ORH_wxman

There’s obviously plenty of ways to get a torching cutter too but this H5 look is very CAD-ish up in New England.

On which model? There’s like 10 different variations of what I’ve seen for that period.

06z euro improved again after the regression at 00z. I don’t think this one has a high ceiling though. There’s just not enough room. But it could be a solid advisory event maybe.

Classic west slope VT storm. That west and southwest flow does great there.

Yeah most of SNE is prob advisory that run outside of far NW areas maybe….then you maybe get into low end warning in SE areas. Way too early to worry about amounts though. We can’t even get guidance to agree on if a system will even hit us.

I think if you drop that another 50-100 miles west/southwest then you’re starting to give this enough room to tilt shortwave negative. That’s where you’d get this from a general 3-6/4-8 type event into double digits where a true CCB circulation can start rapidly developing. But at this point, I’m still leery of the whiff east. I don’t like how progressive the flow starts looking behind it so that’s always a worry. But if we can get guidance to trend solidly at 00z, then I’d start thinking a bigger solution isn’t merely a fantasy.

Yeah…the low just escapes east before the real fun, but something to watch. Still a lot of good fronto on that run so SE areas would still prob get low end warning snows or close to it on 18z euro.

Yeah if you dig those heights on the southwest side, it will help that TPV lobe to drop into the void and pump up downstream heights to get the moisture transport northwest over land.

Far SE areas look like they try to catch the developing CCB. That would prob be some violence on the Cape…esp if it can pop quickly as that vort catches up to sfc.

Euro looks better than 12z

They are like one congealed mass of elongated TPV on the GFS/Icon…but esp the GFS. They stay much more independent on euro/canadian and NAM (if we care about clown range NAM)

At least we have the old EE rule in effect.

NAM would prob be a little Nuke

Pretty good trends today too on EPS for the Xmas period....notice how much lower the heights are in SE Canada....this is kind of what we saw in clown range on the OP run where there was a lot of ridging over CONUS but we were staying colder due to the lower heights in SE Canada. That's a trend you'll want to see keep up as we get closer if you are looking to avoid macaw parrots for Xmas.

It's very cold on the backside of the system so there def could be some ocean enhancement on N or NNW winds.

EPS might actually be more bullish than the OP by a touch for Sunday.

Not doing anything yet on 12z Xmas morning (on the doorstep)…but if it went another panel or two I think it would prob be a front ender for snow (at least N of HFD) then flipping/mixing.

At least we Houdini a White Xmas on the OP Euro.

Yeah we literally need like 75-100 miles on the PV placement to turn this into a likely low end warning event.

Euro QPF….youre prob bumping that a bit NW on these types of setups. You get good fronto on NW side of that thermal gradient.

Looks like the post-Xmas 1984 warm shot. ORH hit 70F in that. Latest 70F on record.

If the solution ends up verifying pretty close to the AI models, that would definitely be a big win for them. They’ve been way steadier than the regular OP runs.

06z euro def brought it back…esp for SE areas. I’d want to see the 12z suite as a whole look better though before believing it.

Def quite a good change on the 18z eps

Fwiw, the energy responsible for the Sunday system is over Siberia and crosses over north of AK tomorrow night and finally into Canada by Thursday during the day. So we could still see some decent changes.