ORH_wxman

The ensembles kind of smear the 1/15-16 and 1/17-18 threats together....so it almost looks like the same system on the ensemble mean but when you look at OP runs or individual members they are coming from different shortwaves.

Yeah that is storm #3....that one is different than the weekend threat (1/15-16) that is seemingly DOA. I think that storm #3 for 1/17 (or 1/18 on some guidance) has a legit chance.

Normal snowfall for ORH at this point is 23"....for his area, it is maybe a couple inches less.

Clown range is probably going to look pretty good on a lot of OP runs going forward for the next week because the pattern out in that time range is pretty nice-looking and conductive to larger events.

Can we get 150-200 miles in 96 hours? I think that's the best hope.

It seemed reasonable. When is the pattern breaking down though? Maybe that's the difference in perception....your post implies we have maybe 12-14 days left? I dunno....that might be true, but it's not evident yet at least on the sub-LR guidance (like 15 days out). That guidance would imply we're not breaking down any time soon. At any rate, I'll start sharing the sentiment that we're running short on time if we make it past 1/20 with nothing imminent and a pattern change for the worse finally showing up. In the meantime, we have a very favorable PAC with a northern-stream dominated pattern setting up for the foreseeable future. That's typically what we want to see here for larger ticket events.

He's nowhere near as good as Tannehill. Tannehill was a marginal top 10 QB even in Miami....but it got overshadowed with the rest of the dumpster fire the roster was.

Both systems are low probability, but since Friday isn't trending weaker/faster, it's going to muck up Sunday...so the hope is Friday comes in enough to give something. But the most likely scenario is both events whiff. But no time to sulk like a baby if that happens, because there are still a lot of bullets in the chamber....1/17-18 looks decent too.

I'm rooting for Friday to come in more amped....don't think the bahamas low is getting us, but the main PJ shortwave is actually half-decent and it could turn into something like an advisory event....that's what I'll be hoping for to tide us over until next week when the D8-9 threat looks better.

Not even close for Sunday on Ukie...drops a PV lobe down into NE. GGEM did this too on the 12z run.

Ukie has a light event for Friday.

GFS decides to go with shortwave #3 for a good storm on 1/18. I feel like one of these will work out, but I'd rather get Friday out of the way. There isn't enough room to amplify that unless it goes totally nuclear aloft.

That streamer goes all the way through S ORH county and to near UUU.

Beast must have gotten several inches? That streamer seemed to be near them oscillating all night.

LL lapse rates are like 9C/km tonight....watch for windex squalls up in NNE/CNE...they may get down to the pike region in SNE, but I'd def favor further north toward Ray if anything was gonna happen in SNE. Too bad we didn't have a little more moisture pooling or it would have a chance to be higher end.

That is a very realistic possibility.

Agreed. There are going to be plenty of chances though it looks like. There seems to be another potent shortwave behind the weekend deal too if that one fails.

I mean, that’s pretty much exactly what I’m getting?

I didn’t quite have that much. About 10.5 here. Prob 5-7 miles S in Milford had a foot though. They spent longer in that great band.

I mean, i prob only had about 0.2 extra of QPF? You prob had around 0.4 and I had maybe 0.6? 0.7 if generous.

It’s still full coverage here. 3-4” of dense ripe snow in most spots though maybe more like 2” in the most exposed yards on the street. Glad the ice pack is off the driveway though.

Ensembles have a super strong signal at the end of their run which is like 1/24 or 1/25. Prob no true breakdown until February if that is close to correct. Things can always change though. We’ve seen that enough already this season. But I’m pretty optimistic.

Can’t believe how strong the anomalies are in the EPO region for that far out. Very strong signal.

I would never guarantee at 5 days out that you are good. But right now Friday looks fine…but definitely keep checking.

EPS looks like a super cold pattern for a lot of the CONUS at the end. That’s major arctic express there