ORH_wxman

Like I said to Tip yesterday…Ensembles until 12z tomorrow. Otherwise you just end up flip flopping with each OP run that comes out.

Yep. There’s prob some sleet contamination too. He’s outdoing even his usual obsessed weenie self. I’ve honestly been through like 10-15 icing events in ORH more interesting than this one.

You realize that isn’t radial ice, right? If you got half of what was shown, it would be a nuisance event.

Yeah there is definitely a cluster of later phasers. It could go either way…we’re still 5 days out. This isn’t like it’s 2-3 days out.

Yeah colder than 06z by a tick. I’ve notice the earlier parts of the transition in ptype have trended colder the last couple runs even if the ending has been similar…wonder if we’ll see tomorrow afternoon/early evening trend colder NW of the CF as it gets inside of 24h. The mesolow early on has looked a little more defined.

3k tries to wash out the sleet line for a couple hours. Reminds me of 12/16/07. Won’t be as much snow as that one but something to watch

I think people need to also understand the difference between flat ice and radial ice accretion. The flat ice is a newer way to measure it but it’s not the same as radial…it’s less. Radial ice was the old way. A half inch of radial ice is way more impactful than a half inch of flat ice….flat ice is roughly half the impact. (About a half inch of flat ice is the same as about a quarter inch of radial ice)

Agree that is a better chance for some impactful ice. Ineedweenies just doesn’t remotely get enough QPF as ice.

Doubtful on big ZR and big damage. Not enough QPF falls as ZR

It’s somewhat close looking at euro. Here is 12z tomorrow

What storm would’ve given over 6” here? Had exactly 6” in the 1/19-1/20 event. Clipper in Dec gave 6”+ to ORH but not where I am. I was a bit too far east.

It’s already a glacier. Add 3-6” with sleet on top, a little ZR, some cold rain and a quick refreeze…piles could become pretty impressive despite the fact we haven’t had an event over 6” all season.

Look at h5 at 144. That would probably be going on for a while

Heavy rain at 33 is still going to run off. If you can’t freeze it or absorb it, it’s gonna produce some localized flooding. Hell, even during the historic ice storm in 2008, the street was like a river running down it on winter hill when I was outside around midnight while trees were starting to snap. It’s because it was coming down so hard that the accretion rate wasn’t super efficient and we were losing a ton of QPF to runoff. We had like 3” of QPF in that storm but it didn’t all accrete as ice…and that was at 30-31F…when it’s 33-34 you aren’t accreting anything.

That looks pretty aggressive in S NH.

You don't get much ZR at all on Reggie....mostly a sleet bomb there.

Mesolow doesn't form quick enough for all frozen there...you're going to get in-situ icing that brings you to 33-34F....you won't really lose any pack, but it's gonna be cold rain for a time. Need a much quick transfer....still possible, but pretty much no guidance keeps you all frozen now except maybe skynet.

3k is coming in flatter too. Nice thump on that model.

It’s actually quite amazing that I’m sitting at sub-30” for the season and have had almost continuous snow cover since 1/11 save maybe 2 days. We haven’t even had big time cold either…it’s just been a lack of torches and a lot of continuous “seasonable cold” temps. Hopefully this is the system to get this winter into respectable potential. If we scored double digits from this system, then respectable is within striking distance.

NAM def flatter than 12z…but not shocking considering it was most amped.

Prob like a solid 12-18 is the realistic high end scenario for us when you look at the pattern aloft. Yeah, there’s a few plausible exotic evolutions that might give us 2 feet but they are at the tail end of the distribution of outcomes. I think I’d want to see H5 stall this thing a little better for the 20”+ threat to increase…and I don’t mean like stall for 36 hours or anything…more like capture it in just the right spot and enhance the goods for 4-6 hours which is usually what turns our 12-16 inchers into 20-24 inchers. We all know most of the snow falls inside a 12-18 hour window, but having 8-9 hours of super intense rates versus 12-15 hours makes the difference.

My guess is there’s a bunch of members that aren’t even “registering” as lows. Basically your failed phases/whiffs way off southeast and it skews the mean.

This looks a bit suspect to me given the climo of SE NH on CFs and CAD

I think we’ll see the sfc reflection do some small messenger shuffles in the final 24 hours as the models “see” the syrupy airmass. Doesn’t mean we won’t torch aloft up to MWN but we often see the sfc getting shoved a bit SE as it tries to run into that arctic brick wall. I also noticed the 3k NAM was really struggling to bring sfc front north even when the 12k was trying to.

I’m not even looking at OP runs other than pure entertainment at this stage. Show me ensemble mean and spread until we get to tomorrow night or sunday.