ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Yep this is def NW of 18z
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Looks a bit more amped by 30h. I’m doing this on my phone tonight though so it’s not easy to toggle.
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We edible. 00z NAM looks like slightly lower heights over us through 18h but the vortmax is definitely stronger so we’ll see what happens later on.
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Yeah a little bit of that is the rain from this afternoon.
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Yeah when you look at soundings, there’s a fairly deep area of lift and it goes into the SGZ…even the ugly solutions have that weenie band early in the storm…I think worst case scenario is prob 2-3” of blower fluff there. But there’s def some upside for higher amounts.
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Prob snows until dark there.
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Yeah sfc temps are almost always a struggle there but even in this one I doubt they’ll be a huge deal. It’s probably be pasty snow there at least for the first half of the storm but it’s plenty cold just off the deck so no real ptype issues.
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That was a nice move. Usually don’t see much more than that on the euro.
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Deeper into interior is a tougher call. I do think at least advisory snows are likely due to the weenie banding early in the event…but I’m not sure about later on. My gut is this ticks closer in near the vort and everyone ends up getting more than currently shown, but we’ll see. It’s a hard forecast…if I was forecasting for my old clients in ORH county and Union CT then I’d prob be saying 3-5” but telling them to look for updates as there is more uncertainty than usual with higher amounts possible.
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I remember that well. The pattern looked so good that I figured BOS would clean up for a few weeks. I had no idea it would be that prolific…lol. I don’t think anyone knew…what a 3 week period that was. Crazy.
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You’re in a good spot for this one.
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18z gfs was a good start to trying to get rid of the eastern outliers. That looked better aloft too.
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We both feel that way because we're looking at a concentrated ball of strong vorticity rounding the base of that shortwave and then curling into E LI and the Cape. The stronger solution honestly makes meteorological sense...but we know convection-robbing of conveyors can be real, but we just don't when it is and when it's a model phantom.
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The mid-levels have been lackluster compared to H5....if we increase the inflow just slightly, this will light up the QPF maps on model guidance....you can see it on the 3k somewhat.
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Yeah the weenie band is prob like 06z to 10z or something and then things start collapsing SE quickly....the key for bigger snows out east is when that happens, do we see a potent little stinger develop and slowly push offshore giving 1-2" per hour for several hours?
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It was still probably marginal warning snow over far eastern MA and SE MA....but it def was a little worse than 12z. It seems like we're starting to converge somewhat. I'd like to see a tickle west on GFS and Euro though to be more confident of warning snows in eastern MA/RI.
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https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html
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18z RGEM is ticking east
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That's a hell of a stinger to end the event over eastern areas on the 3k...that would be a fun morning rush hour.
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Yeah 00z tonight is kind of the big showdown...should get another good sample of the shortwave on the KTFK and KRIW launch sites too.
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Better than 12z....now that is what we want to see.
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Yeah it's trying, biut not quite enough this run to deliver the real goodies....still a better look at least than 12z. Most of my hope in this system is due to the strong vortmax....that as we get closer and closer, the model guidance will be focusing more of the forcing along the track of that vortmax and not to the east.
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It's def better than 12z by 39 hours...the stronger vortmax is offsetting the earlier trend of lower heights over us. It's pulling the system back in closer to the shortwave.
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The vortmax is actually a bit more potent this run, so its going to try and gain back here late in the game.
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Might be some bridge-jumping this run....it looks even flatter than the clunker 12z solution.
