ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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My guess is ice zone is probably pretty narrow in this system. That said, it’s possible that narrow zone ends up over SNE. NAM might be pretty icy at least for a chunk of SNE if we extrapolated another frame….but worthless endeavor on the NAM
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Schwoegler had thunderstorms in E MA for that one two days out before it trended way colder.
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NAM is going to be more suppressed than 12z. Not really in range yet, but the signs are pretty clear by 48h, so it's not 100% useless on that front.
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EPS cancels the Feb torch....what a tragic bust by the weeklies if that's right.
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Yeah I know what he was talking about....but it doesn't really mean anything. Strong highs don't have to press more than models show them. Models could just be overdoing the high. I tend to put more stock in the high strength and magnitude of cold when it's already established over us. Once they get established, they are VERY hard to move. IF this one can get established out in front, then its not going to be rain....but we obviously don't know if it gets established or not.
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No he's saying the base of the mountain had 2" for the month (while 8k higher up had 6")....he wasn't talking about the depth (base) of the slopes.
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Yeah but press where? Yeah, it might might press more, but it does it press BEHIND the storm and not in front of it?
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Again, the high strength itself isn't the question....it's the orientation of it...does it press down to the east prior to the wave gaining latitude? The Euro says not enough outside of NNE. It might be too amped, but don't make the mistake of just citing the high strength...it doesn't mean much if it's not established over our region prior to the storm. If that high was sitting up over Quebec City prior to the storm, then I'd say it matters way more.
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Euro has been over-amped all year. Could easily slide south some.
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The problem is the high is a beast, but the storm makes it here before the high presses in...so the high could be 1060mb and it wouldn't matter. The key is getting that high to press down prior to the storm arriving.
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Looks more amped at 54h than 06z. Though the southern stream hanging back in the southwest looks weaker...so it could change in the next few panels.
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If you had to pick a clunker month out there, a warmish January after a record-breaking December would be the way to do it....you can enjoy the obscene base depths without having to bundle up. Kind of like skiing on corn up here in late March after an epic month or two.
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Yeah, I'll usually say to myself "stop bitching and whining about first world weather problems, you did the worst 4 consecutive seasons on record when you were 7 to 10 years old, you can handle a crappy month or two"
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That's actually a good way to look at it. I do that sometimes when it's been awful here...I'll say "at least this isn't the late 1980s/early 1990s when ORH went 4 consecutive seasons without a 10"+ snowfall.....nothing was as bad as that".
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I just went into my 2014-2015 winter folder to look at some images....and I'm not kidding that this was in there:
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That was Jan 2014....brutal month up there. Above average precip and frigid temps, yet it was mostly rain when the precip fell, lol. Even though we had more snow down, I hated that month....those cutters were just awful. I had these slabs of ice that got really bad on the walk and driveway because even though the cutters were torches, they didn't last long enough to make the glaciers melt. Thankfully it got way better that next month in Feb 2014.
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Yes agreed. But as Morgan Freeman says in Shawshank, "Every man has his breaking point".....sometimes you just start downing the scotch at 4am and look at 09z ARW runs wondering why Stowe displaced to Boston.
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Sfc gets frigid, but yeah, the midlevels have a layer that stays just below freezing so it reads that.
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Yeah there's actually a good reason to get back on the horse. Your latitude really could help here.
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Fixed
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Didn't take too long to get you out of your basement watching reruns of the Mar 2018 radar loop while eating a gallon of ice cream. This one could be really good for you though.
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A little more amped than 00z even....no surprise though since RGEM came in more amped...GGEM and RGEM almost always follow eachother.
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Man, that would prob crush Scooter and his south shore pals too with OES enhancement. Nothing like ENE/NE -10C air at 925 with some salt nuclei to help the cause
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Classic '94 overrunning event....also remind me a bit of the Mar 6-8, 1996 event too.
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Yeah this is going to be a snowy run for a lot of the forum including NNE.
