ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Euro actually had some really light snow with that. Even a stripe of 1” or so along rt 2 and prob a coating for pike region. But it needs some help to be more than a nuisance. Definitely possible though.
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Good signal on EPS but plenty of spread a week out
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No that is the first system that is a longer shot imho. It could produce something but I’d favor the one behind it which would be next weekend.
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Gets shunted way south but that’s a nice look overall. I like the really strong northern stream there.
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Euro is definitely cooking up something big at 156 here.
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Yeah this is a lot of shortwaves in the flow. I feel like the event afterward has more support but can’t ignore the Thursday night/Friday deal just yet.
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My pack is getting pretty ripe/dense. No longer a fake effect fluffer pack. Around 5-6” but it’s gonna be a glacier by tomorrow morning. It’ll make a good bottom base layer on our march to 3+ feet OTG by early February.
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Up to 39 now. Ice almost totally gone from driveway.
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Nice stalled Miller b on GGEM. Lol
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The near-sfc in-situ CAD ZR events don’t accrete on elevated surfaces very well because the drops aren’t supercooled. Literally a few hundred feet up is probably above freezing. Usually when the cold is a bit deeper, the drops become supercooled so they freeze on contact with trees and power lines. In this case, they need some time to glaze, so they drip down and mostly freeze on the ground.
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37 and light rain here. Starting to get some of the ice melted off the driveway.
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Up to 32F here now. Doesn’t look like ZR will be a huge factor thankfully. Driveway is already pretty icy from hard packed snow that turned into a glacier so hoping a few hours of 35-40 can take care of that.
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May he have an entire week’s worth of ARW runs smoking N VT.
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Good animations there. The STJ is an interesting addition recently. It should make things really interesting. Northern stream is still dominant which is good for New England (unlike some years when it’s congrats M.A.) but adding extra STJ moisture could make it more exciting.
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If you go back another 5 years you get Xmas 2002 also. I remember a couple 40-burgers NW of ALB in that one.
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I remember they had 40”+ but don’t remember 50. 50” is really hard to get because the compaction becomes a major issue. Even if you clear every 6 hours.
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You prob wouldn’t get screwed much in a Miller B anyway unless it was compromised like that euro solution…which in that case, it’s not a major event anyway. But that look has potential if we can get a little wave spacing…you can see the Atlantic storm causing just enough interference…but all of this is easily correctable at 7 days out
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Ray is furiously typing up a blog post about potential ocean enhancement on the south shore.
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Not the same exact map but you can find very similar ones here: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis
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Here you go…this should clear up any uncertainty:
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That was a really nice looking euro run even if we didn’t get totally buried. You can see all the opportunities there. I do not think it will be a boring week of model watching coming up.
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Scooter jackpot that run? Ray is all warm and fuzzy inside now ready to hammer out a blog post.
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Euro cooking up a Miller b for next weekend. Id also watch that Thursday clipper. It has some room to amplify more on guidance. I know Tip and I have mentioned it a couple times but sometimes those are sneaky when everyone is looking ahead past that date. Low probability but you could see aloft how it wouldn’t take much to change it.
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All joking aside, I’d be pretty surprised if most of New England doesn’t get a few good events in the next 2-3 weeks just looking at the pattern.
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Yeah you can tell jspin and the VT crew is secretly ready to melt if there aren’t any big ticket upslope events soon or a huge QPF base builder. A coastal that croaks NH and ME but doesn’t stall up near CAR might put them over the edge.
