ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Yes true....though I definitely thought we'd be battling more of a hugger 2 days ago...just based on the position of the trough as it goes neutral/neg pretty decently far west. But the confluence up north has fought that off pretty good. Still, I think that fairly far west trough positioning and potent vortmax can work in our favor now as we get into the final 48 hours.
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Yeah i agree it looks like the "Worry east" crowd are right...but this is different from actually punting this event. There's nearly 2 days left and small changes can easily bring this pretty far west in terms of sensible wx....you have a VERY potent vortmax rounding the base of a well-placed shortwave. Some nuances in the downstream ridging and convective-robbing conveyors are preventing a major storm, but it's not hard to see how those nuances trend better.
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I don't see a reason to forecast 2-3" here right now. Maybe well northwest closer to your hood is mostly out of the heavy snow but further east should not be punting this event. I still think even pretty far NW could get a decent band when looking aloft.
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Why are people basically doing postmortems 42-48 hours before the event where small differences could mean the difference between 2-3" and 6-10"?
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Yeah we're talking very minor changes in the end...it did make a late bid to tick west, but really not of much consequence. It still wants to follow the convection...we really need that vort to curl north and capture this thing....close to what some of the mesos are doing.
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Might be making up some ground at 39 hours....looks like the low is not hugging the convection as much this run....we'll see in next frame.
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12z GFS looks to be ticking slightly less amped than 6z through 30 hours.
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Was there anyone who was saying I-95 was definitely going to mix?
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There's isn't really very strong deformation in this setup...but there is definitely a banding signal for well northwest of the lower level reflection....so a fluff band in a separate stripe well northwest of the main jackpot area is likely IMHO. It won't be huge totals, but I wouldn't be shocked at one of those 6"+ deals inside the band where it drops 0.30" qpf.
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Some of the guidance is trying to curl the storm almost due north very briefly (maybe 3-4 hours) when it gets about due east of ACK. That would have to be watched for prolonging the moderate/heavy snow for eastern areas on Friday morning. It's probably the strong vort trying to capture the sfc reflection back west from the convection.
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It's definitely a smidge east with the best goods....but yeah we're parsing really tiny differences. It's definitely has had the lowest run to run variance of any model in the past 24 hours.
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There's definitely still more spread in guidance (and ensembles) than usual for 2 days out.
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3k def looks better than the 12k....though the 12z 3k did trend a little east of 06z, but not nearly as much as the 12k did.
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Yeah this run is not gonna get it done for a big event...this would be an advisory event for eastern areas I think.
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122z NAM looks like it will be more subdued than 06z....spacing between the two shortwaves is less through 24h.
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Put your obs for today in here https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/56475-january-2022-obsdisco/page/60/#comments This thread should be for 1/7
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LOL. I feel like we need a therapy thread…
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Nice tick west on 06z euro. The shortwave definitely has been looking nice on the 06z runs. Hopefully that Carries into the 12z suite.
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Glad I went to bed early last night…I just got caught up reading like 3 pages melting down about the 00z NAM. Some of you need to go back to spring training…lol. Luke wins the prize for best prediction by saying the the 06z NAM would come in zonked. Looking at other guidance, I really like the strength of the shortwave. The 06z suite is coming in strong with it. Hopefully euro follows in a bit.
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I still wake up with a cold sweat with nightmares of 2/24/89 in my head.
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Jan 2019 was pretty impressive. ORH had a high of 1F. Had to go back to 1994 to get that. Even Jan 2004 didn’t beat that.
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You could see the better spacing in the shortwaves early on. Downstream ridging was a bit better.
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Here's H5 on the RGEM....you can see how nicely the vort is curling up into ACY area (and eventually LI) and it's tight enough that there's good downstream ridging....it's a bit more efficient in that department than the 18z NAM which is why the RGEM was a big hit and the NAM was more of a moderate event.
