Jump to content

ORH_wxman

Moderator Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    91,411

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Really solid event for the Cape. Especially this early in the season. Not bad to pull borderline warning criteria on Dec 14th.
  2. ORH_wxman
    He def knows his stuff. I learned much from him my freshman year at Cornell (he was a senior there in the met department when I was a freshman)
  3. ORH_wxman
    It would have to be a quick clipper/redeveloper type of coastal. Not some classic Miller A or even a deeper miller B that blows up off Carolinas. Overwhelmingly the types of threats we get on a look like that would be overrunning/SWFE types.
  4. ORH_wxman
    I think its not a great chance, but it's definitely not zero....we have about a 2-3 day window in there from 12/23-12/25 to grab something. I think the cold is there during that stretch, but the question is can we get a nice system to run into the cold. PRob a SWFE or overrunning since you don't get many coastals with a ridge over the center of the country. But this is not a hopeless look by any stretch in New England...
  5. ORH_wxman
    Really no chances until maybe 12/23. Gotta hope we get a shortwave to run into the confluence which seems to be pretty stout on the ensembles…so there’s a good chance we’re at least seasonably cold during that period if not colder. But the question is whether we can get a system to fly around that ridge in the center of the country in time.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Man, mid cape is getting hammered And outer cape too
  7. ORH_wxman
    I think that’s a pretty good bet there now. At the very minimum, it’s hard to see anything less than 2” falling there and these later model runs are definitely giving a lot more upside if things break right.
  8. ORH_wxman
    18z gfs ticking NW too
  9. ORH_wxman
    Congrats on warning snows for SE MA on 18z NAM.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Lock it in.
  11. ORH_wxman
    NAM has some really good snow growth on the south coast predawn and early morning tomorrow. So if they can get into some decent rates, they could fluff their way to low end warning.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Looks like ICON and Reggie nudged a little north too.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Yeah the NAM popped a bit late but really looked good down there.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Slowing it down is prob actually good because it gives it time to buckle a bit…we don’t want it blowing up completely after our longitude. If it can be allowed to buckle a bit and blow up further west, then the warning-level goods could scrape the south coast and Cape
  15. ORH_wxman
    Hrrr really hammers the Cape and maybe parts of adjacent SE MA with legit fronto banding.
  16. ORH_wxman
    When you loop the ensembles, the ridge axis never makes it here. That could be ripe for a good overrunning or SWFE
  17. ORH_wxman
    Surprised to see the good trends overnight after the early flaccidness of the 00z runs. I think some of these runs are extremely close to giving the south coast a borderline warning event. Hopefully we can grab a couple inches up to BOS-ORH…still a bit skeptical for the pike region but it’s plausible at least now.
  18. ORH_wxman
    No help on trends from RGEM or ICON. We’re prob toast up here for anything more than C-1”. South coast to Cape still has a chance at something more interesting.
  19. ORH_wxman
    17 years ago today…hard to believe. Almost all of this fell at about 31F
  20. ORH_wxman
    NAM looks like it regressed slightly from 18z. It’s definitely been fairly consistently paltry.
  21. ORH_wxman
    GEFS continuing the semi-interesting look going into Xmas Eve/Xmas. It’s obviously not your ideal coastal storm pattern but we’ve seen some interesting winter wx systems on looks like the below…overrunning snow/SWFE/potential ice…something to watch…you get a ripple or vort energy being shot across the center of the CONUS and it runs into that brick wall north of New England
  22. ORH_wxman
    18z euro brought the lighter QPF a bit north but trimmed back slightly south coast and Cape. Mostly just noise though.
  23. ORH_wxman
    We’ll need slight nudges north almost every cycle from here on out to get solid advisory amounts more than 25 miles north of the south coast. Your area might not need quite as many nudges.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Rgem looked a little skimpier but pretty close to 12z. Icon came north like the NAM did so that was the two most suppressed models at 12z coming north and the juiciest one slightly nudging S (or at least less QPF)…so there is some model convergence going on.
  25. ORH_wxman
    South coast is really close to a big hit there. The system as a whole was more organized.
×
×
  • Create New...