ORH_wxman

Feb 2023 was bare ground. But we had snow pack for Jan 2019, late Dec 2017/early Jan 2018, and Feb 2016. Any other arctic outbreaks since 2016 that I didn’t list were prob pretty meh so they don’t stick out to me. But that Feb ‘23 outbreak was so impressive considering it was bare ground and yet it fell in prestigious company for all time lows at some of the major SNE sites.

That band in SE MA is crushing

Could be a SE MA special. The trend since last night has been to reduce the vort curl. That will limit how far west the good stuff makes it.

This snow was actually shown on a decent amount of guidance. But it’s not expected to be much. If you grab anything more than an inch or so, consider it pure gravy. Someone down in SE MA might get a lucky few inches from that band before the main show later.

Here’s the link https://www.weathertap.com/radar/local?site=KBOX&type=N0R&attr=ANI

Really nice band down in SE areas. PYM county over to upper cape.

The one thing that looks really good though is ratios might be excellent later in the system if NAM soundings have any clue. Esp later tonight/overnight/early AM. Even the IVT stuff with low level lift is in the DGZ and could produce some fluff. Something to watch.

I think I’d go 3-6/4-7 here. Don’t think the dynamics are there for lots of 6-8 type amounts. Maybe that changes, but subtle trend overnight of reducing the “curl” in the vort as it passes by.

We had about 3 tenths this morning that partially melted and then another couple tenths in the afternoon. Half inch total.

There’s a lot of “hangback” snow showing up on the mesos and even the euro kind of had it. Pretty robust IVT sig. Sometimes those can tack on an unexpected inch or two…esp when you get colder on the back end and even low level lift is in the DGZ.

NAM looks exceptional in the soundings too during the evening hours for a time. Lots of cross hair sig showing up. Hopefully it’s correct.

One thing that might help is that when looking at these soundings, the DGZ is pretty deep. So if we can get any type of decent deep layer lift, I’m guessing ratios will be pretty good even for a “wet snow”….its pretty cold off the deck during the meat of it so even 31-32F at the sfc could produce what I call “dry wet snow”. It’s kind of superficially wet maybe on the very sfc but it still is dry enough to hold lots of air if the snow growth is good. Just something to keep an eye on. If we see a lot of 5-6” amounts where 0.3-0.4” of QPF is being progged, it might not be a QPF bust, but better-than-expected ratios. Now if we just get lighter crap, none of this will even be relevant.

I’m actually liking my spot tomorrow. Far enough inland with a little elevation to avoid major temp issues, but far enough east to hopefully get some good bands even on an 18z scenario. I still think SE MA is going to rip for a while. Might have to wait until 00z for the real goods but they should arrive. I think the midday/PM stuff could be kind of banded/spotty…if it isn’t, that’s a positive sign.

I’d like to see that early band showing up more robustly on other guidance. Some guidance shows legit snow in that while others are kind of insignificant (like maybe an inch or so).

Hard to see 8” back into the deeper interior.

Yeah today was just a disaster on model guidance. Euro prob did the best but even it didn’t quite capture it accurately.

Yeah this is why we don’t really over analyze the NAM. 3k isn’t even that similar to 12k this run.

It’s the NAM though, so whatever. No use in over analyzing it.

Maybe a bit east, but yes, decent overlap.

Best dynamics this run are actually from about 495 back through Kevin’s area and CT

One mild negative this run is the vort doesn’t look like it has as good of a “curl” to it by 21h

NAM looks a little more amped through 15h…we’ll see how it handles as it climbs latitude.

Coming down moderate here now. Finally starting to stick to everything except pavement. 33F.

All about rates for eastern zones imho….hard to have major ptype issues if 925 is like -3 with good rates. If the rates are crappy, it will be white rain. But as I always say, “if the rates are so crappy you can’t snow in that thermal profile, you weren’t missing out on much anyway.”

Regular EPS