ORH_wxman

1/6 looks decent on Euro today. Moderate 3-6 type event.

That New years weak clipper is trying to get slightly enhanced in eastern areas. Wonder if someone can pick up a couple inches. Still just expecting a coating but 1-2 isn’t impossible.

Has another period of interest a few days later too. Obviously the further you go out, the more diffuse the mean gets but that’s definitely still something.

This is pretty solid for 200+ hours…forget the OP runs for a bit…maybe it doesn’t work out but you have a very definitive signal there

Which part of Haverhill? Lol. I think the northern side is where there was 7” of sand. Massive cutoff near there.

Oh yeah, I understand it. That’s why I posted it. It is still irrational behavior in an objective/scientific context but I understand why people get panicky about not seeing blizzards on 300 hour OP runs. The lack of success in the KU department recently causes irrational behavior to manifest itself in that manner. I also think the utter glut of storms in the 2010s also produced irrational behavior in terms of expectations. We expected every shortwave to bomb out and give us 8-12” if not something bigger….and for a while, we kept pulling the slot level and ringing up triple 7s. It’s gone the complete opposite direction now but both outcomes are unsustainable.

I think that’s placing too much precision on an analog. If all you knew is that we’d get a bomb near the cape with plenty of cold, Wed roll the dice every time and not worry about the nuances.

I do…if operational runs aren’t showing 288 hour blizzards, people get antsy regardless of whether the longwave setup looks nice….its a weird manifestation of the last 5 years. Nobody used to give a shit about whether we had 300 hour storms but now a significant portion of the forum gets anxiety over it. It’s probably because of the lack of KUs in that time period. Somehow, seeing them on the OP runs in clown range is some kind of crutch I guess.

If DC gets hit big is usually is less impressive here but there’s been plenty that hit us very hard that hit NYC too (Feb ‘78, April ‘82, Jan ‘11, Jan ‘18, etc off the top of my head)

Anytime I see 925-950ish going above 0C relatively quickly, I sell big ice accretion. You’d need something super inverted like 20F at the sfc to overcome the warm drops.

I hated that storm but always love your account of it. We almost got our pack wiped in that one. Only reason we didn’t was because there was so much sleet and water equivalent in it from like 5 previous high QPF events that had started with the Dec 29-30, 1993 storm. But it was mowed down to about 2” of glacier.

This tends to work better when the pack is deep and higher water content. It takes time to heat water…this type of pack prob gets pretty ripe quite quickly once dews reach 38-40F. You're area got a nicer dose of QPF so the valleys there could be tough to wipe out.

I dunno, I really think it depends how long temps are above 40F…in your area to my area, there’s a decent chance it wipes the pack. Prob gonna be 12+ hours of 40+ dews. Not a lot of water in the pack either (though my bottom layer from 12/23 is kind of dense). Western CT up into ORH county might keep it though as they spend less time above 40F. If we had like an inch of water in the pack then this wouldn’t wipe it out, but this is not that type of pack.

Gonna be a miller B while you’re gone just to give you one more round in Ray’s beast shed.

I also don’t think the accretion will be overly efficient in this type of setup. When the cold layer is so shallow like this, the liquid drops are not as supercooled so they won’t freeze as quickly on contact. In icing events where we have robust cold up into the 925-950 layer, that’s when the accretion is usually much more efficient. It prob will start pretty icy but then then it will get pretty marginal.

-2 at AFN while ORH is 20F. About as fake as it gets, lol. But there will def be some stubborn cold overnight tonight that will cause icy spots.

Looks too flat now for much if anything. Maybe it comes back but I’d forecast flurries right now. Pattern looks pretty awesome though beyond that. Here’s day 5-10 and then day 10-15 respectively on EPS

Lock in big miller B for that 1/5-1/6 signal.

Where you going?

That’s not a particularly cold pattern shown with the lower heights over AK but it’s not a torch for us either because of NAO blocking. It’s occurring during a favorable climatological period too where the averages are already pretty cold. Weeklies have been rebuilding the WPO/EPO ridge after that though which would bring more reinforcing cold air if it verified.

Pretty decent pattern as we go into early January. This is a 5 day mean from EPS….note how all the lower heights are now down south. Going to be more receptive to potential coastal storms

Actually not in Holliston right now, lol. But it looked pretty good there on radar for a while so I’m guessing 4-5”?

They managed to slowly claw their way to 4”+ with additional redevelopment late evening….wasnt pretty and the best was north, but that allowed the event to still be decent there.

Def starting to lose the really dynamic lift from earlier. Radar becoming more banded/less organized. Still snowing well with good ratios but not the heavy stuff from earlier

As currently shown it is NY day into that evening.