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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    This is actually kind of fun looking at each run....I honestly have no idea how they will go. That's how volatile the pattern is right now. I feel like one these will work out....just don't know which one.
  2. ORH_wxman
    GFS still liking that little nuke for the 26th.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Yeah he overplayed that one badly. Comes off as a really desperate troll attempt...didn't flow naturally at all. I mean, at least wait for a real model...maybe the GFS.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Models are going to be all over the place until more of this trainwreck out west is resolved. But at least there are several interesting shortwaves to track.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Guidance is all over the place with this weekend. Though for Xmas day itself we’ve seen some narrowing. Even euro gets some measurable snow into SNE now for Xmas.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Yeah ORH hasn’t reported snow depth since the 1994-1995 winter. By my records, ORH has had a white Xmas in the following years post-1950: 1951, 1952, 1954, 1956, 1958, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1972, 1974, 1975, 1978, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983, 1985, 1989, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1995, 1997, 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2016, 2017, 2019 So that’s 42 out of 70 or 60%.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Oh Canada…nice little Xmas Eve burst and then Xmas Day again on the GGEM…not as prolific as the ICON but it’s several inches for a good chunk of SNE.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Look at the H5 map on Xmas Eve and Xmas. That is ridiculous looking. There’s like 6 clusters of energy…more like buckshot. Even that solution though gives a bit of front ender snow for Xmas…looks best west and it kind of fizzles a little bit as it heads east.
  9. ORH_wxman
    GFS actually crunches Xmas Eve south a bit. South of pike special.
  10. ORH_wxman
    We’re holding you to that.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Actually gets us both days. Xmas Eve and Xmas day. Rgem looked like a little bit of festivus on Xmas Eve too.
  12. ORH_wxman
    A few winters ago Alpine Meadows had over 800 inches.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Look at the difference in California at 84 or 90h on the 18z run compared to 12z....that is LOL. You don't typically see the Euro make jumps like that.
  14. ORH_wxman
    18z GFS was pretty nice for SNE on Xmas Eve. Nice stripe of 1-2”...prob some lollis to 3” in there with QPF approaching a quarter inch in spots...esp from NE CT over to SE MA. Would like to see Euro start getting on board though.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Leon? That's almost a Jan '94 look for early to mid January on the weeklies with the NAO going positive, but the PV settling down into Hudson Bay and a big AK ridge. Hopefully it has the right idea.
  16. ORH_wxman
    18z NAM not as amped as 12z for Wednesday.
  17. ORH_wxman
    If it does, that would likely bode well for late January and into February. I'm always a fan of bucking February La Nina climo.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Euro is basically splitting the 50mb PV....will be interesting to see if it actually splits or just stays really elongated....it doesn't really matter in the medium range....being stretched like that is going to be exceptionally favorable for blocking....but longer term it will matter on the longevity....if it splits apart, it will take longer to re-consolidate.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Yeah tickled south some...even the mean snow algorithm has N ORH county into the 2" range now. Not that I put much stock into snow algorithms, but having that increase a bit shows the colder solutions becoming a little more numerous.
  20. ORH_wxman
    I had 0.1" in Dec 2018, but we had two events in November 2018 including a warning criteria event (that gave us a white T-day)
  21. ORH_wxman
    2015-2016 was the last winter where I didn't get at least an advisory level snowfall prior to New Years...you'd have to go back to 2006-2007 for the next one. So it obviously happens, but it's fairly rare. Especially inland. Right on the coast it's a bit more common. Both of those years I mentioned were El Ninos too. You'd have to go back to 1999-2000 to find one in a neutral or La Nina.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Check out the difference in the Xmas Eve shortwave on Euro vs GFS....this is only an 84 hour prog. Euro on top and GFS below
  23. ORH_wxman
    24th could give a couple inches if the energy ejected is a little stronger ala GFS (lesser extent the GGEM)....Euro and Ukie are pretty weak with it...not a good kink in the isoheights. The stronger the shortwave on the 24th, the colder Xmas will be too because it lowers the heights behind it a bit.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Airmass is decent for 12/24....but questionable for 12/25. IF 12/24 comes in south, that also helps for 12/25. There's several moving parts...12/22 affects these too. Euro run is south of 00z for 12/25 but still too far north for most of SNE.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Def gonna be south of 00z for Xmas though as Scooter said...
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