ORH_wxman

18z euro still really driving that N stream down. Produces a general light snow over New England. Best is N of pike and into NNE but everyone sees something. But N of pike is maybe 1-3”. Maybe we can trend this into 2-4” instead. Not sure I can get remotely excited about a C-1” deal

Who the hell is that guy and why would he issue a blizzard watch almost a week out?

This is more of a semantics argument. I think Don is really just saying “this behaved a lot like other storms on model guidance that would easily hit us at D6-7”….you see some actual hits in the Op runs plus a bunch of close calls and the ones that weren’t hitting us were trending in a good direction until they weren’t. But there was a time where it looked very realistic. It wasn’t a clown range fantasy or something like the GGEM continuously showing the storm at D5-7 but no other guidance agreeing with it. It behaved like many systems that would hit us. But that’s part of the challenge in this field….we aren’t smart enough to calculate millions of perturbations in the atmosphere…otherwise we wouldn’t need model guidance.

Yeah we lost the blocking that retrograded from Scandinavia. I actually would've liked to see that stay because it's a nice orientation for us....but I'd gladly roll the dice with that newer look too.

NAM def trending signficiantly deeper with the northern stream while dragging the southern vort more....just like it's daddy, the Euro.

Little vort rotating down....18z NAM now has it too and gives BOS a few tenths of snow.

That's very hard to do in February. Average highs are well into the low 40s by the end of the month in Boston. So to have over half of the days below 32F for a high is really putting up some cold anomalies.

Yeah you have a little bit of WAR showing up.

1980s had some good march storms. They were pretty awful other months though. March 2013 through 2019 was a pretty good period. 2014 was annoying because it was like a top 5 coldest March but we couldn’t buy snowfall. NNE cleaned up though that month. We came close to a historic big dog in March 2023 but that nipple low really killed us in eastern MA.

I was walking to the seaport every day for work from south station that winter and even Boston harbor was completely frozen until late March. At the peak of it in late February and early March, you couldn’t see open water looking out east. I think it was frozen solid at least 5-6 miles out when we looked at satellite. The of course it was frozen much further than that when you looked at Cape Cod Bay and Nantucket sound. You could prob walk from Ptown to MVY in a straight line that month…right over the bay and across the mid cape and then across the sound.

ORH and BDL set their all time monthly cold records. BOS would have if the station was Logan airport the whole time but they narrowly missed out on the old station record which was inland a bit.

The crazy part about that pattern is we left a couple events on the table too. That’s how favorable they setup was. We had that 1-2” event on 1/31 that was trying to blow up and give us 6-10/8-12 briefly on some guidance…ended up destroying downeast Maine instead…and some of the second half of February stuff didn’t quite amplify but it was there for the taking. Not that we could ever complain about it’s amazing how many shortwaves just wanted to produce. The craziest one is still the 2/7-2/9 event…I remember a bit over a week out we were all saying “could be a brief milder period with a bit of thawing before we reload”…and yeah, like 90% of the country did torch for a few days but that arctic boundary draped SE from Canada over New England and we ran those ripples of low pressure under it and we stayed cold. I remember the first day or two of that event it was like 70F just south of DC and well into the 60s in S NJ. Crazy how it broke in our favor….now we’re paying for it.

See if they can do that for ORH and BDL too. We might need to wait for them to degrade a further half degree to be outside of the “calibration error” of 2F. I still can’t believe that’s the tolerance interval. Does anyone ever talk about that or do we just pretend that being off 1.5F is normal?

I dunno, the excitement of seeing the low shift from Buffalo to Detroit might keep us on the edge of our seats. We know all the weenies in Detroit and Milwaukee are dueling it out.

This is like viewing the Mansfield stake at 3300 feet…except it was BOS. What a 6 week stretch. You even had these little refreshers too mixed in with the big dogs.

Euro continues to dig the northern stream more and more. Actually produces 1-2” over SNE because of it. What a kick in the nuts…even a little more southern stream and this could’ve been big.

Ensembles on both GEFS and EPS have a decent cutter signal around D10 too. Hopefully that trends into a SWFE look or we’re doing a carbon copy 1980s pattern as it goes back into the arctic freeze behind it.

Ineedsnow is like the sunfish you kept catching at the lake off the dock when you were a kid. You’d throw it back in the lake and then it wound still get hooked when you threw the bait in a minute later. Hooked by the NAM.

One of the red flags on that euro run too was the eps had a large cluster further east near the rest of guidance. I remember there being two distinct clusters of lows on the EPS. Not what you want to see when you are going with historic snow totals.

Yeah I remember being really bullish in the Mar 2013 storm because of the euro and EPS. Another complex phasing interaction. Also nailed Mar 2017 when the other guidance (esp gfs) was trying to keep BOS all snow, lol.

It never lost 2013. You might be thinking of another storm. What happened is other guidance latched in but then lost it around 84h and everyone freaked out but euro came in that night and smoked us still.

On the flip side, the Euro has sometimes completely schooled guidance when it's on an island with a biggie....February 2013 blizzard comes to mind as the most ridiculous one. I think it flew solo for like 3 runs in a row. But usually you want to see at least 2-3 runs in a row. A single rogue run I don't really count. The January 2015 blizzard is prob the only one true monster in SNE I think it really struggled with to some extent in the last 15 years....but the GFS was garbage in that one too. RGEM was the one that nailed it inside of 48h.

Northern stream has been trending deeper so I think there’s a good chance we see some light snow. Chances are low for absolutely zero. But prob pretty high for C-1”. Vegas line right now might be about 1.5

Don’t bet against the euro when it comes to big dogs. Still superior on that front. Sure, maybe it fails on a few moderate events and we make fun of it, but if you’re hoping for a biggie and it says no, it’s gonna win.

Yeah. It’s pretty close imho. I think for much of the 2000s/2010s this area averaged more but the longer term means are likely very close. His area prob averaged more in the 1980s/1990s. There seemed to be a higher frequency of elevation events during that period…and then of course a really huge run for eastern MA snow weenies in the 2000s/2010s…unfortunately we started taking that run for granted and didn’t expect such fast regression the last 2-3 years.