ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Kind of surprising considering how warm it looked the last two days. Still not totally buying it, but this is clearly a very volatile look. I don’t trust anything out in LR right now given the weird exotic blocking we’ve been seeing showing from time to time.
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Still no power. Almost 24 hours.
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White Christmas Miracle? December 23-24th
ORH_wxman replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
We take OP GFS -
Fighting SE ridge but the big NAO and WPO blocking is an encouraging sign. If we have that heading toward New Years, I’d feel decent.
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I think model data assimilation and initialization is still going to be a big limiting factor. So I’m not expecting anything crazy awesome in the next few years until that part of modeling is improved.
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EPS is def at odds with OP run around 12/28.
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The trend has definitely been warmer post-Xmas. I’d be surprised if we did anything wintry on 12/26….even 12/28 is looking tough. The one plus about today’s Euro run (out to 204 so far) is that it’s starting to go nuclear with both the Atlantic blocking and WPO blocking…so that wound set the stage for a pretty good look as we get closer to New Years. We’ll see how it looks as it keeps coming out.
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This will be a constant theme I think….
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It’s not a very exciting system so yeah, you can wait a day or two to really say anything about it. The only novelty about the system is it will give a white Xmas to those who can grab a couple inches. There’s a low probability maybe it morphs into an advisory event if we shove it south a little more and it can grab a little more inflow.
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Eh I mean they are subtle differences but it might mean a lot in sensible wx outcome. I’d say the overall trend on that system has been better than 2 days ago….hopefully we push it just enough south to make it better. I could make a decent argument for either direction right now…on one hand, you have the sfc ridge still cresting over Maine at 12z on Tuesday which would argue the Euro is being way too quick to shove the sfc front northeast…OTOH, it’s not exactly a blocked flow there, so maybe it’s right.
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Euro still not getting that sfc front staying south. Quick 1-2” shot on 12/23 and ending as mix/drizzle.
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Yeah anything over a couple inches will last through Xmas morning. Xmas eve isn’t that warm. Maybe mid 30s and low dews with a solstice sun angle. But a coating to an inch would be in trouble.
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The AI models basically have taken the place of the old extended GFS runs from a decade or two ago (and even a little further back when it was the MRF)….whenever you needed to see some good solutions, you’d just loop the extended GFS and watch all the cold and snow show up.
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Yeah and it has juicier amounts too. Like 3-4” across the pike region. Ukie tries to keep the sfc front south which is what we’d want.
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24th might stay pretty cold as northerly floW drills down behind low. Bigger question is how warm Cmas gets. Might be 38-40 or it could be like 44-48
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12/26 is looking warmer and warmer the last 2-3 cycles too which kind of sucks. Except Euro Skynet which is frigid.
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To be fair, you try to do that too with NNE fairly often. If we can trend the 23rd just a little more south/colder like skynet, then it would be pretty nice for most folks and probably slightly juicier amounts.
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Crazy how much colder AI GfS is at 12z than the OP.
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CT does fine too except maybe south coast has some issues.
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Ggem Is a really nice shot of snow for interior. Prob 2-3”. SE areas are prob cooked after an initial burst perhaps. Hard to keep it frozen on S winds.
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Twitter is pretty useless for weather. I was thinking about posting on there this winter but not sure I’m going to. Lots of hype. You’ll get that anywhere on social media but it’s especially pervasive where people scroll quickly and you want clicks.
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12/23 might be tough in SE areas. Southerly or southwesterly flow in the low levels is never good there. The key though will be how cold we start. Could start off cold enough that it doesn’t matter as much.
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The magic dewpoint number is really in the high 30s. Beyond a wetbulb of about 37-38F, the pack melting really takes off. That’s why sometimes you can get a 34F rainstorm on a decent pack and basically see almost no melting. But do it at 40F and it’s a different ballgame. The ice crystal structure changes faster.
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AI models are colder beyond Xmas too. Hopefully they have a good idea.
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Xmas 2020 was pretty epic. We lost power Xmas morning.
