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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Yeah the euro gets N stream involved but not as deeply as some of the other solutions. It’s not quite as slow. It’s still enough for a solid SNE hit but it left some on the table. But it’s more than enough to work with at D5-6
  2. ORH_wxman
    GFS seems on its own right now.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Give the way that evolves, that would have a high ceiling. You don’t necessarily see it this run on the QPF output…it’s “merely” a 7-12/8-14 type event (toss kuchera weenie maps which go wild with frigid temps) but you could potentially juice that up more with how that whole upper air evolves.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Congrats on Coke streamers mixed in with the synoptic precip
  5. ORH_wxman
    Euro suite slowed down overnight which definitely helped getting the storm north. I think that’s definitely what we want, a bit slower evolution that still gets plenty of northern stream involved…but that delay will allow the TPV to lift northeast and ease some of the confluence over us.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Can’t really hate this h5 look at 126
  7. ORH_wxman
    Canadian looks a bit slower. It might deliver though.
  8. ORH_wxman
    GFS totally whiffs on any phasing of the northern stream. We’re cooked without that.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Pretty much all guidance has been trending north. The question is whether that trend stops or reverses or we see it keep going.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Yeah this is actually a pretty nice look
  11. ORH_wxman
    I think every major model gives at least some snow to SNE now…evolution and timing vary.
  12. ORH_wxman
    https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org go to single station “seasonal time series”, choose “average temp” and then choose “other” for the period and it will let you manually enter the start and end dates for whatever period you want to measure.
  13. ORH_wxman
    If it starts looking like a very big threat, maybe we will do a New England radio show.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Yeah, your mojo is back. Now that we had one trend in our favor, it’s time to step on the gas, not back off. We can trend this bastard north. Western troughs accessing the gulf.
  15. ORH_wxman
    That’s a better look on 18z euro at H5. Slower and trying to phase in some of that energy
  16. ORH_wxman
    My guess is we’ll get something or it won’t be that close.
  17. ORH_wxman
    On the flip side, the OP run is trending north.
  18. ORH_wxman
    18z GFS Skynet is more suppressed this run for the weekend. Scraper.
  19. ORH_wxman
    There’s a path to a great winter. Even December wasn’t bad. It was frustrating for sure because it felt like we left a lot on the table, but at the end of the day, it was cold in December with a lot of smaller snow events to add to the holiday feel and we had long stretches of snow cover. If we somehow can cash in on this final 10 days of January and then those weeklies are close to correct for February, all of the sudden you are looking at a big winter.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Here’s a few 5 day snapshots (from beginning to end of Feb)
  21. ORH_wxman
    It’s says parallel. Not AI. It’s basically just an upgrade to the OP if it passes the test phase.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Weeklies go full weenie for pretty much all of February. I’ll believe it when I see it but that was an impressive run today.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Growth really improved after about 830-9pm. Those 3 hours or so between 9-midnight we really stacked it up. Prob had at least 2/3rds of our accumulation during that stretch. I don’t think it ever snowed truly heavy for more than about 15 min at a time. But just very consistent efficient moderate snow with those heavier bursts mixed in which was stacking at 1-1.5” per hour.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Yep. A lot of times that IVT stuff is very fluffy on the back end of a storm. You cool the lower-midlevels enough so that that even the lower level lift below 800mb is in the DGZ. That was showing up all over the soundings yesterday and the night before.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Had to be sub -40C stuff on a Montreal express trajectory. The perfect storm of ingredients to get those types of numbers.
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