ORH_wxman

Yep. That block is going to provide some resistance. Ptype issues are plausible but likely the tail leftward distribution on this.

18z GFS was run on Ray’s computer

Northern stream looking healthier on ICON....not gonna produce this run, but very close. I wonder if this is one of those very few razor's edge solutions where we get light snow from it. I think if the ICON goes one more nudge at 00z like we saw this run, it would prob go nuts. This threat is ugly to follow because it's not one where the low is going to slowly move from Bermuda to ACK each run....it's going to jump when you get a good phase. On other threats, you're trying to get slightly stronger energy boosting the downstream ridge, or a better PNA ridge helping to dig it further....on this one, we're talking a full phase.

Northern stream is def a bit better on EPS but when it's not enough to produce the big dog, you are still going to get overwhelming majority of members out to sea....this is what I'm talking about with the non-linear response. It's not going to just slowly come NW by 25-50 miles each run....you'll likely see a whole bunch of members go nuclear if we start seeing the Euro suit phasing the streams better. Much like we're seeing on the GFS suite. 12z suite overall today was definitely a step forward, but we need another one at 00z. I think that's the 30 seconds cliff's notes version.

Improved but not enough.....gonna whiff this run.

Yes for the most part....I wouldn't call it literally all or nothing, but there's a very strong non-linear response to the features here. If you get the phase, it's probably going to be big, if it misses, there's a decent chance at a total whiff. There's probably a few "knife's edge" partial phase scenarios where we get a moderate event out of it.

They prob want ti tucked near the south fork of LI over towards just south of BID.

Ukie had a vastly improved northern stream this run....southern stream still dragging which is why it can't produce the bomb. There's a non-linear response to these features.

Ukie looking a lot better through 84h....won't be like the GFS because the southern stream is dragging a bit, but the northern stream looks much better. Hopefully a good sign for Euro later.

Jan 2011 also curled up into the gulf of Maine....this one kind of slides due east after reaching a certain latitude. Looks more like 1/27/11 by the time it gets up here...maybe a bit more robust and a little north of that one...but same type of sliding east.

That will keep the dryslot well south if it happened like that. It's a good evolution for higher end totals since you stay right in the heart of all the inflow and CCB.

Canadian is trying....a bit better than 00z.

Weird how ugly the OP runs are but the ensembles are def still trying. Can’t have any regression at 12z though.

Human nature. The regional battles pre-subforums were epic. I remember when Ekster trolled Nikolai(a poster from Mid-Atlantic back then if you don’t go back that far) one time when we all shared model threads. When a GFS run showed a huge mid-Atlantic jackpot 5 days out, he casually said something like “That’s in a great spot at 120 hours if you’re in Boston.” And all hell broke loose, lol. So many random squabbles like that.

Lol the E MA vs CT crowd is def the largest active squabble in the subforum. It’s a friendly squabble for the most part but it took me a few years to realize how much PTSD the west of river crowd has from 2015. Ray is really only more recently experiencing PTSD in the last 6-7 years. Scooter is now in active meltdown watch over the last two winters.

If we can at least keep this close by then that is workable at D6. We’ve reeled in so many biggies over the years when they were scrapers or very close misses at D6. Harder when they are just completely gone. What we don’t want is regression at 00z.

144. We’ll see the storm at the end of the run.

Yeah….The two streams cooperating is really all we want to see at this range. We can worry about LBSW later on. I think ideally we’ll want to see some late northern stream insert (no shortage of little vorts up there) to crank it for New England.

Yeah icon would prob be decent if it went out further. Much better northern stream look. Don’t really care what icon shows though…but that’s the N stream look you want on the varsity models.

Agreed. Though any other guidance showing it does help confidence. But my view is either this is going to come back quickly or it’s gone. I’d expect to see clear improvements by 12z tomorrow if a decent hit is going to happen.

Yeah I’m actually not quite as discouraged as I normally would be due to the northern stream being the biggest culprit here. We might be screwed anyway, but I don’t think it’s the southern stream trending slower. It actually ejected slightly quicker than the 00z run but the northern stream isn’t digging much at all this run. That is the culprit. If that trend continues then we’re def screwed but since it’s the very fast northern stream with that shortwave still almost on the other side of the pacific, I have some hope that it comes back a bit stronger.

Yeah the southern stream is actually ejecting decently this run but that northern shortwave never really digs until much later which is bad. We still almost get an event regardless but we need that northern shortwave to come in a bit deeper.

Yeah it’s very hard to get rain in this. Esp over the interior. The biggest threat is a missed phase and wide right and that is probably the most likely solution right now. Could still be light snows from the northern stream but it wouldn’t be a major event.

It’s happened many times in the past but we’ve also had plenty of storms that just disappeared for good in the D5-6 range and never came back. If we got all garbage solutions at 12z it’s definitely concerning.

Yeah me too. It might not be a HECS/MECS but the longwave positions are pretty favorable to try and get something going. If it ends up more northern stream, it might take until we get closer to see some response at the sfc. But we’ll see. Been burned so many times the last couple years. At least we have a block to our northeast so it’s not completely threading the needle for the interior folks…I know it’s not a ton of consolidation for your area which might need a bit more precise track.