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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    EPS actually pops a positive PNA (or close enough in terms of sensible wx pattern) in the 11-15….not buying it yet but that would be a welcome change. Esp since the NAO blocking is going away.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Euro is going full on Rainer into southern Canada. But where you are, I’d definitely still watch it for a colder solution in the next few days. We’re prob toast down here.
  3. ORH_wxman
    The 3rd low looks a bit like a fraud….maybe it’ll work out but imho the best chance is to trend the one before it into a classic overrunning/SWFE.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Alright enough of the bickering…I just deleted a bunch of junk.
  5. ORH_wxman
    The deeper PNA trough also caused the more amplified ridge into the south-central US (like TX/OK up into the lower MS valley) and that helped shred systems…if a few of these shortwaves stay slightly less shredded, you prob get a couple of warning events out of it.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Yeah the best match for the pattern in the second half of this month was Dec 1970….but nuances such as a slightly deeper PNA trough out west make a big difference. You can tell though just by looking at the pattern how it wouldn’t have taken much of a tweak to get a bunch of solid events.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Annual tradition around here…canceling winter in December. We’ve even had people doing it when December was decent (like last year)…lol.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Guidance could change too. It’s assuming we get a big cutter in there and that doesn’t always happen…esp in strong -WPO/EPO block that is going right into the North Pole…you can sometimes end up CADing the system. I know everyone is assuming the warm trend wins out because we’ve been getting mostly skunked but just as often you may see a trend of lowering heights in Quebec too.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Funny how their previous record December snowfall there in Tahoe was December 1970. Too bad we didn’t get that month back here.
  10. ORH_wxman
    That blizzard comment was just for him.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Yep. Maybe we can get a nice period like Jan 94 or late Dec 08 through mid Jan 09. Can get some Miller Bs in that pattern too but a little harder…nobody should have visions of monster blizzards dancing in their head.
  12. ORH_wxman
    They’ve done pretty well in the arctic but they definitely underestimated the PNA trough out west.
  13. ORH_wxman
    I think it looks quite good. Obviously we need it to verify…but I’m totally fine with that pattern. Big ridging in the Bering strait with weak SE ridging is actually pretty classic for active/snowy pattern in New England. It is cold too.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Here’s the progression…this is still pretty classic La Niña but at least we’re not digging the trough into palm trees down in Cabo San Lucas
  15. ORH_wxman
    Weeklies are pretty chilly for January. Hopefully we can start playing catch-up in the snow department.
  16. ORH_wxman
    ORH had about an inch of snow/ice OTG until yesterday.
  17. ORH_wxman
    It’s prob fairly close but I’ll bet “pit2” averages a bit more. But they can get skunked sometimes being right on the water in the wrong type of pattern…that’s why it’s close to begin with and once you go a few miles inland in Maine it increases rapidly….in a latitude gradient pattern they will do much better regardless.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it looked like maybe an inch…2 if lucky.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Yeah this initial stuff shreds as it heads into tri-state region but overnight another pulse looks like it will survive a bit better. Still nothing big but a couple inches wouldn’t be shocking.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Yeah GFS is on board for overnight as well.
  21. ORH_wxman
    RGEM also has an inch or two overnight.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Yeah his area for sure, but isn’t SNE which I referencing in the original post. The Dec 17th storm down here was not like that. We all got roughly in the 12-18” range. A big storm for sure but not like 40-50% of the seasonal total for most.
  23. ORH_wxman
    The NAM runs this morning are giving a bit more snow tonight. 2-3” for a good chunk of SNE on the 12km….3km is more like 1-2”.
  24. ORH_wxman
    You can say that about a lot of winters though. Taking away the largest snowfall in a region where part of the snowfall climo is large synoptic storms will obviously make it look worse. How does ‘68-69 look when we take away the late Feb ‘69 storm or 2012-2013 look when we take away the Feb blizzard?
  25. ORH_wxman
    Well this is the pattern to get that started. Best snows in the type of pattern forecasted over the next 10-15 days will be those with some latitude.
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