ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Yeah it’s basically a temporary spike producing a good Rockies ridge…not a classic full scale PNA ridge but eastern Rockies ridges have often produced excellent systems. That allows the shortwave to dig more and produce a coastal. We just don’t know quite yet where it makes the turn north. GFS was wide right.
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Euro skynet is a huge hit for Monday. Let’s hope it has a clue. It’s actually ok for the Friday system too. CT peeps get a bit on Wednesday.
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The AI guidance has seemed to like the Monday threat more than the others. Though I thought the 06z OP Euro looked pretty threatening at 144h.
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GGEM is focusing most of the stuff on the Saturday/Sunday shortwave…decent little event but again, those prob have limited upside potential of high end advisory or maybe low end warning.
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GFS trying for next Monday but this run will be wide right. That’s the one to watch. There’s advisory potential on the earlier events but upside is limited. The Monday system would have more upside.
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The funny part is the real pics in many cases are more impressive than AI for that stretch. A lot of the pics from 2015 in Boston look not credible.
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Torch tiger has been like metfan this winter except usually it’s metfan posting bombs at 300+ hours that never verify. This season it’s been Torch posting 300+ hour warm spells that never verify.
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Next Sunday/Monday is the system I’m watching. Anything before that is stein/shredded and obvioisly could be ptype issues too…but again, even the all snow areas on those doesn’t look prolific. Maybe advisory snowfall for whoever is lucky enough. Sunday/Monday could miss too but it has more room to amplify into a real system than the others.
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Yeah recent winters have really softened a decent number of posters in here. It’s not necessarily meant as an insult either…you can understand it somewhat….you invest time in tracking stuff but when you go through a tough stretch, it wears on you. Then you also benefit from lower heating bills and less cleanup and house maintenance. But some of us are true sickos and despite that, we’re not gonna root for spring in mid-February.
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Nice Euro skynet run at 18z…can we lock in next Sunday?
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NE CT (esp at elevation) is def different than the valley and SW CT. As much as we rib Kevin sometimes, his climate is way closer to ORH than HFD/BDL or anywhere southwest of there. But once the summer starts, he will use BDL again.
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Yes. But it’s prob not a very large area that would see icing. At least not how it looks now.
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Yeah it’s pretty solid considering basically zero falls D1-5 except an inch or two on the south coast. It’s mostly D5-15.
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EPS 5 day mean temp anomaly and total run snowfall. There will be chances.
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Solid warning event next weekend on GGEM for a lot of SNE. Gonna see a lot of solutions on this.
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Canadian might be good for weekend.
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Stein on both events.
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It wasn’t even really worth a response. That’s his schtick. Say something very negative but with extreme confidence.
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Yeah we need a pretty aggressive phase to get this north given how far east this is when phasing can occur. Pretty unlikely for most of us but south coast should def still watch this.
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Even in the tropics of SE MA this is kind of ridiculous to say on Feb 14th when the pattern doesn’t even look all that mild going forward.
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Not enough this run. Tickles the south coast. Maybe an inch or two for SW CT.
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NAM looks a lot more phased through 36h
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06z runs did look a bit colder again for late week. It’s like 00z all saw something to go warmer and then ticked it back a bit at 06z. Still need to wait and see on that.
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I wonder which obscure model will have the storm on the 00z runs. This is worse than the late January storm tease. At least that one had some huge OP euro solutions inside 100 hours.
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The funny part about @ineedsnow still tracking the 2/16 storm is that his location is probably one of the least likely to see anything from it in SNE. I love the dedication though.
