ORH_wxman

Yeah GGEM is basically a whiff. Some light snows for eastern areas but nothing of significance.

Wish Reggie was correct with warning snows here but I’m on the side of Ray’s map…I think 2-4” with lots of crud in there is the more likely scenario. Could even be less too if something like 12k NAM is correct but seems to be an outlier on the QPF being so light.

As the heights crash and the ML dryslot approaches late tomorrow evening, some of the guidance shows very intense precip…Reggie was hitting this but even the 3k NAM has it now too (not really the the 12k)….there could be a heavy burst of snow for 2-3 hours or so if the column is cool enough.

NAM is an unmitigated disaster in SE Canada for getting any type of storm even close to us. Have to hope it’s just the clown range NAM being the clown range NAM.

Gotta watch Saturday. Look at how deep the DGZ gets underneath that rapidly crashing H5 wave. Wouldn’t take much for someone to stack some fluffies if a little LL convergence sets up overhead. North shore might be in a good spot again…don’t expect norlun totals again but some enhancement is def possible.

NAM is decently south of 06z. The WAA thump though looks weak and disorganized. The best snows for us down here might be as the heights are collapsing after the WAA “thump” very late Friday evening and then during the day on Saturday when hangback moisture is prevalent in a very deep DGZ.

So we’re all holding out on the OP euro.

What idiot started this thread?

Def more members inside the BM now on 18z EPS. I think 00z is going to be a big run....can't have another regression back east like last night's runs.

06z run was damned closed on Euro....it crushed the cape.

Yeah usually euro showing this would be a death knell to the threat, but I don't trust the Euro at all....

Euro skynet with a nice bump NW That would be a good hit for eastern areas.

I feel like this is prob an advisory deal near and N of pike....maybe someone a little further north can get low end warning.

Few rain drops outside and 36F...that's the first time it has rained here in over a month.

This season had far better snowpack retention too because December 2003 turned torchy about 8-10 days after the big dog and everything got wiped out before Xmas. January 2004 had good "pack" retention, but calling it a pack is stretching it....it was a few inches of sand. Still think we can get another big storm. 2004 tried and sort of failed on 3/16....moderate storm but left some on the table.

RGEM and Euro at 06z were really good for pike region. GFS was decent too though a little warmer, but the GFS has all this weenie hangback snow for 24 hours after the main WAA thrust.

I’d be surprised if anyone saw more than C-1”. Except maybe highest terrain of southern Berkshires and NW CT, and even that might be a stretch.

Prob gonna see some flip flopping on this one as models try and untangle the knots out west.

Nah, keep the 40s and garbage onshore flow until late March. Let’s layer this pack up. No desire whatsoever for mud season and brown grass.

Need a bump NW at 12z. 06z euro suite including skynet was def a bit better.

Avoiding the glue factory

Yeah NAM isn’t biting on the north trend of the hrrr and rap.

It’s almost impossible to get a full-on blown whiff on a MECS like we would occasionally get back then, but yeah, this season hasnt been a banner year for model guidance. Btw I forgot to respond to your question about snowfall to date vs climo here back in the February thread…I’m at about 43” I think to date and average to date would prob be around 38-40”. We do still have some beefy snow climo to get through the next 3-4 weeks before it tapers quickly. Snowfall is AN but not drastically so…but snow depth days are way AN since we haven’t melted much since mid January…and even December and early January had a lot of snow cover days even though it was frequently 1-3” crusty inches. I think the next 7-10 days will decide whether this season wants to go well AN into the upper 20-25% of seasons or remain relatively close to the median year and be more remembered for the prolonged cold and snow cover rather than actual storms and totals.

It’s been a tough few weeks on short range stuff. Bringing us back to the first half of 2010s and late 2000s with these shorter range hiccups. I remember way back during the Feb 2006 storm, the 06z ETA completely whiffed us 18 hours before the event started and we all just kind of shrugged and tossed it like it was normal before we even saw other 06z runs. That was life back then.

I like this call right now. Chance at a bit higher upside but I wouldn’t honk that yet. If it trends better, can always adjust since it’s 3+ days out.