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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Yeah the northern shortwave is the last one to come on shore, so hopefully the northeast height trend is real and the northern stream shortwave trend is spurious....but I'm not holding my breath.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Northern stream shortwave is way stronger this run...so that is going to wipe out any advantage I think in the northeast. Strong northern stream just send this due north from what we know in past runs. Too much whack-a-mole with this system.
  3. ORH_wxman
    12z Euro does look like it's coming in a bit more suppressed with heights in the northeast through 54h vs 06z. The southern shortwave isn't much different...so I'm guessing this one should come east a little from 06z.
  4. ORH_wxman
    I don't think there's much hope for a major snowfall, but there's still the difference between like 8-12" and 2-5" on the table which is a pretty large impact from a sensible wx standpoint.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Only reason I'd still hold out for a bigger solution is that we are still 96h from go time...if we were 72 then I'd be resigned to an Albany or CT River track. But outside of the GFS, there isn't much support for something more favorable. Pending the Euro obviously, but I do not expect it to improve much, if at all, based on other 12z globals. IF Euro comes in flatter and ensembles also show that trend, then I think there is renewed life in this.
  6. ORH_wxman
    That's a solid tick west from 00z which tracked from NYC up into S VT.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Still tracks it well inland...roughly IPT/ALB/BTV
  8. ORH_wxman
    GGEM is quite a suppressed through 48 hours compared to 00z....but that doesn't necessarily mean a ton considering the 00z GGEM tracked this storm through ROC.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Maybe some drizzle at the end? That doesn't even look saturated above 900mb.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it kind of starts compressing those lows as they gain latitude....we want to see those compressed and elongating more E-W....if H5 starts elongating E-W, then it will try and produce a redeveloping ML center to the east. Even if the eastern ML center doesn't become dominant before reaching us, just having it develop will help a lot as it will slow down the WAA.
  11. ORH_wxman
    If we can have that southern stream bulge out to the east a bit, we can prob redevelop a mid-level center. You can almost see this happening on the GFS at 96 hours....look at that kink in the 700mb heights and how it's even seen a little bit at H5....if we can have that poking east just a bit even if the actual H5 center is further west, then that would help a lot
  12. ORH_wxman
    That's essentially a wash with 06z GFS....there are some really minor differences, but not worth getting out an electron microscope to analyze a 90-96 hour solution. We had counter-acting trends on that run aloft...we had better confluence holding to out north and east, but the southern shortwave was a tad slower that run which allowed it to amplify and "Catch up" to the 06z run later on...I think some spots further south were a little colder this run too, but again, small differences.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Only potential "negative" is the southern stream is a tick slower....so that could cause it to make up ground a bit later...but the heights are definitely noticeably lower over NE, so I think that hopefully ends up causing a less amped solution.
  14. ORH_wxman
    GFS looks a bit more suppressed than 06z on the heights out ahead of it at 48 hours.
  15. ORH_wxman
    NY State...even if this ticks east some it will be in NY State probably....since the western solutions are in SE Ontario to near MSS....lol.
  16. ORH_wxman
    It's the NAM, but I'm only looking at 54 hours (not 84) and the northern stream shortwave is a lot weaker this run and the Friday system is hanging back quite a bit while the southern stream is digging a bit more south....I think this would create a better slingshot solution for NE.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Yeah prob more like 8-12 then a slot. But if we can nudge this east enough to get the low over the Cape, then we could see some amounts marginally over 12"....kind of like March 2017...I think I had 13-14" in that one before getting slotted. On the flip side, we can prob sell amounts over 8" if something closer to the Euro happens.
  18. ORH_wxman
    He needs a few events from '07-'08 to take me to the shed.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Yeah the midlevels actually look decent and not a total Bruce Willis job. I think that would actually argue for more precip west....but I'd want to see some other guidance nudge like the NAM before getting too invested.
  20. ORH_wxman
    If we can get that band back to here, we'd prob pick up a couple inches. It's just about here on the 12z NAM.
  21. ORH_wxman
    You can see how the 06z run has come back east a good tick
  22. ORH_wxman
    EPS coming back east some too.
  23. ORH_wxman
    GFS was def better at 06z. Need to see the euro come back east some.
  24. ORH_wxman
    I just got up to look, but EPS looked west. Like way west. Not a single member is southeast of us now
  25. ORH_wxman
    Rgem doesn’t go out far enough but the Friday storm hangs back this run and the southern shortwave sped up vs 18z. So that combo would def make it eastward. We’ll see if those are real trends or just false flags by the JV team.
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