ORH_wxman
-
Posts
90,892 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by ORH_wxman
-
Some of these runs are becoming more northern-stream dominant as the southern stuff gets sheared while the N stream simultaneously is trying to improve and dig more. So we’re getting some middle solutions. Perhaps it morphs into something like that….but if we can speed back up that southern stream a bit, then some nukes might start showing up again too.
-
Yeah the end result was slightly better than 06z for south shore and SE MA. Not a huge difference but there’s a path for warning snowfall if you give it just a little more phasing.
-
Southern energy really tries to catch up at last second. N stream digs down and it’s close. Frustrating to track this event on guidance because visually I can keep seeing how damned close it is to a much bigger deal.
-
Yeah not gonna happen this run. Clock is ticking faster and faster on this threat.
-
Southern stream is dragging a bit though on GFS this run. That’s becoming an issue on multiple models.
-
Energy in Canada looks a bit better on 12z GFS through 39 hours. Hopefully this starts coming back a bit.
-
They were on suicide watch up north in 2015-16. But yeah once you get back to something resembling normal climo, they will always clean up and make up lost ground….2018-19 was another monster winter up in NNE while it was kind of meh down here.
-
We’ll be moving onto the ARW runs in another couple days….powderfreak in 2015 drinking straight out of the bottle posting random ARW runs that deformed BTV instead of BOS. We almost lost him that winter.
-
RGEM actually is trying more than I thought once you get to 84h. Still wouldn’t be a big solution but might be one of those knife’s edge advisory type snowfalls if we could see a few more panels.
-
Icon took a step back at 12z. RGEM looks better. Neither is going to produce much for us verbatim in those solutions
-
100 mi SE of BM is mostly a fish storm. Maybe the cape and E coastline gets some if the precip shield isn’t too compact…but a somewhat compact precip shield is a risk in this one.
-
Yeah the 06z OP and EPS both improved decently. We need another one at 12z though.
-
Gonna need a good 12z bump today or it’s prob curtains.
-
Globals not loving the storm so far at 00z. Euro has been the eastern model so it would be nice if we saw a more phased solution later. Euro coming west would keep us in the game at least.
-
Yeah Icon was not quite the full phase so we got a rare scraper solution. That was super close to something way bigger though.
-
Reggie still needs work. Icon might do it this run.
-
Oh yeah…I’d prob trade a certain percentage of snowfall in exchange for huge winds during the storm. Not sure how much. I might take a 30% haircut if I could get me some true blizzard conditions.
-
I can change how I feel based on the data. I’m not tossing this storm out the window. Just was hoping for some stronger support by now but we still have time and the trends were positive today.
-
Trends are good right now which is very important in this time range. So I agree there. I’m still nervous about this fully phasing, but if we can see another cross-guidance improvement at 00z, I’ll become a lot more bullish.
-
It’s still pretty far SE in the mean. But at least we’ve added some big hits that weren’t really there at 12z.
-
The general trend today has been toward the GFS but the Euro trending so slowly has me spooked. It historically handles complex phasing much better than the GFS does. I think you have to hedge toward a miss right now….but it’s a very low confidence forecast.
-
The northern stream was a touch better, but the end result was almost a wash because the southern stream dragged slightly compared to 12z. But I do like seeing the northern stream slowly improve.
-
Yeah Westborough was just about ground zero on that run. But being on the coast of Maine will def give better wind.
-
Euro ain’t gonna bite. Northern stream just doesn’t want to phase in.
