ORH_wxman

1995 had a biggie on the last day of February. Close enough. Massive ice storm hit NY state in March 1991.

Euro finally gives Kevin his catastrophic ice storm in clown range. Let’s do it.

Let’s make a run at early March 2007 temps with that PV. We can cheer on a Carolinas/VA snow event.

I have about 7.5-8" so the satellite-derived one isn't far that off here, but its def slightly high overall which isn't a surprise because of the water content. The pack in ORH was about 11-12" on winter hill. I think I have about 3 inches of water in the pack...it's ridiculous. I should cut a biscuit and melt it and see what it actually is.

The landing doesn’t look egregiously hard…plane def got put down quickly at the end but it doesn’t seem like it should break off the landing gear like that. Guess we’ll find out more when they review the black boxes for sink rate at the end and hopefully they are able to recover some key landing gear pieces. Wouldn’t surprise me if the gear was faulty.

They aren’t less accurate. We’ve just gotten spoiled at their accuracy increase in the last 15 years. We’ve tracked a lot of storms from over a week out that didn’t waiver too hard…that was almost unheard of in the 2005-2010 years. This particular storm never looked good for us once we got inside of 6 days…if it was 2008 instead of 2025, we would’ve never even really given it a second thought other than clown range fodder…but the increase in accuracy of the models in the last decade-plus has conditioned us to take a D6-7 threat somewhat seriously. So it actually produces some feeling of disappointment or being deceived by guidance when the rug is pulled at 132 hours instead of just laughing it off as clown range.

Late February is definitely a weak spot on storm climo. ORH has daily records for snowfall in the single digits for the last few days of February. I always found that fascinating since early March has had so many blockbusters. It’s even somewhat weak going back to about 2/20ish…you really only have 2 or 3 biggies over the record during that 8-9 day period…the biggest being the famous Feb ‘69 100 hour storm.

Yeah the fact that Reggie and Icon didn’t seem interested prettt much discredits the NAM solution. Even the 3k was kind of skeptical of the 12k solution.

I hope they get it. I’d take an advisory event and run. Might as well refresh the pack if this cold is going to linger. Seeing a big cape hit would be nice…they are due for a colder storm.

NAM gonna suck all the SE posters back in

I’m selling an early spring. Don’t really see anything on guidance that supports warmth in the first half of March. Maybe it’s wrong though.

Let’s go Mar 2013 this year.

Yeah even if it wasn’t a perfectly phased HECS, prob easy 8-12/10-15 type event if we didn’t have so much of a train wreck north of Maine. Taps into plenty of gulf moisture.

EPS is flirting with the idea of colder/snowier though…you can see it with the height field near AK trying to link up with western ridge. It’s kind of half-assed, but you can see how it wouldn’t take much to be a lot more.

Yeah population gets pretty damned sparse in New England above 1500 feet. I’m sure the weather plays part of that too. It’s mostly sickos like us that like the weather at higher elevations over interior New England. Terrain is often rugged too.

We all love “spring” in New England. Late March through early May in New England is everyone’s idea of weather paradise.

There’s a reason the 1980s aren’t remembered fondly around here for those old enough to experience some of those winters.

Yeah it has been shown for a while that we weren’t going to just shoot into Morch 2012 or 2010. Hopefully it’s not a bunch of close calls and cold rainers. Either warm up or give us a couple big storms out of it.

About the only thing the 34F rain was effective at yesterday afternoon was getting rid of the thin layer of ice on the sidewalks. I did put a bit of salt down last night though because I knew refreezing would be awful.

About 30-31”.

All bass, no treble. Not sure I’ve seen snow look like this when I haven’t cracked 6” in an event this season

Solidly below normal for snowfall so far. But retention has been good. Been continuous snow cover save for 2 days since 1/11 plus had a decent stretch in December with cover (including Xmas)….snowfall is a D for a grade so far but retention and temps bring the overall grade up some.

Yeah this thing really never got inside D5. I mentioned that to Ray yesterday on how the discourse was pretty insane for 156 hour model solutions. I get that there was cross-model agreement but it’s still like D7, lol. It could have come back after slipping over the weekend but the time for that was probably yesterday.

Legit obs here KORH 171354Z 29040G59KT 10SM OVC027 M07/M12 A2939 RMK AO2 PK WND 28059/1353 SNE40 SLP964 P0000 T10671122 $