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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Got some fatties falling now in this latest batch of decent echoes. Def means it’s marginal aloft...we know it’s not good snow growth.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Euro trying to go Xmas morning miracle with front end thump?
  3. ORH_wxman
    We kept about a 6 to 8 inch glacier where I was. But my area in northern ORH was much better at CAD than your area so maybe that was the difference.
  4. ORH_wxman
    The 2000s were a bit better at least in ORH. We managed white Christmas in 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007, 2008, and 2009....with a near miss in 2003. Had patches leftover in that one from yet another brutal grinch storm. If you had a sheltered yard you may have managed an official white Christmas in 2003.
  5. ORH_wxman
    BOS was white in 1995 and 1997 in the 1990s. They just missed 1998. Off to the west, ORH had a white Xmas those two years in addition to 1991, 1992, and 1993. We had all of of our Jim Cantore snow in 1996 wiped out by an epic Grinch storm on Xmas Eve. That one hurt. I was sure we were a lock.
  6. ORH_wxman
    We had light sleet on and off much of the morning but it just flipped to mostly snow with these better echoes.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Yeah the NAM is still showing that IVT with moisture trapped below 800mb. Maybe some light snow or snizzle late overnight or early tomorrow. Def gonna have to watch for some black ice or a little glaze too.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Some bright banding on radar down by you. Not surprising a few mangled aggregates might be mixed in.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Too bad it’s the 84h NAM but that is kind of interesting looking for middle of next week. You can see how the northern stream is really digging and likely to at least partially phase with the southern stream. That is the type of look you’ll want to see on the useful models if that system is to have any chance.
  10. ORH_wxman
    This one is fugly. Look at this precip shield. But this is what you get when it’s a sheared vortmax going through Ottawa.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Yeah +250dm anomaly on a 15 day mean. That’s the type of stuff we used to see in the 2010 blocking days.
  12. ORH_wxman
    D10-15 mean pushes that PNA height anomaly a bit east/inland and that NAO block is in an ideal location.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Is Kevin getting a burst of snow? Looks like that precip is snow on CC. Or he’s right near the line.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Pattern looks amazing on the EPS going forward regardless of any potential grinch on Xmas. I’m pretty confident we will cash in at some point on that look.
  15. ORH_wxman
  16. ORH_wxman
    When he does the swan dive off the building.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Ray just pulled a Bill Murray in Groundhog Day.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Bit of an IVT as it exits with moisture trapped below 800mb....so yeah, might be some snizzle or even some light snow for a time early Sunday morning. It's only like -5C...so questionable how much snow there is, but prob a lot of salt nuclei in that given it's in the low levels and -5C is prob cold enough with lots of salt nuclei.
  19. ORH_wxman
    18z NAM looked slightly less offensive with the warm nose aloft down here in the early going...so it actually gives us an inch or two versus very little on the 12z run. However, the 3km wasn't interested in throwing us that bone.
  20. ORH_wxman
  21. ORH_wxman
    It’s good for holding in a semi-permanent 50/50 feature. You can see where that low height anomaly is now just E of new Foundland. It becomes pretty hostile for cutters.
  22. ORH_wxman
    The NAO block is in a better spot than a few days ago. That west-based look with a -PNA is really good for us usually.
  23. ORH_wxman
    The primary is in Lake Superior at 216 hours....lol. But the block forces a secondary to develop off NJ.
  24. ORH_wxman
    This entire pattern is going to be difficult on model guidance because of the -PNA firehose running into the NAO block....at any time, one of the fragments of energy ejected from the western trough could become a player, but the model guidance can't really tell which one it is this far out. That's not even counting how model guidance handles the block itself...nuances in the orientation of the block can have large sensible wx effects.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Euro has a weak impulse in the flow that tries to give a little light snow overnight Xmas eve into Xmas morning, but it's just a shade dry. More like snow showers. But again, those things are not going to be modeled well, so worth watching if it can turn into something bigger.
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