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ORH_wxman

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    It’s gotten very good in these bands to your west. Stacking quick.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Growth has increased remarkably over the last 30 min.
  3. ORH_wxman
    More bands forming over interior
  4. ORH_wxman
    Growth a little better in that band down here
  5. ORH_wxman
  6. ORH_wxman
    Some good bands getting going over interior
  7. ORH_wxman
    Sneaky decent winter so far on the Cape.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Snow growth is still pretty crappy here but it’s like that 1/2 mile fog stuff. It’s dense but piling up. Some darker bands trying to get going…when we’ve occasionally had a little pulse of those, we’ve gotten better growth
  9. ORH_wxman
    SE MA is cleaning up right now
  10. ORH_wxman
    Snow growth def isn’t that good yet. It’s snowing easily moderate and sticking but it’s more like something slightly better than baking powder. But the best progs on soundings were more like 8pm through midnight or so over eastern areas. That’s when the lift got deeper into DGZ, so hopefully we start seeing that.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Between now and about 1am is poundtown for eastern areas. Might get some good high ratio fluff after that but the real meat is the next 6-7 hours.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Impressive bands starting to develop
  13. ORH_wxman
    WCB stuff currently south of LI was never gonna hit us anyway with any real force unless maybe clipping the cape. It’s all about the stuff to the west of that blossoming.
  14. ORH_wxman
    That’s good stuff too. Not super heavy but prob a much colder BL near the coast by that point with steep lapse rates and decent snow growth with lots of salt nuclei on those IVT lower level lift setups. Kind of thing where you can weasel another 1-2” out of 0.07 QPF or something.
  15. ORH_wxman
    You’ll need ratios to get that much.
  16. ORH_wxman
    AIs are liking the overrunning system while OPs suppressing it. Let’s see how consistent AI is in the coming few days vs the OPs. Wonder if we see another bias-correction win for the AIs….I had mentioned just a couple posts up how you often see those types of systems come north. I wonder if the AI models already know that from past data and are correcting for it. It will be interesting to track either way.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Don’t think the rates are there for a lot of warning amounts. But there will def be some good snow growth I think got a few hours this evening.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Always watch massive gulf-infused overrunning setups. They love to come north. So seeing them down south right now at this juncture isn’t the worst thing. There’s clearly a lot of spread anyway…EPS has QPF well into New England on these 24h panels.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Fwiw, I think it’s good to talk about it a lot because the more we all recognize and point out where the AIs were successful, then we can start to pick up patterns….maybe they are good in some types of setups and crappier in others relative to the OP guidance.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Yes but we just don’t use it in the shorter term since we have great short term models. If we can rely on AI as a solid tool for medium range, then that has a lot of value.
  21. ORH_wxman
    It’s gonna look mostly like crap for a while if guidance is correct. It will start to look better to our south and southwest around mid afternoon….youll see precip start to blossom and expand over NJ and south of LI.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Not very good in short term. It def kicked the operational’s butts though in that D3-5 period.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I think you guys will stack decently between 00z and 06z. Prob will be slow going until then. That’s true for most of us actually. Central’ and western CT folks a little earlier on the meat of the stuff.
  24. ORH_wxman
    This is what I was talking about earlier on a lot of these runs this evening. That heavier stuff is slamming the DGZ pretty hard…this is the latest hrrr but NAM has been showing it pretty consistently for several hours….so there could be some pretty efficient QPF to accumulation ratios if that pans out (and as a rule, you can lower that DGZ a little for us in SNE since we tend to have a lot of salt nuclei in the clouds here versus much of the country further away from the ocean)
  25. ORH_wxman
    14z run def looks healthier. Hopefully it’s catching a real trend.
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