ORH_wxman

I'll add that H85 is 850mb....it's not someone fat-fingering H5 (usually, lol)

We take...

It's a marginal watch....though for SE MA, it's probably close. You only need 50% confidence of 6" for a watch and they are probably pretty close to that in SE MA. I'd prob wait until tonight personally, but given that there hasn't been any real snow yet this winter and that it will fall during Friday rush hour there, I can see hedging slightly more aggressive.

2000s/2010s for sure....but he's not wrong about the clown maps. The clown maps are cringe....admittedly fun to look at, but they shouldn't be used beyond entertainment unless you know they are actually representative of the system (which most will not know).

The EPS still have a westward skew, but the variance is getting pretty tight now.

Clown range Euro is cooking up a monster....clown range as it is, but ensembles have also been hinting at that mid-month period for something bigger.

I think those probs are too low in eastern areas. Like I think SE MA def has more than a 10% chance of 8"....maybe not WAY more, but I'd prob put the chances more like 25-30% there. It will prob only take about a half inch to 6 tenths of QPF to get 8" there and there are several pieces of guidance that give that.

It looks more like N ATL ridging rather than true blocking....though there's some hints of it trying to form a block in Greenland/Davis Strait, but even N ATL ridging can be useful. The GEFS are definitely more bullish on any of that getting back into Greenland/Davis strait than the EPS. The EPS was more just straight N ATL ridging.

Usually I like to compare to the last cycle....but this system definitely has some weird off-hour/on hour tango dance going on.

This definitely looks like some midlevel goodies...most of us are obviously still rooting for the 0.75-1.00 QPF slamming on Atlantic inflow, but aside from that, it's probably going to be nice snow growth in the ML banding that is consistently being signaled over SNE. Even like a 13 or 14 to 1 ratio will give 4" on a quarter inch qpf...and it's possible ratios are a bit higher inside a decent band.

He has to stay on brand...just slice off a couple inches.

Actually you posted 06z vs 12z....i was talking 00z vs 12z. 06z was definitely better than 12z.

Try 10 to 1 maps....Kuchie be messing with the ratios....the QPF is almost identical to 00z except a bit more up north and far west.

The QPF map ends up looking almost identical to 00z in the end...maybe a little better out west and up north than 00z.

Looks just a ahir less amped than 06z at 36 hours...but more amped than 00z.

The extreme magnitude of the RNA trough definitely mucked up some forecasts....even medium range forecasts, not just long range. Honestly, we had a legit good NAO block so even a slightly less deep RNA trough probably nets us a lot more cold and snow in December. But that's how the dice fall sometimes. The change in the PAC is pretty fortunate timing since we have lost the NAO blocking for the time being....we're going to be living off the Pacific. Some of the guidance hints at -NAO trying to come back later in the month but I'm not biting on that yet. My guess is any big NAO block would likely wait until later in the winter to return.

In our local news and growing up, the state is almost always divided as western/central/eastern, so that's how most of us view it. But if you are just using a very crude analysis for a storm, you can use east vs west sometimes.

Yeah if we're dividing into halves....I agree I just use ORH roughly as the midpoint (I think technically it's Rutland MA if you go by precise geography....and that's just 2 towns NW of ORH for those that don't know)...but if we divide into thirds with western/central/eastern....then I use 495 for the eastern boundary.

There's probably going to be some really good arctic outbreaks too in this pattern. The phased PNA/EPO ridge is a classic arctic outbreak signal for our area. It tends to push the PV more toward eastern Canada.

I kind of loosely consider it 495-eastward....but it's a subjective term.

Yeah at least there is good agreement on a good pattern for most of this month....but I'm hoping the GEFS are more correct because they are a Ron Burgundy pants tent rather than merely a good pattern.

You can throw the 12z Ukie in there too.

Ukie is actually pretty nice for E MA...BOS def would get warning criteria snowfall on that run.

No doubt it is in peril...but it seems way too close a call to punt the idea at 48 hours. It would be too close a call to punt at 24 hours IMHO.

I think 6-12 is still possible for eastern areas for sure.