ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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NAM is coming north this run
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They shifted south solidly like the OP has.
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GFS is winning the battle so far, but it's not over. If we look at the past 24 hours....the GFS has only come north about 40-50 miles from the 12z solution yesterday while Euro has come south about double that amount. But all it takes if for the Euro to hold steady next run and the GFS jumps north 40 miles, and we're about tied with a 50/50 compromise.
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That was definitely on the larger side of moves you would typically see from the Euro at this range. But this is a pretty delicate setup...small difference early on will have larger differences later.
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Gets advisory snows after the flip down to about Kevin....eastern coastline might get OES enhancement late in the game Friday afternoon/evening....like -8C temps at 925mb coming out of the NE.
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Euro looks like it's going to be a little more suppressed than 06z....but gotta watch the southern stream....it's a little stronger this run but the cold press is stronger too.
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Might be the "Broken clock is right twice a day" scenario for the Ukie.
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06z euro had plenty of snow in CNE/NNE. It was just less juicy down here by the time it flipped over.
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Looks like all snow there on Ukie
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I think he was looking at the 00z run...you aren't below freezing until after 12z Fri on the 12z run. It's not 50s and rain though either for you.
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It was pretty far south at 00z....that was a good bump north. Doesn't mean it's right... 12z Fri, the freezing line is near CT/MA border on the 12z run....it's down near the south coast on the 00z run. That's a solid 30-40 miles.
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Ukie is way more amped than 00z. GFS loses an ally.
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Yeah looked a shade more amped....no surpise given what we just saw from the RGEM
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Prob down in CT somewhere....my gut says prob mostly south of you, but maybe you get in on it. Hard to say yet since it's fairly narrow.
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Wrong thread
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Yeah, phin over to dryslot is looking solid....the bigger question is does this come south enough to give warning snows to the pike or the MA/NH border...or does it bump north and introduce a bit more sleet there, but I still think you'd flip to plenty of snow anyway.
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Dude, we all have a general feeling of how these often trend....but that doesn't mean there's no exceptions. I think everyone is kind of expecting a bump back north at some point, but the question is do we trend this a little colder first. Southern stream juicy overrunners will try and bump north late in the game in my experience.
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My gut is a compromise to the north....so I'll prob get a lot of pellets/ZR.
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Congrats Ray
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Def a tick warmer at 72h aloft, but juicier....that's trouble for the ice areas
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Looks really similar to 06z. Its a tick colder over NE at 63 hours but a tick warmer over PA...so that southern wave might try and push north.
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Still there.
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Trended colder....I guess that model can be used very lightly for trend purposes....but I'd never use it for verbatim solutions.
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12z RGEM came in warmer than 06z....still really torchy. It does flip everyone over eventually, but a lot of qpf wasted on rain. Even CNE gets a good slug of rain before the flip.
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FWIW, the 3km looks even just a hair colder than the 12km.
