxman
    The weird part is as Scott said...it wasn't a warm November there. I assume BDR is the closest site to him and they were actually a -1.7 departure for the month. But being close to the shore definitely makes for a much longer growing season.
  10. ORH_wxman
    His climate seems like Florida. He can run a fruit orchard in the winter.
  11. ORH_wxman
    https://en-gb.topographic-map.com/ Just type any location in the search bar and then you can zoom in or out. I accidentally had the bar at the top set to (English - UK)....just change it to US and it will appear in feet and not meters. edit: here is the US link https://en-us.topographic-map.com/
  12. ORH_wxman
    Yeah his area is W facing...but not all of the NE CT hills are....up in Union and over toward Woodstock, they are more favorable on easterly flow.
  13. ORH_wxman
    I would say you are definitely more west-facing than anything....maybe WNW.
  14. ORH_wxman
    It's the terrain influence....west slopes will do better on those setups with the winds turning W behind the front.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Kevin will be back on the badnwagon by Friday 12z at the latest. One of these next few cycles will start honing in on a threat. He will flip from dustings to 6-10" just like he flipped from "no snow through Xmas" to 4-8" for November 29th last week.
  16. ORH_wxman
    18z NAM trying to make the clipper on Saturday more interesting. A lot of the SREFs did the same this run....still not much, but if that trend is real, then it wouldn't take much more to drop a couple of inches.
  17. ORH_wxman
    VR better not f*ck Wildcat up....that's one of the few "pure skier's mountains" left in New England with that type of vertical.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Screaming winds
  19. ORH_wxman
    Your mixing up 2017-2018 and 2018-2019....1/4/18 was the huge storm. In 2019, our one big one was 3/4/19 (esp for SE areas). We had several moderate events though in Jan/Feb that year but they favored more interior than where you are.
  20. ORH_wxman
    No shortage of SWFE opportunities next week on the Euro. They might not work out but the chances are there. Beats something like the first 10-12 days of Dec 2018 IMHO....when we were sitting there in a cold pattern waiting for a single storm and watched central Virginia get 18" of snow and then the pattern flipped and we ran the table the rest of the month with nada.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Hopefully we have a few more Quebec highs than that season. That is what really separated that year from something snowier like 2007-2008.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Lot of western troughing though so that would make cutters a high risk...which this run has a lot of. On the flip side, there's some pretty good antecedent airmasses so there's some front enders and any of them could trend a lot colder...esp at the sfc. I think it could be pretty good for NNE....not sure on SNE though.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Lol....dryslot took the bait
  24. ORH_wxman
    Except in January when we needed more gradient.....lol
  25. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it was really the 12/19 storm...you could count the ice storm on 12/11-12/12 if you wanted to but it only affected part of the interior and it torched a couple days later for a couple days. 2008 is actually an example of a marginal pattern with a ton of cold in Canada that ended up producing despite not a lot of cold down in New England in the means. We were like +2 that month IIRC. But it was very active and with cold lurking around we got 2 or 3 systems timed correctly.
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