ORH_wxman

A lot of guidance really hammers eastern areas later this morning.

Getting smoked right now.

BOS 18” ORH 17” PVD 18” BDL 13” first and last call. There will be a band of 20”+ on south shore and another somewhere 495 or metrowest. I don’t quite think we’re gonna do widespread 2 feet but I admittedly keep staring at H7 and doubting myself, lol.

Steady light snow here. Been slowly picking up the last hour. Prob a few tenths down on all surfaces. We’ll see how things look in the morning but precip backing in nicely

That would only be in the band though and not for the whole storm.

Because the euro makes small jumps and clown shows like the NAM make large jumps…we’ll go with that

This has always looked like a total beast aloft for SNE since early in the week. It’s just that bizarre convective train going fishing in George’s Bank decided to show up late last night/today on guidance.

I don't find it very useful outside 12h for verbatim solutions but having it trend for several hours is often a hint.

Euro coming back and both HRRR/RAP trending better....this one's gonna be a beast.

He’s now like Al Michaels when he will unabashedly talk about sports gambling in the middle of the broadcast…he knows he’s a legend and doesn’t give a shit about playing it safe. That said, Harvey did this in the 2/15/15 storm too. He was basically the only met who stuck to his guns on huge snows in E Ma despite model guidance trying to give us a pedestrian advisory event. Sometimes the upper air is just so overwhelming. I also think he knows that there’s the fluff factor to lean back on….if the storm ends up a bit more seaward, there’s still the exceptional ML/Deformation that will have incredible snow growth and maybe winds not quite as strong in that scenario.

Didn’t like York or Ogunquit put up a 24 burger in that? Like 10 miles away had 5”

Reminds me a little of the disconnect between sensible wx output and the upper air in the 2/15/15 storm. The model guidance was shoving this massive WCB out east and up into Maine (where blizzard warnings busted iirc) and being paltry over SNE despite obscene height falls south of MVY/ACK

It will definitely be ripping tomorrow…but the key is do we lose some of that WCB injection. That is the difference between like a 15” storm over metrowest and a 25”+ storm.

Is bet dollars to donuts the EC goes east at 18z. All the guidance has except really the NAM which started out east but recovered late.

I’m sure you saw my post to Ryan with the coupled jet maps. It is so bizarre to me. This isn’t even like Jan 7th when the forcing mayb have wanted the afc low further west but it was kind of meh for strength so convection could overcome it…this time, it’s a monster coupled jet with big dPVA.

GFS goes to George's Bank...lol

Yeah this doesn't exactly scream "strung out low....lower impact storm for SNE"....it's literally how you would probably draw it up on an idealized setup

Yeah my gut says we see a bit of a trend to consolidate the low again somewhere near or just S of the Islands...or maybe just E of CHH....I'm a little skeptical of those solutions where it doesn't do it until its over George's Bank when you have this ridiculous upper air support several hundred miles southwest of that.

Actually latest 20z HRRR took a nice jump west tomorrow AM...more consolidated low. So maybe there's a trend there with the RAP we can work with?

RAP has been improving since 18z....hopefully its onto something.....HRRR has been getting worse. Glad there's good short term model agreement on the trends.

Yeah 3k wasn't quite as good as 12z....still a very good run though. Minor difference.

I'm sure it will have a blizzard for ACK while BOS has 3" of sand.

I've noticed that on the lot of the short term guidance, that massive QPF bomb has been creeping north slowly so that we're seeing it over LI....I'm wondering if that just ends up creeping NNE across the sound into SE CT.

That might actually be a better solution than 12z...esp for the deformation tomorrow midday/afternoon.

Goes nuclear at 21-24 hours.