ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Yeah I was expecting it better too. My guess is the EPS is too amped, but it is closer to reality than the GEFS. Maybe the old 70/30 rule will restore sanity to the wx forecasting world. But knowing this year...prob not.
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Yeah we'll see...the classic 70/30 compromise used to work very well...we will see if that happens this time.
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Clusters on the 06z EPS weren't too different from 00z...the furthest west members got erased, so that's prob why the mean ticked a shade east but the overall clusters really didn't change. Funny how this is playing out very similarly to Jan 2015....Euro and its ensembles are the furthest west while other guidance is further east. Before the central/western CT peeps get triggered...it doesn't mean it's going to play out just like that storm did.
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EPS has two clusters. One near the BM and another to the west probably kind of like the Op
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It would actually be kind of funny if after all this, a bunch of people got 6” of sand because of dryslotting. But yeah, don’t want any part of that look.
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Yes. Or have H5 tighten up a little bit so that we’re getting firehosed with heavy precip even if the ML deformation is off to our west…kind of like a Jan 2011 or Feb 2013….you don’t get those nasty dryslots hitting us even though deformation bands are west.
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That run was definitely very eerily similar to Boxing Day in the evolution. Right up to the 500mb dryslot too. Boxing Day slotted so bad because not only did it close off and capture far SW, it was really broad at H5 and tore the dryslot all the way up into SNE. We can sometimes get away with systems getting captured way SW (see Dec 92), but you don’t want this big northward broad push aloft that shoves the dryslot really far.
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Yeah I’m not that worried about stuff like that yet. It’s always an outside possibility but my guess is it looks different as we get closer.
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Boxing Day tracked over the cape and kept the Cf pinned near south shore. This run is similar with the type of CF being pinned pretty far south toward the low center.
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Def coming west of 12z for sure. Even though 18z didn’t go out far enough, it looks more amped than that run too.
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They reprogrammed me. Now I’m talking to copying machines like Albert Pujols in that old sportcenter commercial.
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It’s solution is pretty close to the EPS mean so it’s not like it’s an outlier. Definitely well within the realm is solutions.
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Looks like an inch or so
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There is a nice cluster now on the 00z GEFS that is up toward ACK that was not on the 18z run
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Lol no....I'm just much less afraid of a storm ripping up through ORH than before today. A hugger near the Cape is still a very real distinct possibility, and you don't even need it that far northwest where you are since this is hooking left into the Gulf of Maine....a lot of these solutions that track outside the Cape still hit NH pretty hard like the 00z Ukie.
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Yeah today the trends were pretty decidedly against a 100% southern stream phase. Gotta update the priors. The question is now how much of whatever less than the 100% do we incorporate into the system. I guess something else weird could change in the northern stream but it seems to be pretty steady on most guidance.
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The storm is going to be nearby…we know that much. Really the only major variable right now is still how much southern stream gets incorporated. It’s the difference between maybe a scraper and a cape track roughly. That’s where the realistic goalposts are imho. If we want to get super weenie-ish about 2 standard devs you could prob extend the goalposts a little further to a whiff and maybe something tucked near BOS but that’s getting fairly low probability.
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That was def a jump west on Ukie.
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Even some of these sloppier half-phased solutions are crazy strong. Just shows the higher end potential on this…esp if it gets captured by a closing off H5 and temporarily slows down.
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They are all in an unmarked box somewhere next to the Ark.
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It probably got put in the same storage warehouse as the CRAS model.
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It seemed like every storm that winter I was migrating down there by 4 days out when I saw the writing on the wall up here. But it was fun tracking some of those. You even had kind of a pseudo-SWFE down there where I came in and kept saying “stop worrying that it will hit NC and S VA, this is easily going to trend north.” I think you all got like 8-10” of fluff out of it. It was like a week before the big dog.
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He’s already gotten enough taste of that since last year and now needs to go for a few kills…jackpot a couple storms.
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Yeah I probably wouldn’t go into weenie mode on the air until about 72-84 hours out. Though I’d definitely be dropping hints at D5.
