ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Every piece of guidance will show solid warning criteria for most of SNE at 00z and then the euro will drop a turd on our screens at 1230.
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You gotta be, what, >50% confidence in 6”+ for a county to issue the watch? I def wouldn’t issue one yet. I think I’d issue one tonight for a chunk of SNE if we see the euro partially move toward the GFS and the GFS doesn’t shift too much SE.
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Difax machine is what spit out the old model panels before everyone had internet to just view them online. Almost any TV station, NWS office, and university weather department had them.
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Mean QPF did get a nice boost.
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They had no choice based on where 09z was.
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How often does the euro suite get its ass kicked inside of 72 hours? My guess is a compromise but it may be skewed toward Euro. But one of these model suites is gonna cave massively. If it’s a choice between Canadian suite and Euro suite, I know which one I’m choosing to cave the most.
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Don’t forget the FWC MOS….I think that’s what everyone called the NGM MOS back then.
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Definitely a red flag for the big amped solutions. I’m still hedging compromise at this point.
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70 microbars crosshair sig will do some quick damage on the snow pack front.
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That snow hole from New Haven to Norwich doesn’t really make any sense on that map given what’s going on east and west of them.
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Ukie went east a bit. I don’t think it’s going to be correct verbatim but still clearly some pretty decent spread on guidance.
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Yeah this could easily be rain early but flip to several hours of mod/heavy snow near the end for SE areas. I want to see the euro come on board for a much further NW track before making that type of forecast. I’m still favoring compromise until we have clear evidence we shouldn’t. Euro just finished disemboweling a lot of guidance in the 1/11 event.
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Yeah incorrect application of the messenger shuffle term…it’s a SE term and it usually happens once inside of 36h (frequently inside of 24)
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Yeah you might almost get a pseudo-pivot on that. It’s moving quickly but as this thing tries to scoot a bit ENE late in the game with the deepening mid-levels, someone could get hammered for 2-4 hours.
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When looping it vs 06z the track is very similar but the QPF field might be slightly more compact on the 12z run. Prob mostly noise.
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Then maybe just a tick west again at 60h…essentially the same track. Wobbling every 3h.
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Looks a tick east at 57 but very close to 06z
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I’ve seen them be very stubborn before and then cave late. Esp RGEM. But they can still be directionally correct in the mean….in other words, the flatter models will trend toward them. GEFS and EPS don’t have any members as amped as them so I think the RGEM/GGEM eventually come east at least somewhat. I’m still going with a compromise.
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And furthest west EPS member still tracks just east of CHH while OP RGEM tracks into interior SE MA.
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I was expecting Canadian suite to come east a bit like 06z did….someone is going to be quite incorrect inside of 60 hours.
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The thing is….it’s the NAM that’s slowly caving right now and not the other way around. I do expect the western outliers (Canadian suite) to start drifting east but I’m not expecting a wholesale shift SE to where most of SNE is getting just scraped by this thing.
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Most are famine…it’s been a very good pattern for upslope snow so anyone on the NW or W side of big mountains are going to be doing well. Hopefully we start getting some more synoptic events going.
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NAM isn’t going to be correct. I’d prob not be putting out 6-10 totals yet but at least telling people that a decent snowfall is a very distinct possibility for Sunday afternoon/night. Even the 3k NAM is a lot more organized than the 12k.
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That kuchera map is def taking advantage of ratios on 06z euro.
