ORH_wxman

You’ve only had 2”? I had 4.5” in the norlun on 2/7 and 1.6” last Sunday.

Best lift looks below DGZ on most guidance too so I don’t love it. But some of these runs have very intense rates for 2-3 hours. So if someone gets a surprise 4-6”, it will be because they prob ended up in a narrow area of very strong lift/rates.

I’m thinking 2-4” here…maybe 1-3”. Well see how quickly things cool.

Yeah and it’s tedious enough that we could get almost nothing from this next 7 days too. Though I don’t think we’re done after Monday by any stretch. There’s risk for some warmth or rain but 18z GFS and some of these other random runs show you how it can break very very snowy too. Lots of cold lurking up north in the extended.

Def better aloft there. AI having such a strong signal for Monday makes me feel like we’ll trend that way but I’d like to figure out the first two systems first. They are all over the place. Friday especially has been all over the place. Wednesday is a hard forecast because of how narrow the heavier precip is…Friday night is literally like 0” to 12” for possible realistic totals.

18z gfs gone wild in the extended too

EPS for each threat… Wednesday Friday night Sunday night/Monday

That is def not ‘78 that tip posted. I’ve memorized that one too.

Yeah the spine ORH hills from Paxton/Rutland/Princeton/Westminster is where you want to focus those larger totals. It drops off to the west near barre once you are on the west side of the slopes. Lot of easterly flow in that storm so the spine and eastern slopes did well.

That’s 3/31/97. I’ll never forget that h5 look.

Yeah pretty much all of N ORH county from Worcester northward had 20”+ (and prob most of northern half of Middlesex county). My guess is the airport prob had 24-25” but we can’t change it. We were on ne.weather back then and there was a dearth of Worcester county reports (esp northern half). We had a guy measure in Paxton (28”) and Rutland (27”) so we felt good about a general 24-28” in the towns immediately north west of ORH. There were 30 burgers up near NH border like Winchendon I think reported 30. Can’t remember what Ashburnham coop had but I remember we all thought it was super low (prob because they just stuck a yard stick in the ground at the end). Southern half of county was more like 16-20”….a lot of storms played out like that during 2000-01. Northern half of the county got destroyed.

Icon is a warm outlier for Monday but as long as we’re talking model solutions, it’s def rain for almost all of SNE at the height of the storm.

If you like rain. Even for your area.

GFS is low end warning for parts of W MA and CT.

I had 26.5” just on the north side of ORH in the Mar 2001 event. Airport I think under measured in that one. Their final report came out hours before the steady snow ended and it was never updated. They just kept it at 22.0”. Those 1997-2001 years were ASOS disaster years at ORH and BDL.

NAMs went south a decent tick…RGEM and ICON very small ticks south. Basically noise on those two.

Not much. This isn’t a huge inverted airmass oozing down…we might see a little more of that on the weekend threats but this one is mostly rain vs snow. Could be a very narrow area of IP and marginal ZR but we’re prob talking like 10-20 miles wide.

Whatever happens on Wednesday, looks like advisory snow or better is in a pretty narrow band…something like 50-75 miles tops.

Yep wrong thread but NAM looked like a loaded gun at 84h there.

Yep. Stein over the last week-plus sucks. Especially once you get deeper into February. The sublimation/melting around the edges is pretty minimal when you are cold/dry in mid-January. But once you are in mid-February, even in a cold pattern, it really gets noticeable with those shards forming on snow banks and edges. Need to refresh that stuff.

At least there’s a lot of action to track. Very very active pattern coming up. Could be a lot of disappointment too when you’re playing with fire along the boundary but there’s always a few patterns where you need to ride the line if you want the goods.

I like the 61/31 with 9.5” of snow. Looks like a coop from elevated Utah or Arizona.

On the flip side, that’s a great spot to be right now. Having each storm teasing you. If it was doing this inside of 3 days that would suck but decent chance you get something good.

The system that improved the most today on both EPS and Euro Skynet was Friday night/early Saturday. Doesn’t get shredded as much but also pretty cold too. Monday still has the most upside imho, but Friday night could end up pretty good too if we trend it like today. Monday definitely got some more support too today. But being 8 days out makes it less meaningful when you see a model shift.

Let’s split the difference.