ORH_wxman

Yeah RGEM went zonkers.

No argument 12z looked better. My gut still says this comes back some though.

It came in shallower angle like Tip mentioned. It does go negative with the trough sooner but the trough itself isn't quite as deep. But the overall look is pretty nice....you have the vort curling up from the Delmarva into LI and then the Cape....that is a classic scenario for midlevel goodies over SNE.

Regardless of any actual trends in the height field or vortmax, I do think the storm circulation will end up tucked a bit closer to the max PVA than some of these runs show. If you get your conveyor all mucked up chasing convection, then you'll have some uglier looking solutions that may or may not be model phantoms. Sometimes the convection is correct...but I'd be leery of it, especially on hyrdostatic model guidance. That said, there are multiple other factors such as the heights in SE Canada which are important for ridging downstream of the shortwave and of course, the shortwave itself. Then you have the western ridge too as Tip and Chris have already discussed a few times.

Still a good spread even at 72h....clearly a decent cluster still west of the BM.

Yeah you want to see that ridging poking further north into Quebec, but in my experience, model guidance tends to underestimate the ultimate strength of these consolidated vortmaxes and associated amplification. Maybe it doesn't happen this time, but I'd be somewhat surprised if we don't start seeing a bit of a shift back west all else equal. If we get more confluence up north, then obviously that would offset a stronger vortmax.

It won;t melt if there's a decent warning criteria storm...if we only get 2-3" of blower fluff, then yeah, it might.

Single digit highs for 1/11 on Euro in SNE....below 0F in NNE. Cold stuff....not since Jan 2019.

It's pretty damned potent vortmax. Unless it weakens a decent amount, my guess is future guidance starts reacting to it by tucking this thing closer to the PVA.

Maybe it's just me, but I kind of like this look...

Prob a modest tickle east...though it wouldn't surprise me if it basically held serve since it was already a little bit east.

Yeah I'm still thinking this comes back west some...they usually do when you have that nice consolidated vort energy near base of trough and when there's some sfc reflection chasing convection. We actually saw this somewhat in the 12/17/20 storm last winter. We're obviously dealing with an eastward trend this 12z cycle, but there's still plenty of cycles left.

GGEM is a bit crunched...kind of like GFS.

The western crowd had some good storms in the 1990s and early 2000s....they can wait another decade before the worm turns.

Yeah it is not digging as much as 06z was over the plains.

Yeah I was looking at H5 first on Reggie and was thinking that would be more tucked...it hammers SE MA pretty good, but my guess is that would be better further west than it actually shows.

That run looked pretty damned good for western SNE....they get some goodies on that.

I like how the vort is pretty consolidated at the base of the shortwave on this one....that makes it harder to lose this to the east.

Goes over ACK this run. That would be a crusher for a lot of SNE and prob into CNE.

Not a big surprise but the NAM won't come in as amped as 06z was looking at 48 hours.

Ensemble-based analogs are pretty tasty....Jan 2005, Jan 2009, Jan 2003, Jan 1994, Jan 1961 are all showing up as analogs as we get out into days 8-12. Hopefully that sticks. I agree with Scott that it looks like -PNA is trying to return near month-end, but we'll see. If a really good AK ridge gets established, then it might keep the PNA more near neutral late month and into early February which would be ideal.

Yeah the surface is kind of meh...not one of those systems where it's 7F at ORH when it starts, but that doesn't matter because it's plenty cold off the deck. Type of system where it might start near the coast around freezing but then it drops to like 27-28 as the storm gets cranking. Interior is prob mostly in the 20s.

Looks like a predawn to mid afternoon Friday deal.

Yeah it kind of takes a wide-ish turn and then bombs rapidly, so when that happens, you can actually get it pretty close and still stay snow...plus antecedent airmass is strong. You'd prob need a canal cutter to mix 95 in this setup.

This is coming back west at least somewhat IMHO. I don't know if it will be an actual hugger, but I'd favor something inside the BM.