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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Yeah and I’ve seen it before in a lot of smaller dinky events but in the 2008 event it happened when there was 3” of QPF so it made it that much more noticeable. Like Leominster at 300 feet had catastrophic ice but then if you went to Orange MA on that other side of the spine on route 2 it was almost nothing despite Orange actually being a couple hundred feet higher.
  2. ORH_wxman
    My best educated guess was that the terrain blocked some of the dewpoint advection and it also likely had a mild warming effect of downsloping (and the east side had the opposite effect of mild upslope cooling). In a marginal temp profile, stuff like that will matter more than usual.
  3. ORH_wxman
    There was also a little bit of terrain effects in that storm too. The west Side of ORH hills had drastically less ice at the same elevation as the eastern side that was catastrophic accretion.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Ha we both mentioned 2008 at the same time…nice. Obviously the storm was huge but it was a greaT case study on the different variables working.
  5. ORH_wxman
    The 2008 storm was cool because it had offsetting factors working which kind of made the forecast a really tough call. On one hand, you had marginal temps barely below freezing and very heavy QPF (I should really say rates instead of QPF)….those would limit ice accretion. But on the other hand, you had like a 15-20 knot wind out of the NE…advecting in upper 20s dewpoints the whole time into N MA and down to about ORH.
  6. ORH_wxman
    A limiting factor in efficient ice accretion in this event is that 950mb temps are really warm. Tip mentioned this a couple pages back but that is important because you are going to have warm raindrops pretty close to the surface so they have less time to become supercooled. In many of our nasty icing events, you’ll see 950 temps below 0C and the freezing line is closer to 900-925.
  7. ORH_wxman
    It varies based on several factors but a rough general rule is that 70% will freeze on flat surfaces and then roughly 40% of THAT will accrete radially…which comes out to about 30% of the QPF. So in an example where half inch of QPF falls as ice, you may get about 3/8ths inch on flat surface and 1/6th radial accretion.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Great post….awesome animations in the pattern there. That pattern at the end would certainly be more conductive to coastal storms as well even though the overrunners and redevelopers are still likely favored. At least the meat grinder relaxes a bit. The really strong block in the Chukchi Sea has my attention too. In the past, we’ve seen some really extreme cold outbreaks into the northern tier when a block develops there.
  9. ORH_wxman
    He might need this instead:
  10. ORH_wxman
    I’d watch the Jan 2-4 period for now.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Even the coldest guidance i think had a high around 28ish at ORH. That ended up being the high near BOS and the ORH Asos has been running warm too
  12. ORH_wxman
    Yeah that could be nasty for quite a while. Esp interior hills in ORH county into S NH. Flow is pretty light so prob many areas will latently warm to like 32.5F by mid afternoon but if even a weak barrier jet gets going then that could end up as 30F right into evening. The mesolow threat is kind of high so something to watch.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Finished with just under an inch at winter hill
  14. ORH_wxman
    Cold day. ORH at 22F at lunchtime.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Brutal my friend. Even a half inch to an inch looks quite festive. Hopefully some redemption by New Years.
  16. ORH_wxman
    TF Green prob getting smacked there just south of Providence.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Solid
  18. ORH_wxman
    He’s not losing that tomorrow. Even when the ZR changes to showers later on it’s like mid 30s.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it’s not going anywhere there. Prob icy tomorrow AM too.
  20. ORH_wxman
    No I’m in Holliston. Visiting family today though and then heading to NJ where it will be brown and mild.
  21. ORH_wxman
    A little over a half inch so far on winter hill. Not sure if a little more can come through but looks festive
  22. ORH_wxman
    Nice burst now. “Heaviest” of the event.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Of course my boys had to go outside at 630am despite just a coating
  24. ORH_wxman
    Kevin will break 2” with that band.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Flakes picking up a bit…hopefully this bursT to the west gives a bit more. We have a coating right now. Congrats on the white Xmas for the CT folks.
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