ORH_wxman

I think ORH is in as good as a position as anywhere for a great band or two. I’d expect something like 15-25” for a forecast there. 1-2 feet at minimum and you could make a case for Ray’s 18-30”. Being on the east side of the spine there will be an advantage in this storm. It sort of “protects” them a bit more from the dry air intrsution that could try and sneak down the CT valley if you get a situation like Jan 2015 where the real meat of the CCB is a bit east.

Seems to be recovering by 48 to basically same position.

GFS looks a little SE of 06z through 30, but it’s kind of on the Noise level.

2.3” of snow. This is crazy dense stuff. It looks like we got way more than that. Prob like 5 to 1 ratios in this. This might look a little like 2015 if we get 20”+ on Monday.

I was noticing that just a few min ago looking at soundings. Deep DGZ on just about all guidance. Interior death band could produce some ratios. Won’t be Dec 2020 style but even in storms like Feb 2013, there were at least decent ratios despite the wind. Closer to the coast it’s probably just just too windy.

I think this would have to trend a couple ticks east to be more like Jan 2022…it’s always possible but it seems unlikely this close in given the way all the guidance looks.

Yeah can’t rule out some 30-burgers. Someone gets stuck under a death band will likely see it.

The way I know this is a good one is waking up and reviewing all the guidance and saying “I think 15” is the floor here”

2” of exceptionally dense snow.

Yeah I remember thinking we were too far west to get the jackpot but then it made it all the way out to ORH

This is like very thick April sheet drizzle except it’s all garbage flakes. It’s producing a very very dense layer of paste on everything. Temp 31F

I had already done a pass on the driveway after the first burst that left a little over an inch but I doubt I’ll bother with this current crud unless we redevelop some more and grab a couple inches. I think if it stays below that, we’ll melt it on the pavement tomorrow.

Back to all snow here. Crappy flakes though. Almost like it’s low level. But not more pinging or drops.

Yeah there's multiple ways to do it, but the most likely is just getting stuck under some bands. It will help if we can advect a MAUL aloft like Tip and I were discussing earlier....as H5 deepens more and more rapidly, that will help. We want it to be deepening very rapidly as it passes just SE of LI and then south of the islands. The other way is if you can get a bit of a stall....even for 4-6 hours as it gets totally stacked. That seems to be happening a bit to our SW making coastal NJ the beneficiary, but these things can change a bit...it's been slowly migrating northeast.

Yeah but when it's email exchanges, it's probably just 3 or 4 emails. Or in Tip's case, he might have finished one.

A little under 2" on the OP run...you're gonna get a HECS there. The only question is how far NW do the HECS numbers get....do they get back to central MA/E CT like 2015 did? Or do the HECS totals stay closer to shore like 2022.

If we don't get a regression on the 00z runs, then I think it's all systems go for most of SNE....it's hard to go low on snow when you have that deep layer easterly inflow aloft of that magnitude. The only thing you rrally worry about at that point is dryslotting but we're not dryslotting with a ULL drilling for oil near ACK.

Getting pretty consistent across guidance with that closed off H5 nuke to the south…the only question left is exactly how close it tracks

Huge aggies mixed in with these heavier bands.

Kitchen sink here now. Mangled flakes, pellets and some ZR thrown in.

Could be a top 5er on the Cape when you include the wind potential too. If they get 18”+ with hurricane force wind gusts…not too many can match that. Jan ‘05 of course…Feb 1952…Jan 2015…then maybe Feb ‘87. Not sure ‘87 and ‘15 had the winds quite as strong but the snow was epic and it’s not like it was a gentle breeze either.

Getting a few pellets now.

We still haven’t had any mixing here. But snow growth is mostly awful. Very dense pasty snow. Good refresher at least.

Yep, Reggie is a pretty pedestrian low end warning event for most...except the Cape and maybe south shore.

Light snow here...been cruddy growth since that 1 hour burst moved through. But no pellets yet. They seem to have trouble getting north of MA/RI border.