ORH_wxman

I just sent to Megan.....

I was just gonna say...."wait until all the 18z guidance and HRRR/RAP bring back the historic crush job only to get nut-punched again later"

Yeah it's honestly going to be interesting....I think that feature is real, but the magnitude is what it is question. If you get the upper iar forcing to overcome it early enough (like some guidance shows), then you still have a historic crush job for most of SNE....but obviously the Euro decided not to go that route on this run....though I'd be careful for those who think that is not still a monster storm for eastern areas...the deformation band would prob go right through metrowest on that run and everyone would claim the models busted because they got 2 feet anyway....

Its running away with this....check your SLP map at 24 hours and it's right where I circled H5:

Elongated low FTL

The LavaRock MOS output

I think they upgraded to a Gateway 2000 last year.

Yeah but it's a fact that 12z guidance has definitely backed off on a larger region-wide historic storm....it's still historic for SE MA, but that is different than what we were seeing on previous cycles. Honestly, there really isn't much more to parse for SE MA and far E MA....they are going to get crushed. But for the rest of the forum, there is a lot to sort out. Now, it's another question altogether whether we actually believe the 12z runs so far...I'm thinking they are probably going to little too much with the elongation idea and the Upper levels and mid-levels look about as good as they can be....

We are only talking about E MA now?

His statement wasn't false....12z guidance has definitely toned down a little bit.

Yes

Thje DGZ is super deep on a lot of these soundings, so I'm guessing that is where those ratios are coming from. I'm skeptical of huge ratios....but they will be over 10 to 1.

Yeah prob your area down 495 and over to 128....as the best H7 fronto hugs the coastline and the best banding will be a bit west of that.

If the low elongates too much, then it ends up robbing us of some WCB precip....that's why some of the solutions are more tame. But some guidance is grabbing the low quick enough and dragging that WCB back into the cold side and forming a monster CCB....even the GFS is able to partially do it this run which is why E MA gets annihilated.

I can't believe all the western peeps are worrying over the RGEM/NAM when it still gives E MA 2 feet.

It's not a big deal for eastern peeps....but I does limit some of the westward expanse of the heaviest precip.

Reggie definitely very elongated low

We already know a beast is coming....but there's a real difference that can occur in the magnitude if capture is delayed a bit.

Well it doesn't last....even on this NAM run it gets yanked back down to south of MVY....I think the biggest issue is the timing of it. I'm trying to think of any high-end storms that had something similar....2015 started to become very brieflyt elongated before being captured, but nothing like what is being shown on guidance.

It has a rotting outer band long after the storm is occluding

NAM still captures it south of islands. Just took longer this run.

If it waits until gulf of maine, then yeah, that would limit the amounts in SNE to merely exceptional instead of "Record threatening"

You would as long as the capture wasn't too far NE...like say it was captured just east if ACK/CHH instead of south of BID....then that would help you.

The low eventually gets captured anyway because H5 is just so strong, but the dual low can act to delay the capture a bit further northeast.