ORH_wxman

Both 18z NAMs held fairely steady though the 3k reduced the wildness in Essex county and maybe got a touch jucier in metrowest/central MA. But the same idea...still the best shot at warning is North shore.

Forecast 0-6” and you’ll be covered for that event. I’d hedge on the lower side for now though. Looks moisture-starved.

Very similar to what I posted above about gem and GFS failing but the euro succeeds in getting it up here. It’s a classic -PNA/-NAO split flow look. They can work awesome for us at times.

It’s weird how euro has been ignoring the north shore jackpot…inclined to toss it

OP euro is pretty cold. Snow for almost all of SNE but it’s basically just a WAA band and not very much QPF. Best QPF is actually NNE on euro. Maybe 1-2 SNE and 2-4 NNE. Paltry system.

Both GFS and GEM try and rain here for that one…though there is sleet/ice on the front end. Skynet models have been consistently colder on that threat.

Yeah and they might even need a warning in Essex county. I think they’ll prob go advisory for eastern half of SNE in their afternoon update. Seems like there is enough confidence in widespread 2-4/3-5 over ORH, Middlesex, Bristol, Norfolk, PYM counties….and prob all of RI. Eastern CT a little trickier. Windham and New London counties prob decent chance of advisory…even back to Tolland county…but guidance a little more variable in CT compared to RI/E MA. There’s a chance someone down near south coast around GON to Old Lyme could get a big surprise too. That’s been showing up as a secondary or tertiary maximum zone outside of North Shore.

Kind of a split flow look out west late next week and weekend with low heights over NE and SE Canada…. Both OP GEM and OP GFS don’t quite succeed but you can see the potential

12z herpes looks like GFS…maybe not quite as wild but same idea

That’s prob a lot of low end warning snow on GFS for eastern half of SNE. Don’t think I’d go quite that bullish but there will def be spots that see low end warning imho.

3k NAM gives BVY and Manchester-by-the-sea like 12-15”.

Yeah there’s general lift with the height falls and LL convergence does migrate across the region but where it slows down or temporarily stalls is where the jackpot will be. But I think almost everyone gets 1-2” minimum.

06z euro starting to line up with a lot of other guidance…that’s pretty widespread advisory stuff for eastern half of into CNE

The soundings are quite unstable in the lower to midlevels. If you can localize a little extra lift in that type of sounding, then you can get some surprises that happen quickly.

I think someone will have a nice surprise. Don’t know exactly where but I wouldn’t be shocked to see a lucky area get solid warning criteria.

If he gets 3-4” and ORH, me and Scooter get 1-2”, best event of the season.

They won’t radiate Saturday night with strong CAA but Sunday night they might. Winds take a while to subside and there could be some cloud cover trying to move in so we may not see a lot of radiators going wild during this cold shot, but the best chance is Sunday night.

This weekend is more of a wind chill event than an absolute temp event. We’ll see how low ORH and BOS go since they are non-radiators. I’ll be impressed if BOS can get near 0F and ORH can crack -5F.

Doesn’t matter. QPF is the only map anyone should look at with the ptype being all snow

Weeklies have been on and off with the blocking in march. This run was still pretty cold but didn't have much Atlantic blocking. But previous runs have had it. It's the hardest form of blocking to predict though, so can't take much stock in that part of it. You can see the trailing 5-day mean here for Mar 10-15 (similar for the several days around it).....basically a +TNH pattern....but if we throw a bit more ATL blocking on top if guidance is struggling with that, then you could imagine it could get pretty fun...but even this pattern could do some things

1930s had some epic torches....I'm sure the dust bowl helped out....low dewpoint air everywhere. But even some of the winters in the '30s were obscenely warm...quite the contrast when you mix in a 1933-34 with those warm winters....kind of like having 2014-15 next to 2015-16 last decade. (early 1950s are sneaky VERY warm in NNE too)

Weeklies have a decent gradient pattern going into early March....not that they have been great this winter.

Yeah this doesnt look like a narrow area of 3-4" while everyone else gets flurries....seems like there's enough lift for a general light snow to give a lot of folks 1-2"....the question is who gets 3-5". Prob a few enhanced areas do. And yes, people may not want an inch or two, but that has nothing to do with the forecast.

congrats scooter on 3k gone wild there

Euro OP is also similar for 2/11. Nothing huge but perhaps advisory snowfall.