ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Yeah that was good but it also hit RI good and a chunk of SE MA…not a “true” cape special but I guess it was pretty close to one.
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We haven't had a good Cape Specials in a while. Usually you'll one of those 8-12" deals out there when we smoke cirrus (or get 1-3") about once every other or third year, but we haven't had any recently. I honestly can't remember the last one....was it March 2014? I feel like maybe there was another one a couple years later but struggling to remember any. Maybe in 2018, I dunno.
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18z NAM kind of reversed the trend from 12z....a bit juicier in southern areas while cutting back to the north.
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Well we lost the 1/22-24 dual deal...both of those will fail. But the 1/25-26 clipper/redeveloper is looking alive and well. Some of the guidance including the Euro gets southern stream involved too which will add to some of the model chaos, but I think there's a legit chance of a good event even without the southern stream.
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Gonn have to watch that 1/25-26 deal. Euro/GEM/Ukie all have something.
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Euro basically held serve from 06z. Might have been a little better for eastern areas and a little worse for western areas. But nothing big.
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Ukie likes that clipper too for a redeveloper situation.
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RAP and HRRR are drying up pretty substantially on post-12z runs. Not a trend you want to see.
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I'm honestly not sure what to expect in February....model guidance still wants to have a monster Bering Strait ridge....which is NOT a warm pattern overall for us. But if the PNA goes negative enough, we could end up with the SE ridge getting us too much like it did in December....but part of me thinks that's pretty unlikely as that was an extreme -PNA that is unlikely to persist that long again. Typically those only last a few days.
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All the 12z mesos got a lot drier....FV3 too. The one exception might be the HRRR.
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1-2 inch event. Maybe someone gets lucky with 3
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It was worse south, better north. So perspective i guess depending on where you are.
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Looked better than 06z for here.
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06z NAM backed off. Now looks like most other guidance. Might be close to final solution. Hopefully one more bump north at 12z today.
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Yeah if the NAM and GFS slink back SE at 00z and converge on an 18z euro solution, then we’re screwed outside of south coast towns. But I’m starting to think this may keep coming NW for another couple cycles. I like that there is a little bit of southern stream energy infused to get this going. Anecdotally, I feel like those trend more amped a bit more frequently than not.
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Here’s the difference between 12z and 18z. You can see how another similar move would bring the fronto goods into SNE.
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For euro standards that was pretty good. Like a 40-50 mile shift. One more bump like that and it would look like some of the snowier guidance.
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Definitely still some red flags on this threat. Gonna need to see some solid improvement on euro to get confident. As much as the euro has not been it’s dominant self recently, it still is not typically going to be that far off inside 48h so hopefully we see a bump here soon.
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It’s starting to develop a wave. These things aren’t purely binary. Either way, looks like GFS held serve. Would like to see some bumps N at 00z from the rest of guidance.
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RGEM went SE vs 12z....still has it, but it's a bit lighter.
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SPC has marginal risks down there. NAM is by far the most robust of guidance, but the GFS and RGEM are actually supporting a smaller event. Euro/Ukie are kind of on their own with zilch. If GFS/RGEM ramp up a bit here at 18z, then I'll probably toss the Euro completely.
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I guess the one thing going for this is that the mesos will likely be the ones that catch this first...that's exactly what happened in other similar events in Jan 2013 and Feb 2016.
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3km coming in quite a bit more juiced too
