ORH_wxman

I think 1-3” is prob the best forecast at the moment down in the pike region. We are relying on like 3 hours of WAA precip.

Both 2003-2004 and 2002-2003 were about 0.4F behind at this point. Still quite cold but tied for 23rd while this year is tied for 17th

Yeah it is still the best model. But as we’ve said so many times, it isn’t just the utterly dominant force relative to other guidance that it was in the 2000s/2010s. The gap has been closed some. The way you know deep down it’s still the best is that every single person here if they had to pick a model to be on an island showing the solution they want, they’d still pick the euro. Nobody is picking any other global model to be on an island in the medium range.

Euro still seems to win on the synoptic features, but it's been struggling with smaller stuff and QPF placement on some of these events.

18z Euro is starting to blow up the WAA too, but it's doing it a little late. My guess is it will start doing it earlier and earlier with each cycle. It also had that little weenie band down in S CT like the RGEM had at 12z, but it wasn't nearly as wild with the qpf as that RGEM run.

I’m not worried about sfc temps for most…it’s the midlevels. But still a ping ways out. A whiff south is still a concern.

GFS juicing up a bit too at 18z....Really likes Ray's area up into SE NH, but it got better for all of SNE vs 12z.

Coldest start at ORH too since 1995-96 at this point. The two years immediately ahead of 2026 are 1976 and 1996 and both were quite torchy around 2/9-11 so we actually might pass those two over the next few days even though we're not going to be particularly frigid....today's number will be pretty cold though which aren't in the books yet.

RGEM was the first to really pick up on the WAA snows in this one just as it was the first (and most consistent) in showing the north shore jackpot in Saturday's event. I've been pretty impressed with the RGEM performance this winter....lets see if it can be correct here as well. Doesn't mean no hiccups (I think that stripe of warning snowfall jusyt N of the merritt was prob a hiccup on 12z run, but otherwise it's been liking the general WAA enhancement after that initial thin band....and other model guidance has slowly caught on except for the stubborn Euro)

It;s the site of the old KNZW airbase....it used to have manned obs in the early to mid 1990s before closing. It's almost in Abington on the town line IIRC....and yeah, just due west of Norwell.

18z ICON and Reggie both looked better and more organized....Reggie did lower that ridiculous WAA stripe across S CT which seemed a little spurious, but the rest of the region juiced up.

2/16 is kind of a mess on guidance....I'm hedging that something will go wrong on that one, but I do think if it gets near the BM, it will be a good event for most. Cold has been undermodeled and even a degree or 2 will make a good difference for the CP.

NAM gone wild. Not biting on solid advisory yet for here, but 1-3 seems more likely today. Euro still paltry but it's kind of an outlier. It hasn't been great this winter....especially with smaller events.

Euro skynet is a whiff on the 16th. Hasn’t liked this threat for several cycles.

1-2” and call it a day. Don’t really see more than that unless there’s an enhanced area like Reggie/GFS kind of show further south.

Still not great in euro but prob 1-2” northeast of BDL-PVD line.

Yes it will. Even a week of normal temps will feel very warm considering the last 3 weeks.

18z NAM is still aggressive. Prob advisory amounts for eastern SNE and up into CNE/NNE

Notice how the shades get lighter as you go closer to northeast coast. Not even sure it will be AN there. Under 50% probability. My guess is it will technically come in AN but not by much. Bush league torch.

Pretty snowy EPS run overall. Has more chances after the 16th too. Mean is double digits across a lot of New England. It’s not a frigid pattern but it’s just not submitting to the classic Feb Niña torch idea that has been an instinct to gravitate towards for many of us Mets. It’s a real struggle to get sustained large positive departures on these runs. You’ll see a run or two that starts to look like that but then it disappears the next run or even on the same run it can’t last more than a day or two. The in-situ blocking seems to dominate us locally while the plains have an easier time getting big warmth.

Plenty of spread but def a lot more potent than yesterday

So overnight was doom and gloom….this flips the other way. Been terrible model consistency (including ensembles…we expect OPs to jump a lot) in the medium range since late January.

Yep I’m with @dendrite, I was surprised we didn’t get more 16-20” reports when we had a bunch of 10-13” reports by mid morning. So I’d say that 16” is legit and there’s prob a few more areas that did just good near them but didn’t report.

Oh so the previous claim of 19 days was incorrect. Still an impressive streak but they won’t be breaking that.

What’s AOB 33F? I think the BOS steak doesn’t include 34F.