ORH_wxman

Lol you knew jspin would bite on the scooter post.

Jan 2019 was pretty legit. Coldest max high at ORH since Jan 1994. Last year I think many of the rad spots went below 0F pretty easily but ORH had a low of 0F. Second year in a row not breaking 0F. Last time that happened I think was the 2000-2001 and 2001-2002 winters.

Ensembles looked a bit more bullish last night…but yeah, can’t really say much else when it’s 7-8 days out. Maybe an outside chance at something Thursday/Thursday night too. Some of the guidance actually had a storm offshore but the onshore flow was causing OES on the south shore…Ray might want to fire up a blog post about that.

Jan 2005 was. 2015 was more capturing a storm trying to escape to Bermuda and slingshotting it up east of the Cape.

I think there’s truth to both theories. We know for a fact that even in places where 6 hourly measurements were occurring 40-50 years ago (like ORH for example), the number of large storms has increased quite a bit. So we can’t just blame it on measuring technique. But our ability to observe snowfall remotely has increased incredibly since even 30-40 years ago so narrow jackpots are much easier to find/identify now.

It was an interesting event and one I’ll want to look over in more detail the next few days. The PVA was really strong and in an almost perfect spot to maximize lift which undoubtedly helped take advantage of that strong ML fronto….but we never were able to get the conveyors cranking which is too bad because it prob would’ve been widespread 8-12 with 18 lollis if it did…but we have no room to complain where we are considering how well we did. And while I understand eduggs’ sentiment on convective feedback, it is a real thing that we’ve seen happen. Even on short lead time, but usually you won’t have every single model showing it at 24 hours if it’s spurious. However, the convection can still be real but the models are overdoing the conveyor disruption…and that is really more what was being followed last night rather than hoping the convective feedback was mostly spurious. It’s not necessarily a binary event. If the convective interference was being overdone by even 30 or 40%, then that would matter.

Sunset to finish today. Perfect timing too. Sun only popped out in the past hour

That happened to me shoveling at the end....I was wasting a bunch of time figuring out what was wrong with my snowblower that by the time I was shoveling at the end, things were starting to compact a little bit. The first 75% I shoveled was blower powder but then near the end it was seeming a little denser with having more trouble scraping the bottom layer off the driveway.

You're not losing it on Sunday....lol. Maybe if you had 3" of feathers you would but you have a half inch of liquid in there. It's not a ton, but it's not getting wiped out by a few hours in the upper 30s or even low 40s if that was the case. But in order for it to survive longer, it will definitely need some additional events on top of it....even in cold weather it's going to sublimate slowly.

No I doubt it....maybe on the Cape it could be where they spend most of the day in the 40s....but for the rest of the region its prob just a few hours in the 35-40 range before FROPA late afternoon/evening....and parts of the deeper interior may never even get above freezing. For example, the Euro actually keeps ORH to BDL in the mid 30s as highs.

EPS was "liking" 1/16...I used the quotes since it's not a super strong signal, but it does have a mean closed low pressure near or just SE of the BM.

I'm expecting this to compact down to about 4" glacier by the time we get FROPA on Sunday night. It'll prob already be down to 6" or so by tomorrow night even before the brief warmup Sunday.

Next "events" for those wondering: Small events: Maybe minor ZR threat Sunday? This shouldn't be a big deal and mostly for the deeper interior, but we've already seen a couple of these throw roads into chaos. Monday has a windex threat...mostly for NNE but even SNE could see something Thursday has had a clipper system showing up on a few runs....looks fairly weak, but sometimes you get a band. Wouldn't expect much right now. Bigger events: Next weekend still has a signal for potentially something bigger...but no guarantees. None of the OP models today were biting on it.

Thanks for the detailed post. I’ve always despised the model snow maps (or clown maps as I call them) and this is another great description of why they stink. They are fun to look at for sure…but they do often cause a lot of confusion and often inflate expectations compared to usual.

Yep. This was a good one for many. Out here we have a steady mood snow now in that lighter band.

Congrats. Mine didn’t work today…lol. The gear shifter is messed up. Prob a rusted gear wheel inside but not 100% sure. Thankfully there’s an older dude around the corner who repairs snow blowers so he’s gonna look at it tomorrow. At least this was a good storm to not have the snow blower. It was rpettt east to shovel this champagne powder. Only annoying part was the denser snow banks at each end of my horseshoe driveway.

Getting some nice little bands rotating in. Not accumulating too much from these but coating up where I shoveled…might pick up another couple tenths

Just over 10” here. Getting a nice band right now though as a little finale

Nice last hurrah of heavy snow for southeast MA right now

Yeah it's fine...but definitely been a bit lucky recently. But there's some sneaky elevation heading back into parts of Milford, Hopkinton and even my part of Holliston where 300-500 foot elevations are commonplace and that also helps a bit. But there will be some storms at some point where Ray's area cleans up. There's a reason his area averages probably mid/high 60s. Even though the Methuen snow weenies can't fathom a jackpot right now, lol.

Nice....your tropical fruit orchards there will be buried.

I've been really fortunate in Holliston since moving here. Managed several jackpots/near jackpots. But knowing the area very well I am aware that the worm can turn easily the other way. My cousins grew up here, so I was here a lot as a kid.

Pretty decent bands in metro-west the last hour....not like the PYM stuff, but still solidly moderate to maybe marginally heavy at times

May have to watch for windex on the arctic front next week...NNE would be favored, but some of the runs have good PVA down in SNE as well.