ORH_wxman

Yeah he was talking about the temp drift which we mentioned a couple pages back. I was commenting how ORH was 33F but all the mesonets were 31F...the ice sensor plus the pictures from here basically prove that the temp sensor is junk right now.

Yeah it wasn’t 32-33F that whole time.

Up on winter hill today and everything is iced over. Even 100-200 feet lower had nothing.

That storm was brutal for me. We had about 7” of sand where I was in ORH but my current location just to the east had about 16”. That mesoband you see in the last radar image posted by 4 seasons just rotted and I was smoking exhaust to the west. I did get in on it initially which literally dropped like 3” of snow in 90 minutes but then it slid east quickly and rotted. That’s why my current place had so much more. I guess I can’t complain too much though...the day after the storm I had to drive to Springfield MA and they had almost nothing...just a dusting. They basically got shutout. The snow dropped off really quickly about 10-20 miles west of ORH.

Could be very similar actually. But at least this one has a more realistic chance of trending south and colder because you have an active retrograde of the NAO block occurring.

Yeah best cold is east. Though there is definitely something up with ORH temps...running warm for a while now. There’s about a 0% chance they are actually 33F

Xmas is still somewhat interesting. Wish we had a stronger push of cold but at least there NAO block is actively retrograding while that system approaches so there’s room for models to correct better on that one unlike the previous system. Not holding out a lot of hope but not tossing yet. And while no OP model shows this right now, I noticed that several ensemble members on both EPS and GEFS eject some energy for 12/24 so a few of them had something for that day instead. The flip side of the equation is that if the NAO block doesn’t press down as much, we could still have flamingos and parrots for Xmas.

Pants tent pattern on both EPS/GEfS post-Xmas.

There’s at least a pretty strong established NAO block though. So I have a little more hope for that one to end up colder/south than this one did. We could smell the north trend on the 12/18 system coming from days away. Limiting factor is we don’t have an exceptional antecedent airmass but it’s better than this past system. One thing to root for is that northern stream piece of energy that we were hoping would phase for the 12/22 system...root for that to be as far south as possible even though the 12/22 system is toast. By doing that, it will shove the arctic cold further south and set the stage for something interesting on Xmas.

Your area may be the jack. Powderfreak commented on the BL flow helping out there being out of the east.

Yeah dual pol shows the line lifting just north of ASH now. You prob have sleet outside though if the line is that close.

They’ll be parties for hosting And chicken legs for roasting And caroling out in the snow

Hopefully you can grab a couple. That should last until Xmas since it’s dense. You crack an inch yet?

Yep. Don’t get me wrong...I’d love to even get 2-3” so the peeps up north are lucky in my book. But this was pretty hideous.

Sheared vortmax through Ottawa...I should’ve been even more pessimistic but I got too wrapped up in the models 2 days ago when they were trending colder and looked like a decent shot of lift on the front end. If that was tracking through PA or even souther tier of NY and not a sheared mess, that would have been a different ballgame. This kind of reminds me of that MLK weekend event in January 2020....we had a much better antecedent airmass so we stayed all snow but the upper energy was a sheared disaster displaces NW so it was like 3-5” of sand and garbage rates with a shredded radar.

ALB to rt 2 in MA corridor basically got shutout in this event. Worse than I thought even in the bad scenarios...garbage system. Aesthetically this even looks putrid too on radar. What an ugly system.

Agreed. We need that to dig more in order to have any chance of hooking that southern stream northward.

Coating was the final here. Mostly rain with some sleet mixed in.

I would agree. Not saying KU type system or anything, but at least something plowable. It would be hard to keep whiffing in the post-Xmas pattern.

Back to mostly sleet with a few mangled flakes.

Okay maybe spoke too soon. Back to mostly snow now.

EPS continuing to push that Aleutian ridge eastward.

Gone over to pure sleet here. Previously it was oscillating depending on intensity. Now it’s just sleet despite good echoes overhead so the snow is done here.

Yeah but both of our star WRs are out and both starting tackles and we’re facing the best pass rusher in the league...and it’s 4th and 10 not 4th and 1. Screw it, draw up a play that moves the chains.

Yeah the Euro pins a decent PV lobe this run south of the block. There is room for that to get better for sure...wouldn’t take much at all to turn that pretty good. I haven’t quite punted 12/22 yet either but I’m close. That euro run trended enough to keep me interested for another cycle...but I’ll prob punt if 00z isn’t better.