ORH_wxman

Nice CJ showing up for scooter

Great post. I mentioned yesterday that 12/14/95 was the top analog on CIPS (at least it was yesterday)…similar setup with a very mild center of the country and a weakish disturbance running into a cold dome over New England. That one was a bit further north but same idea.

Much of CT could outperform Boxing Day 2010….there was a big sucker hole in that one that also extended up into chunks of MA where totals were like 5-8”.

Wondering if we can really rip on an ORH-PVD line now fora couple hours. That ML fronto has been holding together stronger on each run.

Some guidance never warm sectors north of pike over interior.

Those earlier NAM runs were cracked out. Nobody was expecting 6-9” from ORH to Taunton. If you were, you had snow globe glasses on. But this looked like basically a clean whiff for central and eastern areas 36 hours ago so getting advisory amounts would be a big win.

PSF-WST basically goes over TOL

There’s gonna be some strong bands in this because of how strong the fronto is….esp in western areas. It starts to weaken pretty fast once it crosses central areas but there’s still enough to produce decent snows. But further west it could pound at 2” per hour for a time. I think most of SNE will reach advisory snows…the question is how far northeast can the warning snows reach. I feel like right now it’s prob like a PSF-WST line…but inching that another 25 miles or so makes a big difference in affecting a lot more people (you start to include ORH and some of the towns east of there.)

Damn I thought you had an inch or two. Well, at least that fits with the narrative of getting waterboarded in the snow department in the last 7 years there.

It’s kind of amazing we had back to back white Christmases when superimposed on the lack of snow overall. But at least one thing we’ve had since the beginning of last winter is cold. Anyways, yeah I’m leaning toward advisory here but that dry air makes me nervous. I’d feel better with one more little tick north.

Some nice bands. 925mb is getting very cold. Into the DGZ so these might be producing some nice dendrites

Man, what a tough forecast. At least around here. I think it’s pretty easy to go 5-8” or so for most of CT. Maybe a stripe of higher if we can pin down where that max forcing ends up. But further northeast this could plausibly be 4-5” or a coating of sand. The fronto gets pretty strong even into MA. If that lowest level of dry air can be overcome then you could still get a surprise band that produces north.

Top analog for this system is 12/14/95 but this is def a further south version of that.

What was wrong with the euro there?

Euro went NE a bit. Prob gets almost all of CT into 4”+ now. Except maybe extreme E or NE zones.

18z GFS looks a hair SW of 12z.

It’s probably true. Heavy snow for 3 hours is going to give you like a quick 4-5” and then you grab a couple on either side of it, there’s your warning event. People shouldn’t be expecting double digits in this. They might happen, but probably because banding was even stronger than anticipated and you never know quite where the best bands will set up.

This is gonna be a crazy battle between the mid and upper level support for heavy snow and the obscene dry arctic air to the northeast. I’m looking at several different models right now and almost all of them are punching some serious lift, fronto, and dPVA well into SNE, but the further northeast you go, it just fights that ridiculous low level arctic air. There’s gonna be crazy Virga on the northeast side. Prob the type of system where you have Virga under 15-20 dbz returns.

Icon and Rgem look very similar to 12z. Rgem might have been a hair NE with the heaviest stuff and icon a hair SW.

SREFS look like they went north a bit too. We’ll see what the 18z globals do but this trend doesn’t feel like it’s stabilized yet.

You may have a watch there if euro ticks NE again . You’re pretty far west and longitude is the key.

They’ll update in afternoon package most likely.

Jan 4, 2018 was pretty cold too over interior. Maybe not teens (except part of it but def low 20s for a long stretch)

2015 had several.

Yeah I was looking at mid levels and there’s an area that looks like it would be pounding but it’s north of the good QPF. Wonder if there is an undermodeled death band for a few hours near that northern line.