ORH_wxman

Eh I mean they are subtle differences but it might mean a lot in sensible wx outcome. I’d say the overall trend on that system has been better than 2 days ago….hopefully we push it just enough south to make it better. I could make a decent argument for either direction right now…on one hand, you have the sfc ridge still cresting over Maine at 12z on Tuesday which would argue the Euro is being way too quick to shove the sfc front northeast…OTOH, it’s not exactly a blocked flow there, so maybe it’s right.

Euro still not getting that sfc front staying south. Quick 1-2” shot on 12/23 and ending as mix/drizzle.

Yeah anything over a couple inches will last through Xmas morning. Xmas eve isn’t that warm. Maybe mid 30s and low dews with a solstice sun angle. But a coating to an inch would be in trouble.

The AI models basically have taken the place of the old extended GFS runs from a decade or two ago (and even a little further back when it was the MRF)….whenever you needed to see some good solutions, you’d just loop the extended GFS and watch all the cold and snow show up.

Yeah and it has juicier amounts too. Like 3-4” across the pike region. Ukie tries to keep the sfc front south which is what we’d want.

24th might stay pretty cold as northerly floW drills down behind low. Bigger question is how warm Cmas gets. Might be 38-40 or it could be like 44-48

12/26 is looking warmer and warmer the last 2-3 cycles too which kind of sucks. Except Euro Skynet which is frigid.

To be fair, you try to do that too with NNE fairly often. If we can trend the 23rd just a little more south/colder like skynet, then it would be pretty nice for most folks and probably slightly juicier amounts.

Crazy how much colder AI GfS is at 12z than the OP.

CT does fine too except maybe south coast has some issues.

Ggem Is a really nice shot of snow for interior. Prob 2-3”. SE areas are prob cooked after an initial burst perhaps. Hard to keep it frozen on S winds.

Twitter is pretty useless for weather. I was thinking about posting on there this winter but not sure I’m going to. Lots of hype. You’ll get that anywhere on social media but it’s especially pervasive where people scroll quickly and you want clicks.

12/23 might be tough in SE areas. Southerly or southwesterly flow in the low levels is never good there. The key though will be how cold we start. Could start off cold enough that it doesn’t matter as much.

The magic dewpoint number is really in the high 30s. Beyond a wetbulb of about 37-38F, the pack melting really takes off. That’s why sometimes you can get a 34F rainstorm on a decent pack and basically see almost no melting. But do it at 40F and it’s a different ballgame. The ice crystal structure changes faster.

AI models are colder beyond Xmas too. Hopefully they have a good idea.

Xmas 2020 was pretty epic. We lost power Xmas morning.

18z Euro still pretty nice for 12/23. Widespread 1-3”.

I mean, they looked good last night, lol. They didn’t look good today. We’ll see what tonight/tomorrow brings.

Less blocking today which is why the runs were warmer in the aggregate....which makes sense. If we see less blocking, we're gonna be pretty warm after Christmas.

Pretty clear break on Atlantic blocking from yesterday/last night on longer range ensembles (esp EPS....GEFS weren't quite as different). That's really the crux of it in the D9-15 range right now. If we get good blocking in the Atlantic, we'll probably be on the cold side of the boundary enough to get some events. If not, then we're gonna torch for a week in the means. The one good constant though is we tend to keep reloading the -WPO anytime it starts to wane, so that alone will probably help us not endure weeks long torches. The cold is always not far away when you have that healthy -WPO.

Euro is still pretty nice for 12/23. Would be awesome to get that to trend a smidge further south to juice it up a little more.

Anything post-Xmas needs to be taken a massive grain of salt right now around this part of the country. The only certainty is the middle of the country will blowtorch.

12z Euro skynet is out too and looks pretty stormy and not overly torchy over the run. I don’t think it’s a very good pattern unless we retrograde it a couple hundred miles at minimum but it wouldn’t take a whole lot of breaks to get through it with a couple decent events.

Actually a decent illustration of how mild it will get if we don’t get good blocking.

Yeah and we had about 11-12” of dense snow in that one. It wasn’t fluff. It was cold/dry but like very dense. Made the pack beyond obscene.