ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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I have PTSD from Feb ‘89. It was my first massive bust as a young snow weenie as we had just moved back up from Texas.
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18z GFS is already trying. It’s possible it turns into a pseudo overunning deal.
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Yeah that was actually a good trend. Though they were so bad at 12z I was wondering if they could trend any worse.
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Yeah this is a southern stream juicer and they typically go through a period of amping up on model guidance between like D3-36 hours. But obviously that doesn’t have to happen every single time if there’s something else offsetting it.
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That is starting to become a serious problem. I noted it a couple days ago when I mentioned the trough was starting to get a little “pinched” at the top. Now it’s threatening to really screw this up.
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GFS is actually a little faster with southern stream through 24h.
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Yeah but weighed against all the other more-skilled guidance strongly suggests that it is.
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Probably the huge large-scale trough that digs over the eastern CONUS.
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Crazy that the NAM has zero snow in SNE still by 21z on Saturday.
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18z NAM will be more tame than 12z looking at 30 hours....not a surprise I guess given how ridiculous the 12z run was.
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You can definitely tell looking at the EPS members that there are two camps....the more progressive camp and the capture/stall camp....that's why you see all those lows clustered to the southwest near ACK in the 90h panel while a bunch of others are in the gulf of maine.
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EPS are still pretty good...a little east of 06z but there is still a lot of skew to the west side, and there's actually fewer ridiculously east members....narrowing the spread on this run
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It's a bit more progressive as currently modeled, but there's definitely a lot of similarities. Gotta get that capture back south of ACK/MVY....Jan 2015 was able to do that.
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The lesser southern vort injection is definitely a problem for further west solutions....agreed. Everything happens later and northeast the lesser amount we see southern stream phased in. The southern vort phasing in earlier starts curling the flow back to the left faster....when that curl is delayed, everything takes a wider right jog before eventually trying to come back.
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Yeah BOS area doesn't really have much to worry about....they are pretty much inside both goal posts at the moment.
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DE ME looks like they will get crushed. Prob 1-2 feet there on most guidance.
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Yeah frequently it is, but sometimes it's real. The convective chasing on this storm has been pretty minimal so far...but it definitely seemed like that run did it a little. I would've expected more QPF to be thrown into central/western SNE based on these two frames:
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Donuts and coffee just strewn all around the cruiser.
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It's def east through 66 hours. But it's going to capture this at some point so we'll see how far east in the end.
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if I had to take an educated guess, it prob ends up slightly east of 06z....there's two competing forces....southern stream is dragging worse but the northern stream looks healthier and more meridional.
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Def hanging back the southern stream more....but northern stream looks better.
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Yeah I think they could still pull a 20 burger band out there....the question is how far does this swing to the right before being pulled back NNW by the ULL capturing it....some of the runs that didn't take a big wide right turn earlier were better for SW CT and NYC...they get more WCB precip on the front end whereas on the wide-right/hook back left solutions, the WOR crowd is relying more on pure CCB/deformation backing into them and they lose some of that front end precip.
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I would definitely be sh**ting in my pants if I was WOR, but I would be far from calling off a big solution there.
