I think you need to look at a D5-6 system in the aggregate right now. Euro has consistently been the least amplified but it has overall come northwest over the last few cycles. The 06z run was more amped than this one but most of the previous runs were not. Other guidance continues to trend toward a pretty signficiant system. Also, both AI models have been bullish on this which has generally been a positive signal this winter.
You have a solid Hudson Bay block but it’s not exceptionally strong. You also have a potent shortwave that is already fairly amplified out west of us and the block is the one thing stopping it from being too amped. Taking all of these factors together, I think this is in a pretty good spot right now. There’s no guarantees. For a D6 system, it has more support than we typically see.