ORH_wxman

I’d love to know what Logan has…that band sort of redeveloped back over them. They’ve been getting ripped for about an hour now.

Eyeballing at least 4” now. I had reported eyeballing 2-2.5 about 30-35 min ago so we’ve had at least 1.5” in the past half an hour in this band.

Wow you got 10+ in the 2/7 storm last year too. Gonna get a little more in that this storm. Nice!

We’ll have to watch that a little bit later. Inflow tries to get going right before it exits and it could re-enhance the returns over eastern areas mid-morning for a few hours.

I’m just on the NW edge of this yellow band…it’s crazy

Easily nickels and quarters in this band…they are the classic “hooked dendrites” making those aggregates and they are stacking up with very little wind. It’s probably 20+ to 1 in this band right now.

Absolute rippage now…really starting to light up on the south shore now too. They’ll play catch-up

Always good to see these obs again KBOS 071000Z 35007KT 1/4SM R04R/2000V4000FT +SN FZFG VV004 M02/M03 A2978 RMK AO2 P0001 T10221028 $

Eastern areas may have a surprise or two between 12z and 16z or so too…some of the guidance tries to enhance the precip before it exits eastward…as a response to the intense vort smashing up into the cape area.

Just inching in now…meanwhile it must be going crazy in BOS right now and metrowest

That band reminds me a lot of the super bowl Sunday storm last year. Similar spot too. Hopefully it lifts just a shade more north.

Eyeballing about 2” out there. Maybe 2.5” That band is right in my doorstep so we’ll see how the next 90 min goes.

Wow. Nice band going

Quick radar shot before another nap

HRRR looking better early on too. Esp down in CT with this initial push.

Rap improved again. Gonna be interesting to see how this behave early tomorrow. The eastern low definitely seems to be the dominant one going forward but it has trended west on the short term guidance.

Yeah it didn’t look quite as good as 18z though it was really close. Splitting hairs.

Took a bit of a nap earlier but now see that the latest runs of the rap and hrrr have started to come back west. We’ll see how this progresses the next 2-3 hours but this is go time now. The 04z hrrr has the eastern low becoming dominant around 7z. Previous runs already had it happening by 05z or 06z so I’d say that is a good sign. I also like what I see on radar.

It’s definitely all about the convection. Those uglier RAP runs and HRRR runs are chasing. We’ll know how real it is later this evening.

18z euro was a little better than 12z imho.

It has subdued somewhat. It’s still good but not insane like earlier.

I’ve talked about this storm before (you prob were not in SNE for this as you would’ve been back in Ithaca still ripping beers)…but I remember getting convectively robbed in the Feb 28-Mar1, 2005 storm. 8-12” forecast turned into like 5-6” because this massive blob of convection formed just E of LI and tracks over PYM and the Cape…it was snow there and they got 5” per hour. Our old friend messenger got 13” in 3-4 hours and 16 total I think. While back in ORH we got robbed. That was obviously a negative bust for me but thankfully we got a positive one 12 days later on March 12, 2005 when a 3-5” forecast turned into 11” from a pseudo IVT coastal.

Also usually a sign that TSSN is possible

Central WV is getting crushed right now. Doesn’t happen too often there west of the mountains. Usually a snow hole but not today.

This is definitely a true nowcast system. Pretty fun. Difference between 4-6” and 8-12” is going to be that convection and whether it actually disrupts the conveyor or not.