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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    You are actually in a decent spot for later tonight and early tomorrow.
  2. ORH_wxman
    18z euro juiced Xmas Eve a tad more. Really south of the pike where it has a nice little stripe of 1-2”.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I’m completely tossing it until anything else agrees even remotely.
  4. ORH_wxman
    That system was a lot different BTW...it was really strong WAA push. This one is really a weak clipper.
  5. ORH_wxman
    You might be thinking of 2005...that one happened pre-dawn Tday and ended early/mid morning.
  6. ORH_wxman
    EPS finally beat down the SE ridge a bit by first week of Jan. Should be a little more accommodating to coastal systems/Miller Bs with that look....don't confuse it with an El Nino or anything, because the SE ridge is still there, it's just much weaker and that would allow us to redevelop a few of these systems and also lessen the shredding.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Yeah in eastern areas, it might not get above 35 or so....depending on when the skies clear out. Some guidance kept it below freezing, but even the Euro had like 33-34F at 18z over most of eastern SNE...SW CT got into the low 40s though.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Yeah and they will...they are both at extreme levels over the next 7 days.
  9. ORH_wxman
    We'd probably have a week of 65F and tropical downpours with parakeets arriving at bird feeders if we didn't have that monster block...that western trough is very deep. Tip is right that the block is also shredding shortwaves, but if they weren't, they'd be serving us Pina Coladas on the express tropical jet from Havana Cuba.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Euro throwing us a bone as the ball drops.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I'd prob barely track it if it wasn't Xmas Eve...and this does have a little bit of upside, because unlike the systems after it, it's not getting shredded to total crap. The shortwave maintains a little bit of integrity. So yeah while C-1" is probably the most common result....there's a legit shot at 2-3" too.
  12. ORH_wxman
    I mean, people on here track dewpoints all summer and others track 50F temps in winter....2" of snow on Xmas eve sounds like the World Series in comparison. Nobody is forcing anyone else to track these systems.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Yeah further west would have actually been a little better...like over Hudson Bay and even into central Canada, but that is hard to do because it already becomes very west-based by Xmas....something further west is usually from a folded-over PNA ridge or something and not an NAO block.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Yeah we are all risking a lot of valuables hoping for an inch or two on Xmas Eve. Hopefully I have enough leftover for presents for the kiddies.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Euro tries to get the 27th system into here before it gets shredded.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Dry.
  17. ORH_wxman
    It was almost identical to 06z....still on the dry side of guidance but prob widespread 0.5-1" amounts.
  18. ORH_wxman
    No, most guidance doesn't have much of anything except the Ukie. Maybe a little ZR or light snow early AM?
  19. ORH_wxman
    Ukie is also decent for 12/24....prob 1-3" over most of SNE. A little on the juicy side but not that out of step with 12z models so far. Where it is out of step is 12/25....it has solid advisory snows for a good chunk of CT on Xmas morning...like a solid 2-4". Lighter amounts into MA/S NH/S VT.
  20. ORH_wxman
    No ZR in PWM? Airport is reporting 31F and FZRA....after 29F last hour.
  21. ORH_wxman
    GGEM is decent for 12/24...looks like a nice stripe of 1-2" with maybe 3" lollis. Then it mostly squashes 12/25-12/26...but tries to get 12/27 into parts of the region with a bit of snow. Then it tries to get another system in here 12/28 with ZR/IP. This train of shortwaves starting Xmas is a total mess on guidance. Chevy Chase advent calendar.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Prob see some 2" amounts with 0,15" LE in spots on that run. Ratios should be better than 10 to 1...esp away from immediate south coast where it's really cold.
  23. ORH_wxman
    12k is prob too juiced, but sometimes these do produce if they can tap a little bit of low level atlantic moisture. RGEM is more subdued as well ,but not as shredded as 3k NAM....RGEM looks like mostly an inch or so with maybe a spot 2" amount. Also has the heaviest down in CT while NAM is further north.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Yes.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it's definitely slow to shut off over your area out east. Getting the sfc low going helps tuck in that colder sfc air....never makes it above freezing in many spots.
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