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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Well Euro was far less than GFS in central and western areas. It was only a little less in eastern areas this run. I hope the GFS is correct since it’s a widespread 3-5” deal but I’m still fairly skeptical. I think 1-3” would still be my forecast right now.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Euro looks like it juiced up a little for eastern areas tomorrow. It also tries to clip E MA coast with the IVT Christmas Eve.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Usually a good idea to toss outliers. GFS is just much juicier than most other guidance. If Euro juices up a decent amount then I'd probably be more intrigued.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Canadian is even more interesting
  5. ORH_wxman
    That's a big piled up train wreck in the Atlantic....that's what is causing all these systems to trend colder in the medium range.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Not buying GFS at all.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Euro isn't that far off from the NAM solutions either...Euro is slightly juicier but not by a lot. I'd still be going 1-3" for most of SNE. I'd need more proof this system has the juice before putting a 2" floor on the forecast.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Yeah and GFS has been pretty juicy as well.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Both 3k and 12k are pretty paltry for SNE tomorrow. Would be hard to go more than 1-2"....however, NAM has been on the more paltry side of guidance for several runs now, so TBD if it ends up trending juicier.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Yeah he’s been on tilt…we’ll get him back if he can muster a decent event this week whether it’s Tuesday or Friday. As for the lack of posts on Friday mentioned by others…it’s kind of hard to speak intelligently on that threat since it’s been moving hundreds of miles within a couple cycles. It would be nice to see some stabilization on guidance.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Your area might try and get a piece of the IVT. But IVTs are thought to forecast. Keep checking back tomorrow on that.
  12. ORH_wxman
    I’d keep it at 1-3” for most of SNE and adjust higher or lower if needed tomorrow. There’s a chance there could be a little sucker hole in the middle of SNE as the WAA dies out and the IVT gets going further northeast. We don’t know if that’s going to happen but if it does, there could be an area of 1” type totals. That’s why leave it at 1-3” for now.
  13. ORH_wxman
    EPS leaning slightly BN at the moment for New Years eve night.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Def could clip that area. That’s where most of the uncertainty is on this. We can quibble about 1.4” vs 3.5” over the interior but I don’t see any drastic changes.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Aside from outliers, this has basically been a 1-3/2-4 type event for much of interior SNE for a couple days now. There’s still some uncertainty on whether a little norlun/IVT can develop but my money would be downeast or mid-coast Maine for that. But it’s possible it could sneak down to north shore area too.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Def healthier than the previous couple runs.
  17. ORH_wxman
    I’m a little skeptical of BL warming that far into interior. 925 starts off pretty damned cold. Like -7ish. It does warm decently but that’s a lot of warming to happen in 6-8 hours to erode the sfc. Def vulnerable in the usual coastal plain spots where southerly flow hurts but up in your area and anywhere else deeper into interior I may hedge a little colder. Esp this time of year with really weak insolation.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Kind of surprising considering how warm it looked the last two days. Still not totally buying it, but this is clearly a very volatile look. I don’t trust anything out in LR right now given the weird exotic blocking we’ve been seeing showing from time to time.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Still no power. Almost 24 hours.
  20. ORH_wxman
    We take OP GFS
  21. ORH_wxman
    Fighting SE ridge but the big NAO and WPO blocking is an encouraging sign. If we have that heading toward New Years, I’d feel decent.
  22. ORH_wxman
    I think model data assimilation and initialization is still going to be a big limiting factor. So I’m not expecting anything crazy awesome in the next few years until that part of modeling is improved.
  23. ORH_wxman
    EPS is def at odds with OP run around 12/28.
  24. ORH_wxman
    The trend has definitely been warmer post-Xmas. I’d be surprised if we did anything wintry on 12/26….even 12/28 is looking tough. The one plus about today’s Euro run (out to 204 so far) is that it’s starting to go nuclear with both the Atlantic blocking and WPO blocking…so that wound set the stage for a pretty good look as we get closer to New Years. We’ll see how it looks as it keeps coming out.
  25. ORH_wxman
    This will be a constant theme I think….
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