ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Nah, nobody will get anything like 2008 ice unless this breaks absolutely "perfect" which it won't. Probably not enough QPF for that and the icing zone is pretty narrow...too much sleet.
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The final solution very well might be a 50/50 compromise between GFS/Euro from about 2 days ago (assuming the 12z NAM isn't correct....if it is, then the Euro wins). GFS was clearly winning at this point yesterday, but since then we've seen more of a drift north, so now we're more like 50/50 compromise.
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Yeah kind of surprising to see it actually coming in colder.
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The difference on the NAM though was that it clearly had the sfc front much further north than the euro...once it gets south of us, it drains pretty quick....the weird thing about the Euro was that it wasn't cooling the BL very fast when the sfc reflection was pinned down at he south coast and we had this monster arctic high to the north....where's the floodgates opening up for the ageo drain? It's like it wasn't there.
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Yeah I was briefly thinking you might score on this one....but you get porked again being too far south for good snow. You might get a lot of ZR/IP though....lol. Your area will likely drain the cold in the low levels pretty efficiently.
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A lot of the hi-res meso models have a mesolow that goes out toward Cape Cod overnight tomorrow night and it drives the sfc cold down into MA....that's something that would have to be watched as it would create a big icing problem if it verified.
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We need to sit around the camp fire with powderfreak....
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Sfc front gets stalled over or just south of the pike region on the 3k for like 6-8 hours. Anyone south of the sfc front will be flooded with warmer air. We'll see...might be wrong. Sfc features will be the hardest for models to resolve. They'll get the nidlevels a lot easier.
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Furnace south of the pike tomorrow night on the 3k...Kevin gets his 50s and rain.
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That is pretty ugly for snow south of phin-IZG
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Wonder if euro is doing its usual bullsh*t of too much diabetic temp heating. It’s like as soon as the sun rises, it refuses to drop the sfc temps.
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Yeah I would understand it if the sfc front was kind of straddled over us but the euro has it WAY south when it’s still above freezing. Like it rots ORH near 32 despite the sfc front down near the south coast….it’s like neutral temp advection for 6 hours despite a frigid arctic high to the north and clear northerly ageo flow.
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My guess is the other guidance is more correct. You have a weak strung-out sfc reflection and a very dense low-level arctic airmass to the north….what is going to resist it?
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Euro is definitely all by itself on the surface/BL cold pressing in very weakly.
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Seem like about an inch of cold rain and then a lot of sleet/ZR here after that. Hopefully we trend it a little snowier….but I guess that’s all better than the 50-60F torching rain that was shown several days ago.
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Sharper cutoff on the snow though. Doesn’t get as much into CT. Lots of IP/ZR there.
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Definitely colder. More snow to the pike this run. Nice hit for Ray.
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18z euro is stronger with initial cold push but it’s noticeably more amped in southern stream so that may win out. We’ll see.
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Wasn’t much of a move north. A little bit lol….we’ll see if the euro tries to come south again but it seems like 18z is the trend north cycle today.
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18zGFS making the expected march northward here.
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Icon was still pretty cold. Esp low levels but it was definitely warmer than 12z. I can envision the midlevel warmth winning out but low level cold oozing down so that we end up with a bit more IP/ZR than currently modeled.
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ICON was a solid tick warmer too....pretty clear 18z trend so far.
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It actually ended up more amped in the end....it was definitely suppressed early. It has some pretty decent icing though late in the system, because it's far juicier after the temps crash than the 12z run was.
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Reggie finally trending colder this time...though it still has a lot of work to do to get to the colder model solutions considering it was probably the warmest model at 12z.
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Yeah and this is where icing could cause a problem...if we start trending both the press and the shortwave stronger, there will be more WAA aloft but CAA low levels which would widen the area of icing.
