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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    NAM looks a little more amped through 15h…we’ll see how it handles as it climbs latitude.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Coming down moderate here now. Finally starting to stick to everything except pavement. 33F.
  3. ORH_wxman
    All about rates for eastern zones imho….hard to have major ptype issues if 925 is like -3 with good rates. If the rates are crappy, it will be white rain. But as I always say, “if the rates are so crappy you can’t snow in that thermal profile, you weren’t missing out on much anyway.”
  4. ORH_wxman
    Regular EPS
  5. ORH_wxman
    Actually snowing good here now. Just got in on the edge. We’ll see for how long. Temp 33.5.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Yeah both were consistently SE of other guidance on this.
  7. ORH_wxman
    That band is crushing ORH KORH 171754Z 21008KT 1/4SM R11/2200V2800FT +SN FZFG VV009 M01/M02 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP153 P0003 60005 T10111017 10006 21039 58033
  8. ORH_wxman
    Kind of weird being on the line here. We get occasional weenie flakes and then it will stop and then start again. Temp has been around 33-34F but literally like 5-7 miles S or E is 37-40F…it’s like we’re getting a bit of evap cooling being on the edge
  9. ORH_wxman
    That’s pretty good poundtown near BOS down through south shore tomorrow evening and early overnight hours on the euro.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Might lose a couple tenths of QPF down near buzzards bay. But if euro is right you’d still be near warning criteria despite that.
  11. ORH_wxman
    12z euro just for tomorrows storm
  12. ORH_wxman
    That’s a big hit for SE Ma on euro. Even up into BOS.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Canadian ticked west. Really nice look for SE MA on that run.
  14. ORH_wxman
    OP GFs sfc kind of escaped east that run so it wasn’t quite as juiced with the main stuff. Still has moderate stuff pretty far west though. It actually might have trended slightly better over interior while being a bit worse for coast.
  15. ORH_wxman
    That model was jacking the Berkshires overnight. Pretty useless more than 24h out. Looks like it’s starting to come back to reality.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Has that nice curl to it
  17. ORH_wxman
    Looking a little more amped
  18. ORH_wxman
    Prob borderline warning here. Not buying that much yet but hopefully rest of 12z guidance keeps ticking W
  19. ORH_wxman
    I feel like it overdoes diabatic warming when there’s no obvious high or ageo flow from the north. Esp beyond 24h…euro actually used to to this pretty bad too but now it’s much better than a few years back.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it’s prob a little on the warm side…just not egregiously so. I’d prob shave a couple degrees off it around here. Euro seemed more realistic.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I don’t see an issue with this run. All guidance has 32-35 tomorrow during the day until it falls late afternoon. The real snow doesn’t happen until then anyway. There’s some front-running stuff that has been a relatively recent development on most guidance that falls morning/midday but it’s not the main show…at least for eastern areas it isn’t.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Icon was more amped too.
  23. ORH_wxman
    The vort didn’t quite curl like 00z but everything started west so the end result was pretty similar to 00z…it was heftier south of here. Maybe a bit better on south shore as well.
  24. ORH_wxman
    06z NAM is coming in more amped than 00z through 27h
  25. ORH_wxman
    Yeah look at that vortmax. Much better on the 00z run. That’s what we need to watch. If you can allow that to stay more consolidated with a bit of H5 curl, you can escalate things pretty fast.
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