ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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This could actually be one of those events where some ice happens in lower spots because the in-situ CAD would be extremely shallow. Like ORH could be 34F and raining while ORE or FIT is 29F and ZR.
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It’s kind of a faux sfc track though because the upper air is way west…we get this weird IVT out ahead and the flow at 925/850 is due south. The storm might as well be over ABE. By the time the thing consolidates it’s way northeast of us. Just another turd setup really that masquerades as something that “should” look good for us.
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Interior SouthWestern Maine is in a good spot for this one. I could see Shawnee being close to the jackpot.
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Yeah most guidance is a disjointed mess which probably means this is mostly a non-event until you get to Maine. Could be some marginal advisory snows from N ORH into interior NH but the disjointed look sucks…gonna want to trend it into more of a closed circulation aloft to make this more interesting.
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Yeah the recent euro runs have been almost nada for SNE…non-event.
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Not sure what to think on this one. Safe bet is to just say almost nothing except N ORH county for SNE and then a narrow stripe into interior NH and W Maine but there’s still some major differences on guidance. If 06z GFS is catching onto a legit trend, then it could get more interesting. Would still need to trend a little more. My guess is the 12z suite will clarify things more…and I’m not expecting much of anything interesting for most of SNE.
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It’s kind of a putrid system on a lot of these runs. Mostly the IVT out ahead of it…a few runs like some of those NAM solutions are a little more real…those are what it will take I think for more than 3-4” of paste…maybe a few spots could try and pull 6” in the IVT scenario but they would prob be isolated.
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Parts of central/western CT too where they didn’t get as much from the 1/29 system.
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12z EPS:
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Nitpicking, but can’t really use percentages since he has a different average than you. Gotta use standard dev. But anyways, you had an epic ratter but also a season near your average in 2018-2019. Don’t really want to derail this thread any further though. I agree with the larger point that Ray’s area isn’t egregiously unique in the past 4 years…maybe just somewhat. I’ll be western MA gives him a run too.
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If you go by just since 2000, Ray prob averages over 70”…so his deficit would look even worse the last 4 years. He was using long term climo numbers.
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Yeah that’s the system that has had some larger scale support. If there’s a big dog in this pattern, it likely comes from that trough.
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No pretty much nothing for your hood. Maybe starts as a few flakes but goes to rain. NW CT sees some.
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Yeah euro was ok but was hoping for a better trend. Had advisory snows for ORH county and east slope of berks.
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Prob had good ratios if it was anything like up here. We got about a half inch of arctic fluff that was prob 25 or 30 to 1. I went outside and I was able to walk completely on top of the pack without sinking…lol.
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Why? The distribution could be similar. 900-950mb is going to be an issue down south. You might be far enough north but it wouldn’t surprise me if it’s mostly N of pike too. But we’ll see. It’s trended a little bit cooler so far at 12z.
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I don’t think it’s a direct CIPS analog but MLK 2010 was a really marginal airmass that hit the pike/495 belt pretty good with 5-10” of paste with mostly rain elsewhere south and east.
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I wouldn’t expect much anywhere yet but it’s definitely starting to trend better which is a good sign (as opposed to being great at day 4-5 and trending worse)….and we’re less than 3 days out.
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Yeah it lessened the IVT a bit that run which helped.
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MLK 2010 redux?
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Wow. 495 N and W.
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You should move.
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Weeklies back in January we’re definitely pathetic about the first half of February. Busted badly.
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Yeah some of the other guidance actually hits 495 west into ORH region pretty good. So hopefully models trend more toward that today.
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We need the closer tracks because most of the precip actually falls out ahead of the low. So by the time the low makes it up here the forcing is northeast except for the stronger/closer lows which might CCB us with snow.
